Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 13 of 13

Thread: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

  1. #1
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midland, MI
    Posts
    6,410

    2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    ZiPS is no PECOTA but it is free and fun to think about. Here's Dan's work for 2009:

    2009 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
    While Walt Jocketty made a complete botch of the outfield situation, the Reds aren't really as bad as some people are making the team out to play. Yes, the offense should be mediocre, but the Reds are at the point at which the pitching is a solid, not spectacular, plus, and there are still a few good players, especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.

    And make no mistake about it, it was quite a botching. The team replaced Dunn by signing Taveras and allegedly having Hopper split time with Dickerson in left. Yes, Jay Bruce is a better rightfielder than a centerfielder, but so's everyone else and he played quite well in the majors defensively in center. Bruce in center and a couple of the random below-average corner outfielders they have hanging around is a much better outfield than any configuration that has Taveras starting and Hopper getting way too many, courtesy of the Dust.

    Jocketty (and the Reds fanbase) may prefer the Reds to be a team of slapping swifties, but from Publius Quinctilius Varus to George W. Bush, we have ample evidence that making decisions based on the conditions you want rather than the conditions you have doesn't usually turn out that well. The Reds play in an environment in which you need a lot of runs to win and having 2/3 of an outfield that looks like a 1920s Braves outfield doesn't strike me as a great idea.
    Code:
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    CATCHERS
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    AVERAGE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ramon Hernandez          c   33  .263  .326  .418 125 433  49 114 23  1 14  71  35  70  1  1   91   Av 
    
    FAIR
    Javier Valentin#         c   33  .261  .322  .406  70 138  13  36  8  0  4  20  13  22  0  0   87   Fr 
    Ryan Hanigan             c   28  .260  .338  .338  97 308  36  80 12  0  4  31  32  48  1  1   76   Av 
    
    POOR
    Wilkin Castillo#         c   25  .254  .287  .346 129 456  45 116 22  1  6  43  18  63  9  7   63   Vg 
    Craig Tatum              c   26  .225  .266  .356 103 365  32  82 18  0 10  47  20  87  1  2   59   Fr 
    Chris Kroski*            c   27  .209  .258  .330  36 115   9  24  5  0  3  10   6  27  0  0   51   Av 
    Devin Mesoraco           c   21  .219  .251  .330  85 324  21  71  9  0  9  36  13  86  2  4   49   Fr 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    FIRST BASEMEN
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    AVERAGE
    Joey Votto*              1b  25  .280  .353  .490 158 567  71 159 34  2 27  92  63 124 12  7  115  Av 
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    FAIR
    Kevin Barker*            1b  33  .249  .328  .434 114 410  55 102 22  0 18  66  48 111  1  1   95  Av 
    
    POOR
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  29  .291  .343  .384 123 461  54 134 24  2  5  44  36  26  3  2   88  Av 
    Wes Bankston             1b  25  .260  .303  .436 111 415  51 108 20  1 17  64  23  88  2  2   88  Av 
    Javier Valentin#         c   33  .261  .322  .406  70 138  13  36  8  0  4  20  13  22  0  0   87  Fr 
    Adam Rosales             1b  26  .244  .301  .414 121 442  60 108 24  3 15  53  28  96  7  3   83  Av 
    Ryan Hanigan             c   28  .260  .338  .338  97 308  36  80 12  0  4  31  32  48  1  1   76  Av 
    Todd Frazier             ss  23  .240  .293  .405 144 555  70 133 24  1 22  71  40 155  9  8   78  Av 
    Luis Bolivar#            2b  28  .237  .283  .353 108 334  41  79 14  2  7  31  18  77 12  4   64  Av 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SECOND BASEMEN
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    AVERAGE
    Brandon Phillips         2b  28  .268  .320  .440 154 605  87 162 28  5 22  80  41 104 25  7   94  Vg 
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    FAIR
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  29  .291  .343  .384 123 461  54 134 24  2  5  44  36  26  3  2   88  Av 
    Danny Richar*            2b  26  .258  .311  .417 136 508  70 131 25  4 16  63  38  97 11  5   86  Fr 
    Jerry Hairston Jr.       ss  33  .272  .333  .405  57 158  25  43 10  1  3  16  12  27  5  2   90  Fr 
    
    POOR
    Adam Rosales             1b  26  .244  .301  .414 121 442  60 108 24  3 15  53  28  96  7  3   83  Pr 
    Drew Anderson*           2b  26  .239  .282  .389 158 581  71 139 30  6 15  69  33 137  8  5   71  Fr 
    Paul Janish              ss  26  .228  .293  .347 131 447  50 102 21  1 10  46  35  89  5  2   65  Vg 
    Luis Bolivar#            2b  28  .237  .283  .353 108 334  41  79 14  2  7  31  18  77 12  4   64  Fr 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    THIRD BASEMEN
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    VERY GOOD
    Edwin Encarnacion        3b  26  .272  .354  .481 145 507  76 138 32  1 24  78  55 102  4  1  113  Fr 
    
    FAIR
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  29  .291  .343  .384 123 461  54 134 24  2  5  44  36  26  3  2   88  Av 
    Wes Bankston             1b  25  .260  .303  .436 111 415  51 108 20  1 17  64  23  88  2  2   88  Pr 
    Jerry Hairston Jr.       ss  33  .272  .333  .405  57 158  25  43 10  1  3  16  12  27  5  2   90  Av 
    
    POOR
    Adam Rosales             1b  26  .244  .301  .414 121 442  60 108 24  3 15  53  28  96  7  3   83  Pr 
    Todd Frazier             ss  23  .240  .293  .405 144 555  70 133 24  1 22  71  40 155  9  8   78  Fr 
    Drew Anderson*           2b  26  .239  .282  .389 158 581  71 139 30  6 15  69  33 137  8  5   71  Fr 
    Juan Francisco#          3b  22  .238  .259  .419 144 589  56 140 24  1 27  87  16 163  5  5   71  Fr 
    Paul Janish              ss  26  .228  .293  .347 131 447  50 102 21  1 10  46  35  89  5  2   65  Vg 
    Luis Bolivar#            2b  28  .237  .283  .353 108 334  41  79 14  2  7  31  18  77 12  4   64  Av 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SHORTSTOPS
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    AVERAGE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  29  .291  .343  .384 123 461  54 134 24  2  5  44  36  26  3  2   88  Pr 
    
    FAIR
    Danny Richar*            2b  26  .258  .311  .417 136 508  70 131 25  4 16  63  38  97 11  5   86  Pr 
    Jerry Hairston Jr.       ss  33  .272  .333  .405  57 158  25  43 10  1  3  16  12  27  5  2   90  Fr 
    Sea Bass Gonzalez        ss  32  .258  .313  .407  63 221  28  57 13  1  6  27  13  42  1  1   84  Av 
    Adam Rosales             1b  26  .244  .301  .414 121 442  60 108 24  3 15  53  28  96  7  3   83  Pr 
    Chris Valaika            ss  23  .258  .290  .409 148 594  65 153 25  1 21  82  24 127  6  7   78  Fr 
    Todd Frazier             ss  23  .240  .293  .405 144 555  70 133 24  1 22  71  40 155  9  8   78  Fr 
    
    POOR
    Paul Janish              ss  26  .228  .293  .347 131 447  50 102 21  1 10  46  35  89  5  2   65  Av 
    Luis Bolivar#            2b  28  .237  .283  .353 108 334  41  79 14  2  7  31  18  77 12  4   64  Fr 
    
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    CORNER OUTFIELDERS
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF  RF 
    
    VERY GOOD
    Joey Votto*              1b  25  .280  .353  .490 158 567  71 159 34  2 27  92  63 124 12  7  115  Av  Av 
    Jay Bruce*               rf  22  .276  .328  .522 158 613  94 169 32  4 37  98  48 163 10  8  115  Vg  Vg 
    
    AVERAGE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jonny Gomes              rf  28  .239  .337  .478 104 318  50  76 18  2 18  49  39 101  8  4  108  Fr  Fr 
    
    FAIR
    Laynce Nix*              rf  28  .259  .311  .492 111 378  49  98 18  2 22  61  25 103  4  1  103  Fr  Fr 
    Daniel Dorn*             lf  24  .249  .310  .471 111 410  56 102 20  1 23  70  31  98  3  1   98  Fr  Fr 
    
    POOR
    Darnell McDonald         lf  30  .267  .323  .415 122 465  61 124 26  2 13  56  37 104 19  5   89  Av  Av 
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  29  .291  .343  .384 123 461  54 134 24  2  5  44  36  26  3  2   88  Av  Av 
    Chris Dickerson*         cf  27  .235  .317  .413 140 494  70 116 22  6 18  60  56 171 25  7   87  Av  Av 
    Jerry Hairston Jr.       ss  33  .272  .333  .405  57 158  25  43 10  1  3  16  12  27  5  2   90  Av  Av 
    Adam Rosales             1b  26  .244  .301  .414 121 442  60 108 24  3 15  53  28  96  7  3   83  Av  Av 
    Chris Heisey             rf  24  .245  .299  .373 149 579  73 142 28  2 14  59  38 101 24  4   73  Av  Av 
    Norris Hopper            lf  30  .290  .333  .333  69 207  27  60  7  1  0   9  13  21  7  3   74  Vg  Vg 
    Todd Frazier             ss  23  .240  .293  .405 144 555  70 133 24  1 22  71  40 155  9  8   78  Av     
    Sean Henry               lf  23  .250  .302  .385 135 520  64 130 22  3 14  61  35  96 17 11   76  Av  Av 
    Drew Anderson*           2b  26  .239  .282  .389 158 581  71 139 30  6 15  69  33 137  8  5   71  Av     
    Juan Francisco#          3b  22  .238  .259  .419 144 589  56 140 24  1 27  87  16 163  5  5   71  Av     
    Drew Stubbs              cf  24  .228  .292  .353 141 549  67 125 26  2 13  49  48 151 24 13   66  Vg  Vg 
    Luis Bolivar#            2b  28  .237  .283  .353 108 334  41  79 14  2  7  31  18  77 12  4   64  Av  Av 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    CENTERFIELDERS
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 
    
    VERY GOOD
    Jay Bruce*               rf  22  .276  .328  .522 158 613  94 169 32  4 37  98  48 163 10  8  115  Vg 
    
    AVERAGE
    Laynce Nix*              rf  28  .259  .311  .492 111 378  49  98 18  2 22  61  25 103  4  1  103  Pr 
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    FAIR
    Darnell McDonald         lf  30  .267  .323  .415 122 465  61 124 26  2 13  56  37 104 19  5   89  Fr 
    Chris Dickerson*         cf  27  .235  .317  .413 140 494  70 116 22  6 18  60  56 171 25  7   87  Fr 
    Jerry Hairston Jr.       ss  33  .272  .333  .405  57 158  25  43 10  1  3  16  12  27  5  2   90  Fr 
    
    POOR
    Chris Heisey             rf  24  .245  .299  .373 149 579  73 142 28  2 14  59  38 101 24  4   73  Av 
    Norris Hopper            lf  30  .290  .333  .333  69 207  27  60  7  1  0   9  13  21  7  3   74  Av 
    Willy Taveras            cf  27  .272  .318  .331 125 475  70 129 16  3  2  29  32  73 48 10   71  Av 
    Sean Henry               lf  23  .250  .302  .385 135 520  64 130 22  3 14  61  35  96 17 11   76  Pr 
    Drew Stubbs              cf  24  .228  .292  .353 141 549  67 125 26  2 13  49  48 151 24 13   66  Vg 
    
    * - Bats Left
    # - Switch Hitter
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STARTERS
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 
    
    TOP THIRD
    Edinson Volquez           25   3.97  12  11  32  32   181.1  166   80  19   85  180  117 
    
    MIDDLE THIRD
    Aaron Harang              31   4.46  11  12  32  31   204.0  212  101  32   51  184  104 
    Bronson Arroyo            32   4.62  11  14  33  33   202.2  215  104  30   64  161  101 
    Johnny Cueto              23   4.78   9  13  30  30   169.1  176   90  28   55  151   97 
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ben Jukich*               26   5.11   6  10  26  26   144.1  163   82  17   56   79   91 
    Micah Owings              26   5.12   6   9  26  23   133.2  142   76  19   51  106   90 
    
    BOTTOM THIRD
    Ramon A. Ramirez          26   5.36   5  10  35  22   139.1  144   83  27   64  116   86 
    Jordan Smith              23   5.58   6  11  23  23   119.1  144   74  19   34   56   83 
    Matthew Maloney*          25   5.77   7  13  26  26   146.2  163   94  28   63  107   81 
    Homer Bailey              23   5.83   5  12  25  25   132.2  150   86  22   68   93   80 
    Sam Lecure                25   6.12   5  11  25  25   132.1  158   90  25   57   80   76 
    Adam Pettyjohn*           32   6.27   5  14  28  23   145.0  181  101  32   43   75   74 
    Daryl Thompson            23   6.51   4  12  24  24   123.0  150   89  32   39   74   71 
    James Avery               25   7.11   4  13  25  25   130.1  169  103  32   55   63   65 
    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    RELIEVERS
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 
    
    TOP THIRD
    Arthur Rhodes*            39   3.46   4   2  57   0    39.0   35   15   1   21   42  134 
    Francisco Cordero         34   3.48   6   3  69   0    67.1   58   26   6   30   79  134 
    
    MIDDLE THIRD
    David Weathers            39   4.14   5   4  67   0    67.1   69   31   7   29   45  111 
    Bill Bray*                26   4.18   3   3  61   0    56.0   56   26   7   25   58  110 
    Robert Manuel             25   4.23   4   4  40   5    83.0   88   39   9   20   57  109 
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jared Burton              28   4.28   4   4  54   0    61.0   60   29   7   29   52  107 
    Danny Herrera*            24   4.34   4   5  43   2    64.1   67   31   7   21   47  105 
    Kent Mercker*             41   4.45   1   1  38   0    30.1   32   15   4   12   19  104 
    Josh Roenicke             26   4.63   3   4  57   0    56.1   57   29   7   29   49   99 
    Mike Lincoln              34   4.68   3   4  59   0    65.1   66   34  10   23   55   99 
    Carlos Fisher             26   4.70   5   6  52   0    69.0   72   36   7   32   51   99 
    Nick Masset               27   4.76   2   3  33   7    73.2   83   39   8   29   50   97 
    Aaron Fultz*              35   4.83   2   2  34   0    31.2   34   17   4   15   26   96 
    Matt Belisle              29   4.87   5   7  33  13   101.2  117   55  13   24   64   96 
    
    BOTTOM THIRD
    Jon Adkins                31   5.25   2   4  57   0    61.2   72   36   9   19   32   88 
    Pedro Viola*              26   5.33   3   6  49   4    77.2   84   46  12   35   54   88 
    Ron Flores*               29   5.40   3   6  55   0    56.2   62   34   8   31   41   85 
    Justin Mallett            27   6.09   3   6  32  11    85.2  100   58  16   42   53   76 
    Jeff Kennard              27   6.48   2   7  45   0    66.2   81   48  12   35   39   72 
    
    * - Throws Left
    
    ---------------------------------------------
    
    Player Spotlight - Joey Votto
                       AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
    Projection        .280  .353  .490 158 567  71 159 34  2 27  92  63 124 12  7  115    	 
      
     
    Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Adrian Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, Chris Chambliss
    
    ODDIBE
    
    Offense        %
    Top Quintile   22
    2nd Quintile   23
    Mid Quintile   15
    4th Quintile   18
    Low Quintile   22
    
    OPS+           %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
    160+           6       .400+   6       10+     0       200+    1
    140+           19      .375+   22      5+      4       150+    85
    130+           32      .350+   57
    120+           43      .325+   86      2B      %
    110+           59      .300+   98      45+     16
    100+           72                      30+     71
    90+            83
    80+            91
    60+            96
    
    BA             %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
    .350+          0       .550+   16      50+     4       70+     0
    .325+          4       .500+   40      40+     12      50+     0
    .300+          22      .450+   72      30+     38      30+     1
    .275+          59      .400+   94      20+     80      10+     71
    .250+          90      .350+   99      10+     98
    
    (Based on Projected PA)
    ---------------------------------------------
    
    Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
                       AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
    Projection        .276  .328  .522 158 613  94 169 32  4 37  98  46 163 10  8  115 
    
    
    Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Gus Bell, Harold Baines, Shawn Green
    
    ODDIBE
    
    Offense        %
    Top Quintile   29
    2nd Quintile   21
    Mid Quintile   12
    4th Quintile   12
    Low Quintile   26
    
    OPS+           %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
    160+           7       .400+   0       10+     1       200+    2
    140+           20      .375+   4       5+      29      150+    91
    130+           34      .350+   22
    120+           44      .325+   57      2B      %
    110+           59      .300+   88      45+     8
    100+           71                      30+     61
    90+            82
    80+            90
    60+            95
    
    BA             %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
    .350+          0       .550+   33      50+     16      70+     0
    .325+          3       .500+   59      40+     38      50+     0
    .300+          16      .450+   85      30+     70      30+     1
    .275+          52      .400+   97      20+     95      10+     48
    .250+          87      .350+   100     10+     100
    
    (Based on Projected PA)
    ---------------------------------------------
    
    Player Spotlight - Aaron Harang
                        ERA   W   L   G  GS   INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
    Projection         4.46  11  12  32  31 204.0  212  101  32   51  184   104
    
    Top Near-Age Comps:  Juan Marichal, Larry Jansen, Marty Pattin
    
    ODDIBE
    
    ERA     %
    Top 1/3 17
    Mid 1/3 59
    Bot 1/3 24
    
    ERA+    %       BB      %
    >150    3       >34     2
    >140    6       >45     28
    >130    12      >57     76
    >120    22      >68     96
    >110    40      >79     100
    >100    64      >91     100
    >90     85
    >80     95      HR      %
    >70     99      >16     3
                    >23     19
    K/9     %       >29     46
    >204    20      >36     73
    >181    52
    >159    82
    >136    98
    
    (Based on Projected IP)
    ---------------------------------------------
    
    Player Spotlight - Edinson Volquez
                        ERA   W   L   G  GS   INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
    Projection         3.97  12  11  32  32 181.1  166   80  19   85  180   117
    
    Top Near-Age Comps:  Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon
    
    ODDIBE
    
    ERA     %
    Top 1/3 34
    Mid 1/3 61
    Bot 1/3 5
    
    ERA+    %       BB      %
    >150    6       >30     0
    >140    12      >40     0
    >130    27      >50     0
    >120    47      >60     2
    >110    71      >70     12
    >100    89      >81     40
    >90     99
    >80     100     HR      %
    >70     100     >14     25
                    >20     65
    K/9     %       >26     89
    >181    45      >32     98
    >161    78
    >141    96
    >121    100
    
    (Based on Projected IP)
    ---------------------------------------------
    
    ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
    
    OPS+ 140+
    
    Bruce       20
    Votto       19
    Encarnacion 18
    
    OBP .400+
    
    Votto        6
    Encarnacion  6
    Keppinger    2
    
    SLG .550+
    
    Bruce       33
    Votto       16
    Encarnacion 13
    
    BA .325+
    
    Hopper      15
    Keppinger    8
    Votto        4
    
    2B 45+
    
    Votto       16
    Anderson    16
    Bruce        9
    
    3B 10+
    
    Anderson    16
    Dickerson   12
    Phillips     7
    
    HR 30+
    
    Bruce       70
    Votto       38
    Francisco   36
    
    SB 50+
    
    Taveras     43
    Phillips     2
    Dickerson    1
    
    ERA+ 140+ (Starters)
    
    Volquez     12
    Harang       6
    Arroyo       3
    
    ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)
    
    Cordero     42
    Mercker     17
    Bray        16
    
    K/9 9+ (Starters)
    
    Volquez     45
    Harang      20
    Cueto       15
    
    K/9 9+ (Relievers)
    Cordero     84
    Bray        52
    Roenicke    18
    
    BB/9 1.5- (Starters)
    
    Harang       2
    Pettyjohn    1
    
    BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)
    
    Manuel      14
    Belisle     11
    Adkins       2
    
    HR/9 0.7- (Starters)
    
    Volquez     25
    Jukich      19
    Arroyo       6
    
    HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)
    
    Cordero     54
    Herrera     40
    Burton      39
    
    All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
    
    Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
    Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
    many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
    ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
    being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
    is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
    the future.
    
    Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
    This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
    the offseason.  
    
    ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
    
    Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
    is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
    the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
    
    Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
    most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
    quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    Observations:

    -Not many surprises

    -ZiPS loves me and Highlifeman's boy, Laynce Nix

    -ZiPS thinks Danny Dorn should have gotten a spring invite in the least

    -ZiPS thinks Ben Jukich should be the fifth starter

    -No love for Ramirez, Bailey, and especially surprising, Daryl Thompson

    -Lots of depth in the bullpen--especially with youngsters--which makes the Weathers and Lincoln contracts look silly
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,874

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    They like Cueto better than I do. I'll take that season from him. Heck, they like Owings better than I do too.

    The Reds will be a very solid team if those pitching numbers are within spitting distance of accurate.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 02-04-2009 at 01:38 PM.

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    Actually, I think they are predicting a bit of a sophomore slump with Cueto. That's possible, but it's also possible that he steps up and posts an ERA below 4.00. I have him somewhere around the 4.25-4.55 area. He's a future #1 IMO but he won't reach that ceiling just yet. Give him a year or two and he'll be one of the better pitchers in the league, IMO.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #4
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,874

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    oops

  6. #5
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    2 guys with an OBP above .350. How horrible with this offense be?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  7. #6
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    who is the guy with the OPS+ of 71? :
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  8. #7
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midland, MI
    Posts
    6,410

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    who is the guy with the OPS+ of 71? :
    Drew Anderson?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  9. #8
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    2 guys with an OBP above .350. How horrible with this offense be?
    all wrong, way underestimating the 2009 Reds offense.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  10. #9
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    24,874

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    If Bruce really does SLG .522, I'll say he OBs higher than .325.

  11. #10
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,782

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    37 HR for Bruce? With his batting eye? Nah.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  12. #11
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    26,507

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    2 guys with an OBP above .350. How horrible with this offense be?
    Speed man...SPEED.

  13. #12
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    ZiPS loves me and Highlifeman's boy, Laynce Nix
    Yeah they do.

    As well they should.

  14. #13
    Member Emin3mShady07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Lake Orion, MI
    Posts
    454

    Re: 2009 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS Projections

    You know you are bad when Norris Hopper is projected to out produce you.
    Baseball is not necessarily an obsessive-compulsive disorder, like washing your hands 100 times a day, but it's beginning to seem that way. We're reaching the point where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life. Take your pick. ~Thomas Boswell

    Having a life is overrated.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25