Sell now or firesale later?

[M2]

I think it's a total fallacy to suggest it has to be one or the other. Baseball has the best system in professional sports for doing both. Good organizations constantly are in rebuilding mode -- acquiring young talent, replenishing the farm system, developing those young players. At the same time, I'm of the belief that they always should be trying to win. Every season. You can't pick and choose when the time is right. Baseball is a game, more than any other, where you can catch lightning in a bottle. You have to be ready to take advantage of that.

How many years have you been telling yourself that the Reds don't have to commit to anything and everything will be all right?

You habitually claim to understand the Reds' thinking, but it always leads to the same sorry end. Maybe they need to start doing things you don't understand.

[bucksfan2]

Exactly my point. That's not rebuilding, it's roster filling.

It is roster filling but it isn't affecting anything in the future. Just two years ago many were wanting the Reds to trade away Votto and Cueto for Berdard. That would have been an awful move. In the same off season the same two names kept surfacing for Joe "Cy Young" Blanton. I will take roster filling at some positions if it means keeping your young nucleolus together.

Certainly, not some young guy who'll be around for a while. I've got no problem with Hernandez if the team is making an honest run at 2009, but he's the exact wrong direction for a rebuilding team.

I don't think it matters if the Reds are think they are legit in 09 or not. They needed a catcher. You can't go into a 162 game season with one option at the C position. Hernandez may not be the ideal catcher for the Reds this season but a C was a must in the off season. It was basically a salary swap for Freel anyway.

Which young players did they trade for? You seem to think the answer lies solely in the Reds' minors. Reds fans have been making that mistake for a decade. I'll guarantee you it doesn't. There is no SS down there. There is no catcher. There may be no CF (at least for the next half decade). And I don't see enough starting pitching to cover for Harang and Arroyo when they're gone (or if someone gets a serious injury).

Every farm system has its strengths and weaknesses. Having a legit SS and C prospects are rare to have one let alone both. As for CF a guy by the name of Drew Stubbs looks to be in line to make his debut in Cincy this year. As for the starting pitching I see quite a bit of depth for the Reds. Owings, Bailey, and Ramirez will all compete for the 5th slot. Maloney and Thompson look they could be an option in case someone goes down. The low majors look to be pretty bare but that could all be changed by one good draft.

I get the feeling that many think that since no big moves have been made Jocketty isn't doing anything. Young, cheap talent is very expensive to trade for. If I asked you the top 3 valuable positions in the minors I would guess SP, C, and SS are three that come to the mind first. Teams are holding onto their prospects and demanding a kings ransom for the prospects as well as the comp picks that may come along with them.

Right now who are the Reds biggest trading chips? I would say Volquez, Cueto, Bruce, and Votto all command the most weight on the trade market. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and Phillips are the highest paid Reds yet their trade value has diminished due in large part to the economy. All 4 were signed at contracts that fit the market at the time. Cordero you could argue that the Reds spent a little too much but they needed a solution at closer and there didn't look to be one in the foreseeable future. Would now be the right time to trade any of those 4? Would you want to take pennies on the dollar because some feel they are over paid? With many good FA's on the market getting very few and discounted contract offers the likelihood of a winning trade for Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, or Phillips is very slim.

[M2]

It is roster filling but it isn't affecting anything in the future.

I thought the point of rebuilding was to affect the future.

[RedsBaron]

They needed a catcher.

"You have to have a catcher or you will have all passed balls"-Casey Stengel

[westofyou]

The Reds have been playing "The lightening in a bottle" approach for over a decade now, it's a crappy approach with a few problems.

A. It hasn't worked

B. It's done nothing to increase the fan base

C. It produces boring teams most of the time.

It's obvious that they think it's a good approach and it's obvious that they're wrong.

[dougdirt]

The Reds have been playing "The lightening in a bottle" approach for over a decade now, it's a crappy approach with a few problems.

A. It hasn't worked

B. It's done nothing to increase the fan base

C. It produces boring teams most of the time.

It's obvious that they think it's a good approach and it's obvious that they're wrong.

Which is fine if they were taking that approach, but I don't see them taking that approach anymore. I see it more as a 'lets build from within. draft, sign and develop guys. Acquire guys in trade, improve the club top to bottom' approach. Now whether they can execute that plan is an entirely different story, but I do think it is the approach that they are taking. They feel they have a lot of talent in the minor leagues right now and they have seen some of it come to fruition of late and are planning on more of it coming along quite soon.

[M2]

The Reds have been playing "The lightening in a bottle" approach for over a decade now, it's a crappy approach with a few problems.

A. It hasn't worked

B. It's done nothing to increase the fan base

C. It produces boring teams most of the time.

It's obvious that they think it's a good approach and it's obvious that they're wrong.

Word.

I'll add two more.

D. It's inherent flaws tend to be glaring.

E. The constant focus on maybe getting lucky today, and failure to do so, has prevented the club from paying sufficient attention to building a better tomorrow.

[REDREAD]

They've added Hernandez, Rhodes, Taveras, Gomes, Nix, Jones and Ward. That's four guys in their 30s and three guys in their late 20s.

I guess when I made that statement, I didn't count Jones and Ward, since they were just minor league invitations. I was just thinking about the guys they actually guaranteed money too.

Hernandez was a Freel salary dump. I think the board pretty much unanimously approved that move.

Likewise, I think at least 90% of the board was behind Rhodes, as it's just tough to get a decent LH reliever out of the pen. Certainly makes more sense than trading young talent for a stopgap LOOGY.

If they were actually rebuilding they expend some (veteran) trade resources and collect some kids who could make a difference in the coming years.

Arroyo is overpriced relative to the FA talent out there. Harang had a disasterous year last year and has questions about his health. It's the wrong time to trade those guys. Cordero is overpriced and has a no trade clause. He's unmovable, because no one is going to kick in the money to waive the no trade clause (including the Reds).

Phillips could be tradable. That's about the only guy I see that could be moved for decent young talent now.

Why trade for Arroyo or Harang right now (if you are the Reds' trade partner), unless you could get them for a Tim Hummel? Why not sign one of the decent FA pitchers still out there for a shorter term and probably less $$?

Pennies on the dollar strikes me as blanket immunization from ever actually rebuilding. You're almost never going to land an obvious winning haul for a veteran player

That is true, but there's a difference between picking up a Wily Mo Pena vs a Tim Hummel. If the Reds aren't going to get projectable ML talent in return, why even bother trading the vet?

Also, trading a potential FA (like Dunn or Guillen) in a lost year is a different scenerio than trading a productive guy like Phillips/Harang/Arroyo that might help you years down the road.

I mean, the reason why Gullen-Harang worked out so well was that Harang is hopefully going to give us years of good pitching. If we flip Harang for lottery tickets, what is the point in acquiring guys like Harang?

I'm not opposed to trading anyone on this team if it leads to a brighter future, but it looks like we'd have a hard time getting anyone to take our vets, much less give up projectable talent for them. Based on what Wigginton signed for, I'm not even sure that EdE would have much trade value.

This winter has seen very few trades. Basically, the "beanie baby" economy has collapsed and if you paid 12 million for that nice shiny closer, it's only worth 5 million now.. Whether it's collusion or not doesn't really matter, the reality is that it's a tough market for swapping vets for good prospects now.

I'm not making excuses for Walt. I liked most of his moves this winter in isolation. However, overall, Walt gets a poor grade for this offseason because the team as a whole really isn't better than opening day 2008.. A lot of that is due to Dunn and Jr leaving, but Walt knew he needed to replace that offense.

It's always pennies (nickels) on the dollar in those trades. It comes down to whether you can spot the coins that are collector's items.

That's my point though. I doubt there's any silver dimes in the pile of coins Walt is being offered. Actually, given that Hudson is still on the market, I doubt even Phillips is movable now. None of our vets are probably movable, unless it's a payroll neutral deal.

Veteran talent is at a 21st century low right now and the Reds aren't buying. The Reds either don't have or aren't spending the resources to put this roster over the top. Either this crew is capable being world beaters or it's not. Help isn't coming.

That's a valid criticism. I'd love for the Reds to grab Abreu or someone like that right now who could actually help them and stir a little interest in this fanbase, which no one can blame for being apathetic. Bob has a chance to put his money where his mouth is, and isn't doing it.

[nate]

The Reds have been playing "The lightening in a bottle" approach for over a decade now, it's a crappy approach with a few problems.

A. It hasn't worked

B. It's done nothing to increase the fan base

C. It produces boring teams most of the time.

It's obvious that they think it's a good approach and it's obvious that they're wrong.

If they're gonna try that, they might want to use a bigger jar and settle for fireflies.

[Roy Tucker]

It will be a firesale later. The Reds are in full delusional state standing firmly astride the fence thinking they juuuust might contend.

And Rule #1 of project managment is that things will always go worse than what you think. They never go better and very seldomly go the way you think. And actually, they usually go much worse.

[M2]

Hernandez was a Freel salary dump. I think the board pretty much unanimously approved that move.

Likewise, I think at least 90% of the board was behind Rhodes, as it's just tough to get a decent LH reliever out of the pen. Certainly makes more sense than trading young talent for a stopgap LOOGY.

Those moves made sense in terms of going for it, which the Reds said they were doing. If you're rebuilding you'd want to stay far away from those two.

That's my point though. I doubt there's any silver dimes in the pile of coins Walt is being offered. Actually, given that Hudson is still on the market, I doubt even Phillips is movable now. None of our vets are probably movable, unless it's a payroll neutral deal.

There are always underappreciated kids out there who can be had. If you're rebuilding, it's the GM's job to find them.

[remdog]

A very erudite post redread. I agree with most everything you said including the way the order of the off season played into it.

Where's that button that I click to give you rep points? I can never find it when I need it.

Rem

[gm]

There are always underappreciated kids out there who can be had. If you're rebuilding, it's the GM's job to find them.

Memo to Walt: Find the Reds a Ludwig. Please and thank you.

[wally post]

Why shouldn't we sell? We are not competing now. Are fans coming to the park for these four guys? Just asking... I don't know.

[Ron Madden]

"If it's broke don't fix it"!

Or somthin' like that.