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Thread: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's got an average sinker and slider that he can throw for strikes. He doesn't miss bats.

    If he had two plus pitches and plus command, wouldn't BA have him higher than 13th in a farm characterized best by it's depth? John Sickels tends to mention guys like that too....
    I never said he had two plus pitches. I said he has two above average ones. I have heard his slider referred to as a plus pitch, but I have also heard it called above average and so I will go with above average until I get a chance to see it more often referred to as plus by people I know made that assumption on their own merit not by something they heard.

    Still, he doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he induces ground balls and doesn't walk guys while still missing some bats. I don't think its a stretch to see him be a guy who puts up similar IP and ERA numbers to Arroyo (without potentially having a 2006 type season mixed in). They will go about arriving at the final spots differently, but a 3-1 K to BB and lots of ground balls can lead to success even if you are only striking out 15-18% of the batters you see.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    I wonder how much Juan Carlos will pitch in the WBC. Wasnt he one of the netherlands best starters in the olympics?

  4. #18
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's got an average sinker and slider that he can throw for strikes. He doesn't miss bats.
    Just curious, how do know you his sinker and slider are only average?
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-31-2009 at 03:39 PM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #19
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I never said he had two plus pitches. I said he has two above average ones. I have heard his slider referred to as a plus pitch, but I have also heard it called above average and so I will go with above average until I get a chance to see it more often referred to as plus by people I know made that assumption on their own merit not by something they heard.

    Still, he doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he induces ground balls and doesn't walk guys while still missing some bats. I don't think its a stretch to see him be a guy who puts up similar IP and ERA numbers to Arroyo (without potentially having a 2006 type season mixed in). They will go about arriving at the final spots differently, but a 3-1 K to BB and lots of ground balls can lead to success even if you are only striking out 15-18% of the batters you see.
    "Above average" basically implies "plus" (a 60). Parsing the difference between a "55" and a "50" as being definitively meaningful when the instrument recording the numbers is a thumb in the air really doesn't lead to meaningful differences.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #20
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    His sinker isn't going to consistently be anywhere close to 95 mph. If he makes it to the majors, he'll have average velocity. The guy begs hitters to put the ball in play.
    And just how do you presume this? If his trademark is he has good control then his FB may not have to come down, he can continue throwing where he's at now.
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Just curious, how do you his sinker and slider are only average?
    We know what velocity he works and we know he doesn't miss wood. I've also seen him pitch (take that for what it's worth). This isn't a guy waiting to figure stuff out. He's basically going to go as far as command of two average pitches can take him which means he's got a decent chance of logging some back end innings. For the Reds, that means waiting in line in a logjam.

    If that makes him the 13th best prospect in the Reds system, so be it. It's just not something earth shattering.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    And just how do you presume this? If his trademark is he has good control then his FB may not have to come down, he can continue throwing where he's at now.
    I was gently suggesting that the 95 mph velocity was registered through beer goggles....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #23
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    In the Handbook it says that Jordan Smith throws a plus slider but he has a fringy changeup. A 91-94 fastball with excellent sink. It also says in the book he went to the trainer in AA and told him his knee had been bothering him for a while. He took an exam and he had torn cartilage in his knee.

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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    In the Handbook it says that Jordan Smith throws a plus slider but he has a fringy changeup. A 91-94 fastball with excellent sink. It also says in the book he went to the trainer in AA and told him his knee had been bothering him for a while. He took an exam and he had torn cartilage in his knee.
    Thanks for the info New Fever.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I was gently suggesting that the 95 mph velocity was registered through beer goggles....
    Well I don't think velocity is a big deal in this situation. Brandon Webb throws his sinker in the 89-90 area, of course the real reason he get's so many outs with it is his degree of break and direction. His is splitter-esque in that it goes straight down and causes a lot of folks to top the ball which induces the grounder. But the real key to his is how hard and fast it breaks. So I'd say we need more info on Smith's sinker both break and direction would help.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  12. #26
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    I remember the original scouting report on Smith had his velocity as high as 95-96. Of course he doesn't throw that hard consistently but he's definitely got some heat on his fastball. I've always thought he profiled best as a setup man because of his sinker/slider combo, but if he can develop an average or better changeup then he may have a chance at developing into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. I'll be interested in seeing how he performs in Double-A this year.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Notice Travis Wood isn't on the BA list. Wood and Smith had very similar years last season, dominating at High A and struggling at AA. Wood is a year younger, Smith has a bigger frame. Lecure, another guy I like, also didn't make the cut, surprisingly.

    I've always been a supporter of Smith around here because he gives up relatively few baserunners despite not striking out too many. He seems to get by on ground balls and by allowing relatively few walks and few home runs. He has a lifetime WHIP of 1.26 which is excellent for a starting pitcher.

    I'd like to see Smith's strikeout numbers improve a bit, he would then be a more complete pitcher. His lifetime average is 6.4 Ks per nine innings. If he could get it to 7 or a little more, that would be great.

    Glad he got recognition from BA.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-01-2009 at 12:12 AM.

  14. #28
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Notice Travis Wood isn't on the BA list. Wood and Smith had very similar years last season, dominating at High A and struggling at AA. Wood is a year younger, Smith has a bigger frame. Lecure, another guy I like, also didn't make the cut, surprisingly.

    I've always been a supporter of Smith around here because he gives up relatively few baserunners despite not striking out too many. He seems to get by on ground balls and by allowing relatively few walks and few home runs. He has a lifetime WHIP of 1.26 which is excellent for a starting pitcher.

    I'd like to see Smith's strikeout numbers improve a bit, he would then be a more complete pitcher. His lifetime average is 6.4 Ks per nine innings. If he could get it to 7 or a little more, that would be great.

    Glad he got recognition from BA.
    He hasn't had to K a lot of guys yet which could be the reason he hasn't. He figured out a long time ago what many guys take forever too, pitching to contact keeps you in and the team in the game. Not a gaurantee but it's a logical reason. I say push this arm and see what he can do at AAA quickly if he starts off well in AA. This season is gonna be interesting for a whole lot of reasons.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    The emergence of Smith in these prospect rankings is a welcome development, for sure. If I recall correctly, he came late to pitching, maybe converting while he was in community college. If that's the case, he probably still has a a fair ceiling to grow into.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #30
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The emergence of Smith in these prospect rankings is a welcome development, for sure. If I recall correctly, he came late to pitching, maybe converting while he was in community college. If that's the case, he probably still has a a fair ceiling to grow into.
    You're right. He was a catcher/first baseman for Salt Lake Community College but transferred to CC of Southern Nevada to pitch.


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