Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

[Mario-Rijo]

If Dusty makes it through 2009, there's no way in hell he's going with Todd Frazier over EE at 3rd, I don't care how many errors EE makes. Unless EE gets hurt for a significant portion of the season and Frazier comes in and fills in for him, he's not going to be starting at 3rd come 2010. Even if EE gets hurt, all they will do is slide Keppinger in there. Another thing is that the Reds have to find a position for Frazier. Last year he played 3 or 4 different positions. MLB is not the place for on the job training. Usually, if a guy hasn't found a steady position it means he's probably not that good defensively. Frazier may come up and make us long for the glory days when EE was there. Gonzo will more than likely be gone after 2009 so that means that the Reds will have to get a veteran via trade or free agency or they are going to have to go with someone like Janish or Valaika. How many people think Dusty's going to go with an all rookie left side of the infield?

Well if the losing doesn't stop someone has to get canned and that someone isn't at all likely to be good 'ole boy Walt. Perhaps they think they will get away with canning Jacoby at some point and lay the blame at his feet, who knows. But Dusty is no lock although I could certainly see reasons why Bob might keep him, seeing as how Bob knows little. That said money walks and you know the rest. And Edwin especially if he has a big season with the bat will be due for another big increase next offseason and the offseason after that he'll be a FA (right?). Money will force him out the door regardless. And if Frazier can get some meaningful time at 3B this season he's a certain lock for 3rd (plus any other open spot) next season. He has enough experience at SS and has the kind of intangibles that could equate to a rather quick move to 3rd.

I'm not saying it's a lock but I'd lean heavily in that direction. SS who knows, but I doubt that decision will have much to do with the other in reality.

[Danny Serafini]

Ok, so through 2008, we've all been wrong about David Weathers...

This is 2009, and I have no doubt that we'll all be right about David Weathers.

The problem is people had no doubt he'd fall apart in 2008. And 2007. And 2006. Oops. It's almost become the boy who cries wolf at this point. Sooner or later he'll fade away, but he hasn't given me reason to believe he's going to fall off a cliff in 2009. I don't want to lock somebody at his age up long term, but a one year deal at a salary that isn't exorbitant doesn't bother me one bit.

[membengal]

Even if he doesn't have a drop-off, the money spent on him (and the others in the pen) have crippled this team. That's a problem.

[jojo]

The problem is people had no doubt he'd fall apart in 2008. And 2007. And 2006. Oops. It's almost become the boy who cries wolf at this point. Sooner or later he'll fade away, but he hasn't given me reason to believe he's going to fall off a cliff in 2009. I don't want to lock somebody at his age up long term, but a one year deal at a salary that isn't exorbitant doesn't bother me one bit.

Weathers has had below average peripherals for a reliever really since 2006. In '06 he had a shiny ERA due to an unusually low BABIP and high strand rate. In '07, similar peripherals and another lower than normal BABIP. In '08 same story but another higher-than-normal strand rate.

So the problem isn't that Weathers "has proved" naysayers wrong by looking better than his peripherals. The problem is that the Reds are paying Weathers for something that is out of his control rather than for a repeatable skill. Meanwhile his velocity continues to drop.

Even if the argument that Weathers could control BABIP and LOB% was valid (it's not), in order for Weathers to replicate his last several years, one would have to bank on him being dramatically better than his career norms in either one or both parameters. Why would one expect that?

[princeton]

The problem is people had no doubt he'd fall apart in 2008. And 2007. And 2006.

I thought he was done in 1999. I haven't discounted him since

Stormy's interesting. He'll look horrendous for 6 weeks, then do some really great work for several months. eventually he'll be done, but it'll be hard to know when.

but if the Reds had known their February budget and the February market, Reds would have passed on Stormy.

[blumj]

Even if he doesn't have a drop-off, the money spent on him (and the others in the pen) have crippled this team. That's a problem.

Exactly. It's not who, it's what. They could all be Mariano Rivera and it still wouldn't make sense to spend 25% of their total payroll on relief pitchers unless they were loaded with inexpensive talent everywhere else.

[membengal]

That's it in a nutshell, blum. When they were spending-spreeing through Weather/Rhodes/Lincoln, I assumed that there was plenty more where that came from to address the other needs on the team. Apparently not. And, since it was apparently not, again, if Jock knew about the limited budget as he was burning through that money on the 'pen, it is GM malpractice of the first order.

ETA: It's looking more like 30% of their total payroll on the pen. Which is simply insane.

[REDREAD]

Exactly. It's not who, it's what. They could all be Mariano Rivera and it still wouldn't make sense to spend 25% of their total payroll on relief pitchers unless they were loaded with inexpensive talent everywhere else.

But most of that money is spent on Cordero.

2 million each for Lincoln and Rhodes is a good investment. Does anyone dispute that? I guess some people would rather throw kids into the fire, but IMO, that is not wise. The team had to sign some veterans to fill out the pen.

I agree that it was a mistake to offer Weathers arb.

I guess I don't see how spending money on the bullpen this winter has crippled the team. I can see the argument that Cordero is an expensive luxury for this team, but that decision was not made this winter.

The scenerio where the Reds don't sign Lincoln, Rhodes, Weathers, Gomez, and Tavares, don' trade for Hernandez, and then somehow use that money to give Abreau a one year deal would still result in a pretty bad team. IMO, the Abreu option team would be much worse than what we have now, because the bullpen would be a major liablity. Also, relying on Dickerson and Hannigan to carry a significant load is not wise, IMO.

[bucksfan2]

But most of that money is spent on Cordero.

2 million each for Lincoln and Rhodes is a good investment. Does anyone dispute that? I guess some people would rather throw kids into the fire, but IMO, that is not wise. The team had to sign some veterans to fill out the pen.

I agree that it was a mistake to offer Weathers arb.

I guess I don't see how spending money on the bullpen this winter has crippled the team. I can see the argument that Cordero is an expensive luxury for this team, but that decision was not made this winter.

The scenerio where the Reds don't sign Lincoln, Rhodes, Weathers, Gomez, and Tavares, don' trade for Hernandez, and then somehow use that money to give Abreau a one year deal would still result in a pretty bad team. IMO, the Abreu option team would be much worse than what we have now, because the bullpen would be a major liablity. Also, relying on Dickerson and Hannigan to carry a significant load is not wise, IMO.

I think the decision to offer Weathers arb was a good decision. I just don't think the Reds thought this FA market would turn south so quickly. Look at Affeldt. He signed a good contract right off the bat. I am willing to bet that many of the current FA's are kicking themselves because they didn't act quickly or turned down good deals.

A bullpen without Lincoln, Weathers, and Rhodes could be a disaster. Relying on young guys to pitch well right off the bat is a recipe for disaster. If the young guys pitch well they will pitch.

I wonder what really happened for the Reds to say most of the signing is done. Maybe it was poor season ticket sales. Maybe it was low advertising money coming in. Maybe the overall ticket sales for this year are much lower than expected.

[Caveat Emperor]

Even if he doesn't have a drop-off, the money spent on him (and the others in the pen) have crippled this team. That's a problem.

On the other hand, not having a set of "solid veteran arms" in the bullpen would pretty all but ensure that the starting pitching would be abused by Dusty. It's one thing to put some kids out there and tell Dusty "these are your guys" -- it's another thing for him to actually use them, as opposed to running the starter out for pitch 110+. Guys like Weathers, Rhodes and Cordero are guys Dusty will give the ball to. I'd honestly prefer to see Cueto and Volquez healthy than bellyache about whether Weathers was worth (say that 4 times fast) the dollars spent.

Besides, as has been said before, every time someone has cried "Weathers is cooked!" he's come back and pitched effectively. At this point, I'm putting down the magic 8-ball and just waiting to see what happens.

[blumj]

The Reds need a $20M bullpen to prevent their $10M manager from abusing assets which are of significantly greater value to the Reds than both the $20M bullpen and the $10M manager? Okay, fine, but it's still nuts.

[membengal]

CE: I am not saying "Weathers is cooked". I am saying that whether it was Weathers, or some other arm, that $4 million was a luxury that this team apparently didn't have to spend on a bullpen arm this off-season. I hear your point on Dusty and arm protection of the starters, though, and think it's a good one. But it still doesn't justify the kind of % of salary that this team has spent on the pen, in my estimation.

Redread: I think with Burton and Bray, you have your bridges to Cordero. That's already in-house. Then you can fill in with Roenicke and Herrera before that. It's not ideal, perhaps, but given the economic realities of the Reds' budget, it's a better use of their treasure than what they did, in my view.

I actually still am okay with the Cordero contract and the stablization he brought to the back of the pen. But being who Cincy is, budget-wise, that signing means having to go a bit shorter somewhere else, by definition. I would rather them have gone cheaper in parts of the pen, than where they chose to go cheaper.

[REDREAD]

Redread: I think with Burton and Bray, you have your bridges to Cordero. That's already in-house. Then you can fill in with Roenicke and Herrera before that. It's not ideal, perhaps, but given the economic realities of the Reds' budget, it's a better use of their treasure than what they did, in my view.

I don't think Burton and Bray are enough. Bray just isn't very reliable, and is injury prone. Even if Bray and Burton are both solid, that's a lot of innings you are asking them to pitch. Herrera is not a major league pitcher. He would quickly be exposed and relegated to mop up. Reonicke may or may not be ready. If he's ready, they can make room for him.

Here's what I foresee if we go with the kids. Cordero and Burton are the only pitchers that are trusted when the game is close. Bray is pretty erratic, and based on his track record, he really doesn't deserve to take on a setup role.
Cordero is the closer, so you will see Burton in a lot of games.

2 million each for Lincoln and Rhodes is a good idea. I really don't see how that 4 million could make a bigger impact if spent elsewhere. They are both likely to see a lot of work this season (as is Weathers).

Weathers was overpaid, but it's really not worth getting that upset about.

I just don't think the Reds have enough talent at this point to give 2 or 3 bullpen spots to kids. Even if you think Herrara and Roenicke are ready, you still have to sign one vet.. and then you are bare at AAA if an injury happens.

[fearofpopvol1]

I really think the Reds offered him arb with the hope of him bouncing and acquiring a pick, it just didn't work out that way.

[IslandRed]

I think the decision to offer Weathers arb was a good decision. I just don't think the Reds thought this FA market would turn south so quickly.

I agree. The Reds knew it was a possibility he would accept arbitration, but at the time I don't think they believed he would be back.