Sell now or firesale later?

[M2]

Don't know what the trade market for players like Harang and Phillips will be this spring, but Peter Gammons' latest indicates the club might do better to make a deal now than wait until this summer.

"It's going to be very important for small and Rust Belt market teams to get off to good starts," one baseball management person says. "If they get off to bad starts, in this economy, fans may lose interest in a hurry. It's going to be hard to keep people paying in Detroit or Pittsburgh or Cincinnati if they're in a building mode, at least this season."

Hence, some of the richer teams have tucked cash away with the assumption that some franchises have to move contracts.

"The problem will be that the owners and general managers of distressed teams are going to have to realize that they're not going to get valued prospects for what, for them, are bad contracts," one GM says. "They may be put in very difficult positions of having to explain to their fans that they simply have to get out from under some contracts to afford to build from scouting and development."

The Tigers, for instance, are on the hook for nearly $140 million to Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson. The Reds are on the hook for $100 million on Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips.

One quick observation from the Reds and Tigers lists, the Reds have a much better set of players and contracts to move.

[Red Heeler]

Don't know what the trade market for players like Harang and Phillips will be this spring, but Peter Gammons' latest indicates the club might do better to make a deal now than wait until this summer.

If the Reds cannot afford the contracts of the 4 players mentioned in the quote, then they might as well turn out the lights and lock the doors. One could argue that Cordero and Arroyo are overpaid, but not grossly so. All 4 are likely to come close to earning their money.

[Ltlabner]

Wait a sec. I thought Dunn was the only player we couldn't afford to have on the team. Now it's 4 different guys?

Every day this team moves closer to needing to fold up tent and go the way of the Washington Senators.

[Chip R]

I thought the losing stopped lasy year?

[jojo]

I thought the losing stopped lasy year?

It did. The Reds haven't lost in over 4 months and counting!

[redsmetz]

It's Peter Gammons. He doesn't like the Reds, so we have to sell. Yawn.

[RedEye]

It's Peter Gammons. He doesn't like the Reds, so we have to sell. Yawn.

Funny... I always had the impression that he kind of liked the Reds. In any case, I think he makes some good points.

FWIW, I think Harang is worth holding onto at the price the Reds have him, especially given he had an off year in '08. Now is not the time to sell with him. I also think Arroyo's contract is pretty reasonable given how difficult it is to find quality ML starting pitching. Obviously, if someone bowls you over with an offer for one of these guys, you consider it... but I wouldn't do it (especially Harang) for anything short of a Bedardesque return of prospects.

The other two contracts, I think, are prime sell-now candidates.

Phillips is a great defender, but I just don't see him adding the plate discipline it will take to make him into a true elite option at his position. Given that, I think you try now to shop him to a team who falls in love with his power-speed combo. It's important that a trade partner think BP's best years are still ahead of him.

Cordero is not a bad closer, but at that price he's a luxury the Reds cannot afford in their current budget. If the team isn't in serious contention come July, I say they should deal him to a contender who needs a closer. If they can get good prospects, all the better, but I'd almost be happy to find a team willing to foot the bill.

[VR]

Funny... I always had the impression that he kind of liked the Reds.

He used to, when Jimmy B. was GM. Jimmy used to feed him all the inside scoop, on how the Reds were on the verge of acquiring all kinds of players.
Jimmy got booted, Peter started trashing the Reds.

[M2]

He used to, when Jimmy B. was GM. Jimmy used to feed him all the inside scoop, on how the Reds were on the verge of acquiring all kinds of players.
Jimmy got booted, Peter started trashing the Reds.

I'd say he mostly ignores the Reds. As for "trashing" them, the club has been awful. Unbiased coverage of the Reds in recent years has demanded an admission of that fact.

[MartyFan]

Funny... I always had the impression that he kind of liked the Reds. In any case, I think he makes some good points.

FWIW, I think Harang is worth holding onto at the price the Reds have him, especially given he had an off year in '08. Now is not the time to sell with him. I also think Arroyo's contract is pretty reasonable given how difficult it is to find quality ML starting pitching. Obviously, if someone bowls you over with an offer for one of these guys, you consider it... but I wouldn't do it (especially Harang) for anything short of a Bedardesque return of prospects.

The other two contracts, I think, are prime sell-now candidates.

Phillips is a great defender, but I just don't see him adding the plate discipline it will take to make him into a true elite option at his position. Given that, I think you try now to shop him to a team who falls in love with his power-speed combo. It's important that a trade partner think BP's best years are still ahead of him.

Cordero is not a bad closer, but at that price he's a luxury the Reds cannot afford in their current budget. If the team isn't in serious contention come July, I say they should deal him to a contender who needs a closer. If they can get good prospects, all the better, but I'd almost be happy to find a team willing to foot the bill.

I love BP...advocated the Reds keeping him over Dunn and Junior (and still do) but if there is a decent return offered for him...bring it on.

[kaldaniels]

My only comment I'd like to add on the Cordero vs. Milton discussion. I don't think for one moment Eric Milton was a major league quality pitcher in a Reds uniform. On the other hand, Cordero didn't compare as well as I'd hoped, but was at least major league quality, and even though his has a large contract...lets not Miltonize him just yet.

[camisadelgolf]

Obviously, any of these numbers could be higher/lower by the time 2011 rolls around, and who knows how many free agent acquisitions the Reds will have between now and then, but the Reds will probably be paying over $80mm to keep the team together.

2011 Reds payroll
Ryan Hanigan	 0.400
Joey Votto	~5.000
Brandon Phillips11.000
EdwinEncarnacion~6.000
Jeff Keppinger	~2.000
Todd Frazier	 0.400
Drew Stubbs	 0.400
Jay Bruce	 0.400
Craig Tatum	 0.400
Adam Rosales	 0.400
Paul Janish	 0.400
Chris Heisey	 0.400
Danny Dorn	 0.400
Edinson Volquez	~7.000
Aaron Harang	13.000
Johnny Cueto	~5.000
Bronson Arroyo	11.000
Homer Bailey	 0.400
FranciscoCordero12.000
Jared Burton	~3.000
Bill Bray	~2.000
Sean Watson	 0.400
Danny Herrera	 0.400
Josh Roenicke	 0.400
Daryl Thompson	 0.400
		82.600

I don't see the Reds affording that high of a payroll in 2011, so that tells me that at least one or two of the big-contract guys will be on their way out before then.

[WMR]

Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).

[RedEye]

Doesn't Cordero have a no-trade clause? I could see him trying to leverage that into another year on his deal (i.e. forcing the Reds to hold onto him).

If so, that contract is going to be a freaking Miltonesque albatross in a couple of years.

[*BaseClogger*]

If so, that contract is going to be a freaking Miltonesque albatross in a couple of years.

At least Cordero is a *good* player...