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Thread: 2009 MLB draft

  1. #46
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    I don't think teams want to be in the business of drafting and developing arms for other teams, which is what happens with top HS pitchers as often as not. In fact, I'd rather be the team that trades for them four or five years down the road after the team that drafted them get disillusioned. It would cost less and I'd have a clearer idea of what I'm buying. The draft acts as a trigger to get a kid some notice, expectations get inflated, trough of disillusionment hits, someone then takes the time to get the kid truly ready, then he reaches a productive plateau.
    First off, lots of good stuff here, M2 and stock.

    Again, in my view, the issue of discarding a quality young arm to another organization is a development issue, not a drafting issue. You're absolutely correct that it does happen that teams get impatient and cut a premium arm loose. It happens with draft picks and Latin American free agents (Pedro Martinez, Francisco Liriano, etc.). But to say that these arms always come cheaper than drafting them (let's say a 2 million dollar investment) is debatable, and to assume that your team will be able to identify that arm and then find a match to trade for that arm is wishful thinking.

    Quality starting pitching is very tough to find. For a team like the Reds, outbidding others for quality starters in free agency is pretty much out of the question. That leaves the trade market and the draft, and I happen to be of the opinion that the reward associated with drafting the top high school arm in the nation -- if you can identify him with relative ease -- is often (not always) well worth the risk. You have to exercise some patience (as, for example, the Royals have done with Greinke), sure, but the potential payoff merits that.

    Could be another volatile draft season on Redszone.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #47
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    To get away from all the theorizing -- we tend to tread the same ground every year -- I was just reading a BA chat question re: catcher Trevor Coleman from Missouri. He's rated the #40 college prospect by BA right now, and he's a switch hitter with very solid defensive skills. Why is he interesting? Because he has caught both Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow at Missouri. And he was drafted out of high school in the 38th round in 2006 by.... you got it, the Reds.

    So, wouldn't it be interesting if the Reds took Gibson or Crow #1, then followed with Coleman shortly after that? Right now BA projects him to the 3rd round, but possibly higher if he has a good year with the bat. I'd have to think having his college catcher, who's strong defender, would be beneficial to either Gibson or Crow as they transition to pro ball. The organization could use another polished catcher, too.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #48
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    What the issue is, isn't HS and college, its scouting. Guys outside of the top 15 have made things happen from the HS ranks. They just went lower. Had someone 'reached' and taken then 5-10-15-20 spots higher than they were 'supposed' to go, they turn the tables around a little bit on the high school crop.

    Waiting isn't an issue for me. If the kid is going to be good, I am willing to wait. Like Lollipopcurve said, its a developmental issue. If the Pirates had taken Cole Hamels #1 overall in 2002 would it have been a bad pick because he actually went 17th overall? At the time someone may have called it a signability pick and a reach. Now that we look at it, it would have been arguably the best pick they could have made. What if Matt Cain went #3 overall in the draft? Would it have been a bad pick and a reach at the time? Maybe. Doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a good pick now though. The key is being able to know the right guys, or being able to develop the right guys. Some teams can do that. Some teams can't.

  5. #49
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    I like the sound of that. We have the 8th pick in the 2nd round too don't we? So could our first three picks possibly be:
    8th
    41st-50th &
    60th-70th?
    umm hello??
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  6. #50
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    umm hello??
    Umm, can you look it up yourself?

















    The answer to your question is yes btw.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Give me Kentrail Davis and I will be happy. He is an absolute stud.

  8. #52
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Grande Donkey View Post
    Give me Kentrail Davis and I will be happy. He is an absolute stud.
    Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.

  9. #53
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Waiting isn't an issue for me. If the kid is going to be good, I am willing to wait.... The key is being able to know the right guys, or being able to develop the right guys. Some teams can do that. Some teams can't.
    Agree and disagree here. It also takes a GM that understands the nature of his organization now and two years from now prior to the upcoming draft. The Reds for example have a lot of young pitching in the upper minors. We haven't seen that for a decade at least. Drafting a HS pitcher now, one with electric stuff might be a good idea. Yes, it's a project, but the system put in place by Krivsky, if it is still being used, reduced arm injuries. Taking on a "project arm" in the first round, IF they feel he's the best player available can add depth to the system.

    The Reds seem to have an abundance of marketable pitching talent in the upper minors. Another route to go would be to draft that college arm with the idea he's replacing one of Bailey/Maloney/Ramirez/LeCure etc. with one or more being dealt for other area's of need (SS)

    But for a change, and I cannot believe I am typing this, The Reds don't NEED an arm at the top of the draft. They need position players, especially SS.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #54
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.
    In addition to that, Davis still needs plenty of work defensively as he's still raw in that area. If he's still available in the supplemental first round then I would have no problem if the Reds drafted him, but there's no way I'd take him with the eighth overall pick. Right now I'm hoping for one of Stephen Strasburg (no chance), Grant Green (no chance), Dustin Ackley, Alex White, Kyle Gibson, or Donovan Tate.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  11. #55
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.
    That is a valid concern. I talked to a couple of the coaches at UT during the Fall Game (That he went 3-3 w/ 2 Walks and a tripple in BTW) and they said look for Kentrail to really explode this year. Coach Raleigh told me that KD never really got settled in and that he put way to much pressure on himself trying to carry the team.

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    In addition to that, Davis still needs plenty of work defensively as he's still raw in that area. If he's still available in the supplemental first round then I would have no problem if the Reds drafted him, but there's no way I'd take him with the eighth overall pick. Right now I'm hoping for one of Stephen Strasburg (no chance), Grant Green (no chance), Dustin Ackley, Alex White, Kyle Gibson, or Donovan Tate.
    1. I don't know how good he was in the outfield in high school, where I am assuming you heard that report, but he is a very solid CFer with the athleticism to only get better.

    2. 0% chance he will be there in the supplemental round. He will be gone by 15th at the latest.

  12. #56
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Grande Donkey View Post
    That is a valid concern. I talked to a couple of the coaches at UT during the Fall Game (That he went 3-3 w/ 2 Walks and a tripple in BTW) and they said look for Kentrail to really explode this year. Coach Raleigh told me that KD never really got settled in and that he put way to much pressure on himself trying to carry the team.

    1. I don't know how good he was in the outfield in high school, where I am assuming you heard that report, but he is a very solid CFer with the athleticism to only get better.

    2. 0% chance he will be there in the supplemental round. He will be gone by 15th at the latest.
    Baseball America says Davis may have to move from center field to left field because he lacks defensive instincts and arm strength.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #57
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Baseball America says Davis may have to move from center field to left field because he lacks defensive instincts and arm strength.
    Arm strength, maybe. There is a little to be desired there but other than that he plays CF well.

  14. #58
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    I just finished up reading anther scouting report on Kyle Gibson from Baseball America. He's quickly becoming my number one guy behind Strasburg and Green. He sounds a lot like Mike Pelfrey of the Mets. His current fastball is around 89-92 with sinking action, his slider is a plus pitch and Baseball America says his changeup has a chance to be a plus pitch. He's got a smooth delivery and room to add more velocity. I'm hoping he falls to the Reds at number eight.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  15. #59
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    Re: 2009 MLB draft

    Gibson is also my numer one choice, that I think realistically we could have a chance at.
    Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto

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    Re: 2009 MLB draft



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