David Weathers has given the Reds great results for the past three seasons. No doubt about it. If I met the man, I'd shake his hand and thank him for a job well done.
However, as reasoned out many times by many people on this board, he's not a good bet to produce those good results in the future. So I don't want him on the 2009 team. I think it's a pretty reasonable stance to take.
Yep. You pay a guy for the results he's going to give you. He's already been compensated for the work he's given us so far.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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Since every ballplayer ages and ultimately their skills diminish, you're bound to be right about this at some point. And you might even be right this year, but it doesn't hurt to acknowledge that just saying it, doesn't make it so. I'm inclined to stay in the camp that Weathers new contract is not a bad one and isn't necessarily in and of itself a detriment to the club's season.
But I do acknowledge that you'll ultimately be right some day.
“In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"
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And this is a great point. Alone, the $ burned on Weathers doesn't hurt the Reds. But, combined with the money wasted on Hairston and Taveras, the $ burned on the three of them combined is significant.
I hope Weathers proves me wrong, he's certainly done so his entire time in Cincinnati. I just fear that the closer he is to 40, he'll stop proving me wrong.
If Dusty makes it through 2009, there's no way in hell he's going with Todd Frazier over EE at 3rd, I don't care how many errors EE makes. Unless EE gets hurt for a significant portion of the season and Frazier comes in and fills in for him, he's not going to be starting at 3rd come 2010. Even if EE gets hurt, all they will do is slide Keppinger in there. Another thing is that the Reds have to find a position for Frazier. Last year he played 3 or 4 different positions. MLB is not the place for on the job training. Usually, if a guy hasn't found a steady position it means he's probably not that good defensively. Frazier may come up and make us long for the glory days when EE was there. Gonzo will more than likely be gone after 2009 so that means that the Reds will have to get a veteran via trade or free agency or they are going to have to go with someone like Janish or Valaika. How many people think Dusty's going to go with an all rookie left side of the infield?
Lets look at it from a different standpoint-completely ignoring age. Weathers now has a below average K rate (about 1.5 ks/9 lower!) and walk rate for a reliever. He's still got ground ball tendencies but they aren't nearly as pronounced as they once were. Just assuming Weathers puts up identical peripherals in '09, the Reds just shelled out $4M to a below-average reliever. That's not a positive.
Now look at his '08 LOB% and we see that he stranded an unsustainably high number of runners (81.5%). If that swings back to normal, he's in for some brutal innings.
It's pretty tough to be optimistic about Weather's in '09.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
He's kind of running out of ways.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Is it correct to assume that this season, both at the ML club and in the minors, that we're going to start seeing what we have to trade? If Frazier and Valaika do well; if Alonso progresses and Votto and Bruce continue to grow (or maintain what they did), if EE and Phillips continue, then we ultimately have significant surplus to start moving some chips. Now I know that's alot of "ifs", but best case scenario says we'll have to start making some decisions. And not all of these guys will necessarily continue to be Reds. It's a good problem to have, if everything falls right. And that's without even mentioning the staff. This season might be nothing to write home about for the big club, but I'm liking the future's potential.
“In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"
The Baseball Emporium - Books & Things.
The Baseball Bookstore
http://tsc-sales.com/
http://tscsales.blogspot.com/
http://silverscreenbooks.com/
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