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Thread: Speed Score

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Speed Score

    Hey folks,

    This thread started with a fantasy debate, but I put it in this forum since I think it has implications for the real game as well. Since a lot of my threads hit the fantasy forum and die, I thought I'd try it here first, but I have no problem is someone wants to move it.

    The debate is with another owner in my fantasy league about whether we should replace the SB stat with SB-CS. It is one of 10 offensive stats we use, and his argument is that we should factor in CS because the most important part of a base stealer is his efficiency, which should be around 3/4 if he's helping his team. My argument is that for the sake of our league, which uses a H2H scoring system, SB is just fine because when a player doesn't manage to get a SB, he is already penalizing his owner by not adding one to the weekly total.

    Anyway, at the risk of turning this into another Willy Taveras thread (not my intention), I'm interested in what people think about this, both in terms of fantasy sports and in terms of the real game. It strikes me that SB are a truly unique stat, because they are one of the only offensive measures that don't revolve around hitting ability. That is, a player's SB ability and efficiency obviously affect his overall offensive value, but his hitting ability only contributes to the amount of SB situations and attempts he gets--not to his efficiency. Right?

    I've seen some pretty amazing, long quadratic equations recently to try to measure the overall effect of player speed, too... and if people are interested in discussing this, I'll go dig them up on-line.

    What say you?

    RedEye

    Edit: I started this with my thoughts on fantasy, but I think a more interesting topic might be speed and baserunning metrics in general--hence the change of title for the thread.
    Last edited by RedEye; 02-03-2009 at 11:12 AM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #2
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: SB - CS

    I think what I was actually thinking of was the burgeoning study of baserunning metrics. Here is one article, for example, that discusses Tim Raines.

    And then, there is the PECOTA "Speed Score," which is described as the following (per the BP glossary):

    Speed Score (SPD) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitter's comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.

    Beginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow).
    I'm sure people know a lot more about this than I do, so I apologize for this sort of "thinking out-loud" approach on this thread. Suffice it to say, speed seems to be one of the more difficult elements of the game to quantify. And, given that James has only been doing this since 2006 himself, it would seem that the saber community has a long way to go.

    Thoughts?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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