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Thread: PECOTA projections

  1. #1
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    PECOTA projections

    Just saw, through a link on mlbtraderumors, that they have the Reds going 79-83. I think they had the team batting around .263, with a .329 OBP.

    Can't say that I am shocked.

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Compared to a team .247 BA and .321 OBP in 2008, I'd say those numbers are realistic. Here's a promising stat--Houston batted .263 as a team last year and they found a way to win 86 games, and their pitching staff past Oswalt was questionable.

    86 wins could happen. I'll be happy with a 79-83 record though. Did I just say that?

    http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Quote Originally Posted by stripedwarrior View Post
    Just saw, through a link on mlbtraderumors, that they have the Reds going 79-83. I think they had the team batting around .263, with a .329 OBP.

    Can't say that I am shocked.

    79 wins? That's more than what most of RedZoners are predicting so shouldn't we be happy?

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    ^nope, not at all

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    The RA projection looks a little high to me. I'm not one to argue with PECOTA, but I would think that number will look lower once things are said and done. Probably just worth one or two wins in the long run, but Bob says we'll be at .500, so there you go.

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    The team is loaded with players on the rise, and their combined projections should be difficult to prognosticate.

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    I love Reds fans. For the last 15 years, we have complained that "all we need is some pitching. If only we had some pitching, we would be dangerous." Well, guess what. We have some pitching. So, now what do I hear. "All we need is some offense. If only we had some offense, we would be dangerous." Good stuff.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

  9. #8
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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    I love Reds fans. For the last 15 years, we have complained that "all we need is some pitching. If only we had some pitching, we would be dangerous." Well, guess what. We have some pitching. So, now what do I hear. "All we need is some offense. If only we had some offense, we would be dangerous." Good stuff.
    The problem is that you need to be at least slightly above average at both or at least be exceptional in 1 area while being average in the other.Defense is also another factor.The Reds seem to be below average every year in at least 2 out of the 3.While the needs and wants change every year the loosing continues because of a overall lack of balance.

    You can't blame the fans or redszoners for wanting the team to improve on what they are unable to do well.

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    Member improbus's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfever09 View Post
    The problem is that you need to be at least slightly above average at both or at least be exceptional in 1 area while being average in the other.Defense is also another factor.The Reds seem to be below average every year in at least 2 out of the 3.While the needs and wants change every year the loosing continues because of a overall lack of balance.

    You can't blame the fans or redszoners for wanting the team to improve on what they are unable to do well.
    The difference is that pitching can cover up most warts in a way that offense really can't. If we get a slightly improved Cueto, the old Harang, and the same Volquez, we will be very dangerous. Teams will not want to run into that trio.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Cueto is obviously loaded with ability and potential, but he has to improve A LOT from last year to this year to have the kind of impact you're suggesting here. He had a 4.81 ERA last season and 1.41 WHIP. The NL avg. ERA last season was 4.29. The Reds' team average was 4.55 (23rd out of 30 teams). Cincy will have better pitching this year, but to think that it will be so outstanding as to make up for offensive and defensive shortcomings is expecting a lot more than I do.


    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    The difference is that pitching can cover up most warts in a way that offense really can't. If we get a slightly improved Cueto, the old Harang, and the same Volquez, we will be very dangerous. Teams will not want to run into that trio.

  12. #11
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA projections

    It's been a few days since I saw their projections but iirc I think I was most surprised by how much they expected us to score. I'd love for that projection to be correct.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    I love Reds fans. For the last 15 years, we have complained that "all we need is some pitching. If only we had some pitching, we would be dangerous." Well, guess what. We have some pitching. So, now what do I hear. "All we need is some offense. If only we had some offense, we would be dangerous." Good stuff.
    that's a point I've subtly been trying to make the last few months. Either most fans don't know anything or they'd rather have a lineup full of Griffeys and Dunns but lose 100 games. I've never understood it.

  14. #13
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    Re: PECOTA projections

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    Cueto is obviously loaded with ability and potential, but he has to improve A LOT from last year to this year to have the kind of impact you're suggesting here. He had a 4.81 ERA last season and 1.41 WHIP. The NL avg. ERA last season was 4.29. The Reds' team average was 4.55 (23rd out of 30 teams). Cincy will have better pitching this year, but to think that it will be so outstanding as to make up for offensive and defensive shortcomings is expecting a lot more than I do.
    GABP will always inflate the teams ERA, so really we need to worry about simply having a better ERA than our opponents at home. That is the key. I do think that Cueto will improve to at least league average. If you come into Cincinnati and have to face Volquez, Harang, Cueto, you're potentially looking at three straight double digit K guys. That is fairly intimidating. There a lot of ifs, but they are better ifs than Jimmy Anderson/Jimmy Haynes ifs. I feel like the Reds are moving into a good place.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero


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