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Thread: Sell now or firesale later?

  1. #1
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Sell now or firesale later?

    Don't know what the trade market for players like Harang and Phillips will be this spring, but Peter Gammons' latest indicates the club might do better to make a deal now than wait until this summer.

    "It's going to be very important for small and Rust Belt market teams to get off to good starts," one baseball management person says. "If they get off to bad starts, in this economy, fans may lose interest in a hurry. It's going to be hard to keep people paying in Detroit or Pittsburgh or Cincinnati if they're in a building mode, at least this season."

    Hence, some of the richer teams have tucked cash away with the assumption that some franchises have to move contracts.

    "The problem will be that the owners and general managers of distressed teams are going to have to realize that they're not going to get valued prospects for what, for them, are bad contracts," one GM says. "They may be put in very difficult positions of having to explain to their fans that they simply have to get out from under some contracts to afford to build from scouting and development."

    The Tigers, for instance, are on the hook for nearly $140 million to Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson. The Reds are on the hook for $100 million on Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips.
    One quick observation from the Reds and Tigers lists, the Reds have a much better set of players and contracts to move.
    Last edited by M2; 02-08-2009 at 04:25 PM.
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  3. #2
    Member Red Heeler's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Don't know what the trade market for players like Harang and Phillips will be this spring, but Peter Gammons' latest indicates the club might do better to make a deal now than wait until this summer.
    If the Reds cannot afford the contracts of the 4 players mentioned in the quote, then they might as well turn out the lights and lock the doors. One could argue that Cordero and Arroyo are overpaid, but not grossly so. All 4 are likely to come close to earning their money.

  4. #3
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Wait a sec. I thought Dunn was the only player we couldn't afford to have on the team. Now it's 4 different guys?

    Every day this team moves closer to needing to fold up tent and go the way of the Washington Senators.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    I thought the losing stopped lasy year?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    It's Peter Gammons. He doesn't like the Reds, so we have to sell. Yawn.
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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Obviously, any of these numbers could be higher/lower by the time 2011 rolls around, and who knows how many free agent acquisitions the Reds will have between now and then, but the Reds will probably be paying over $80mm to keep the team together.

    Code:
    2011 Reds payroll
    Ryan Hanigan	 0.400
    Joey Votto	~5.000
    Brandon Phillips11.000
    EdwinEncarnacion~6.000
    Jeff Keppinger	~2.000
    Todd Frazier	 0.400
    Drew Stubbs	 0.400
    Jay Bruce	 0.400
    Craig Tatum	 0.400
    Adam Rosales	 0.400
    Paul Janish	 0.400
    Chris Heisey	 0.400
    Danny Dorn	 0.400
    Edinson Volquez	~7.000
    Aaron Harang	13.000
    Johnny Cueto	~5.000
    Bronson Arroyo	11.000
    Homer Bailey	 0.400
    FranciscoCordero12.000
    Jared Burton	~3.000
    Bill Bray	~2.000
    Sean Watson	 0.400
    Danny Herrera	 0.400
    Josh Roenicke	 0.400
    Daryl Thompson	 0.400
    		82.600
    I don't see the Reds affording that high of a payroll in 2011, so that tells me that at least one or two of the big-contract guys will be on their way out before then.

  8. #7
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    It's Peter Gammons. He doesn't like the Reds, so we have to sell. Yawn.
    Funny... I always had the impression that he kind of liked the Reds. In any case, I think he makes some good points.

    FWIW, I think Harang is worth holding onto at the price the Reds have him, especially given he had an off year in '08. Now is not the time to sell with him. I also think Arroyo's contract is pretty reasonable given how difficult it is to find quality ML starting pitching. Obviously, if someone bowls you over with an offer for one of these guys, you consider it... but I wouldn't do it (especially Harang) for anything short of a Bedardesque return of prospects.

    The other two contracts, I think, are prime sell-now candidates.

    Phillips is a great defender, but I just don't see him adding the plate discipline it will take to make him into a true elite option at his position. Given that, I think you try now to shop him to a team who falls in love with his power-speed combo. It's important that a trade partner think BP's best years are still ahead of him.

    Cordero is not a bad closer, but at that price he's a luxury the Reds cannot afford in their current budget. If the team isn't in serious contention come July, I say they should deal him to a contender who needs a closer. If they can get good prospects, all the better, but I'd almost be happy to find a team willing to foot the bill.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).
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  10. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I thought the losing stopped lasy year?
    It did. The Reds haven't lost in over 4 months and counting!
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #10
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).
    If so, that contract is going to be a freaking Miltonesque albatross in a couple of years.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  12. #11
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    If so, that contract is going to be a freaking Miltonesque albatross in a couple of years.
    At least Cordero is a *good* player...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #12
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    At least Cordero is a *good* player...
    I think I'd call him good... ish.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).
    He has a no-trade clause this year and a limited no-trade clause after that.

  15. #14
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Funny... I always had the impression that he kind of liked the Reds.
    He used to, when Jimmy B. was GM. Jimmy used to feed him all the inside scoop, on how the Reds were on the verge of acquiring all kinds of players.
    Jimmy got booted, Peter started trashing the Reds.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Sell now or firesale later?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).
    Maybe, sometimes it just takes a little extra bonus or something.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons


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