Reds still in on Abreu? - NO - Abreu signs with the LA Angels

[RedEye]

I'm not saying I agree with it, but I think it's pretty obvious that the Reds don't think Dickerson is the answer for the CF slot....before OR after the Taveras signing. I was never in favor of the Weathers signing, I wanted to cut the cord. But once we offered arbitration we were pretty much stuck with it so that money was off the table at that point.

Stubbs hasn't proved anything yet so counting on him is foolhardy I'd think (not directed at you, just in general). Same goes for many of the minor league candidates. I think there are several that'll be stars, but I don't see many that are READY yet (apart from Roenicke and several starters).

So, turn back the time to the beginning of the off-season and say that we had 15-16 million available for this season. We trade for Hernandez and basically swap salary there, so we're still at 15-16 million. We (the Reds) know that we're going to offer arbitration to both Weathers and Edwin. If we split the differences, you're looking at around 3 million for each this season. We're down to about 9-10 million left in the budget at the beginning of December. We decide to sign Lincoln at 2 million leaving us at 7-8 million. We're still wanting to re-sign Hairston as a backup for AGon (who's still an unknown at that point) and because we currently have 1.5 outfielders (.5 is Dickerson...durability is still a question mark as is the Reds being unsure of him working out as the CF'er). So set aside another 2 million for Hairston. 5-6 million left for a LF'er. Back in December...anybody think Abreu signs with Cincy for that amount? When he was still looking for a decent multi-year deal? So back when we had 10-15 million available, we would've NOT had Edwin's money available, Hairston, Lincoln, Weathers resigned, and others. We would've filled the LF vacancy, but the holes as SS, CF, 3B (possibly), Loogy, and the bench would've been much, MUCH harder to fill.

I think if the Reds are unsure about Dickerson, it is not because of his status as a CF. They know he can play D, they just don't know if he'll stay healthy. Hence, they went out and got... CP Part Deux.

[Ltlabner]

I'm not understanding how signing Abreu instead of Taveras and Weathers cripples the Reds at C, CF, SS, Loogy and the bench. The Freel for Hernandez trade could have still happened. Dickerson is still here to play CF. Gonzalez has been counted to play SS all winter so that wouldn't have changed. All the bench pieces (Jones, Gomes, Ward) have been signed for peanuts so I don't see that one either.

Stop making sense.

The reality is they had a jones for Willy T for some reason. And the Hernandez deal came along quickly. And Rhodes was in there also. So there's three moves they rushed out to make when they really didn't have to. At the time I thought the Hernandez move was good given the lack of available catching but obviously the Willy move was a total waste of time and money.

What it boils down to is they got impulsive, totally misread the market, and when it really turned (to their favor) they blinked and pulled back. Instead of taking advantage of the price sale they decided to "play it safe" on the remaining open position (unless you include short stop). That's when we started hearing about the pressing need for bench and fringe players.

But the reality is what you pointed out. Having Abreau doesn't prevent any of the other moves. All the other moves prevents having Abreau.

[I(heart)Freel]

To redirect this conversation slightly...

An OC/Angels blog lists fallout from the Abreu signing, ie what pieces the Angels might now be interested in trading.

http://fromthedugout.freedomblogging...de-bait/13648/


Couple'a shortstops on that list: Aybar and Wood.

Any interest? Help solve our young SS problem?

[OnBaseMachine]

To rediect this conversation slightly...

An OC/Angels blog lists fallout from the Abreu signing, ie what pieces the Angels might now be interested in trading.

http://fromthedugout.freedomblogging...de-bait/13648/


Couple'a shortstops on that list: Aybar and Wood.

Any interest? Help solve our young SS problem?

Go get Aybar Walt! He's not much of a hitter yet but kid can play some defense. Get him Walt. At least do something productive this offseason.

[BRM]

Go get Aybar Walt! He's not much of a hitter yet but kid can play some defense. Get him Walt. At least do something productive this offseason.

Is Aybar a fringe player?

[buckeyenut]

I would love to pick up Aybar, Wood or Figgins.

[Blitz Dorsey]

This sucks. We pay whatever we're paying for Taveras and other mediocre players on our roster when we could've had Abreu for $6 million (assuming it would have taken a little more for him to come to Cincinnati over the LA Angels). Even in a weak market, we manage to spend our money poorly.

[redsmetz]

There are all sorts of factors playing into this viz the Reds earlier signings and the current signings of Abreu and Dunn. I think the budget was a higher number early in the off season, as many have already noted. I think that higher number was more or less still in play when they signed Taveras.

But I think Adam Dunn's deal with Washington is a better marker of what the Reds would have had to pony up to have gotten an Abreu. Abreu's $5M plus incentives would have had to have been closer to the $10M Dunn signed for. An extra million or two wouldn't have gotten it done, I think. There's a marked difference in signing with a club that clearly will be a contender versus coming to clubs like us who will have to have a lot of things go right to even have a sniff at the playoffs. I just think there's no getting around that.

As folks have also noted, all of our new contracts are structured for the near term. Taveras' two years at a reasonably low salary can be absorbed if the budget changes or a Drew Stubbs steps up and pushes the question. Weathers is on just a two year deal, as is Rhodes (again a sign of the steps the Reds have had to take to induce players to sign here), but at numbers that can be moved.

But there's little chance that Abreu would have come here for anything close to what he signed with the Angels.

[edabbs44]

This sucks. We pay whatever we're paying for Taveras and other mediocre players on our roster when we could've had Abreu for $6 million (assuming it would have taken a little more for him to come to Cincinnati over the LA Angels). Even in a weak market, we manage to spend our money poorly.

I don't think that $1MM would have gotten it done.

[Screwball]

I don't think that $1MM would have gotten it done.

I think the point was the Reds could've gotten it done had they allocated their money wisely. Spending $2M of it on Taveras hardly qualifies as such.

[edabbs44]

I think the point was the Reds could've gotten it done had they allocated their money wisely. Spending $2M of it on Taveras hardly qualifies as such.

While I agree to an extent, I think Abreu's decision wasn't all about money. The Reds may have had to double what LA gave him, and/or guarantee more years.

You can't assume that the Reds would have had him at $6MM.

[Will M]

IMO Walt's biggest mistake this offseason was offering arbitration to Weathers. $4M for a middle reliever that could have gone to upgrade elsewhere. The pen already had Cordero, Burton Bray, Rhodes, Lincoln, Masset, Ramirez(or Owings), Herrara, & Roenicke.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I think if the Reds are unsure about Dickerson, it is not because of his status as a CF. They know he can play D, they just don't know if he'll stay healthy. Hence, they went out and got... CP Part Deux.

How often did he get a shot to show his stuff in Center last year? He was in CF down in Louisville most of the time, but once he came up...it was left or nothing. All offseason, Dickerson's being mentioned...but only for left. I've not seen ONE Reds FO guy mention Chris for the CF slot. I tend to read quite a bit into that. And that's both before AND after the Taveras acqusition.

[_Sir_Charles_]

IMO Walt's biggest mistake this offseason was offering arbitration to Weathers. $4M for a middle reliever that could have gone to upgrade elsewhere. The pen already had Cordero, Burton Bray, Rhodes, Lincoln, Masset, Ramirez(or Owings), Herrara, & Roenicke.

Agreed. But then again, I'm not really sure we should've resigned Lincoln either. But with both those guys and the Rhodes addition...there are a LOT of quality guys getting shoved down to Louisville this year. All of the non-winning #5 guys (Ramirez/Owings/Thompson/Bailey/Maloney), Herrera, Roenicke (I'm pretty sure Masset will get the nod over him), Pelland, Fischer, Lecure, Manuel and numerous others. I'd much rather see what the young guys have instead of running Weathers & Lincoln out there again. To be fair...Lincoln doesn't bother me half as much as Weathers does...but I'd still prefer Roenicke/Herrera over either.

[Sea Ray]

The reality is they had a jones for Willy T for some reason. And the Hernandez deal came along quickly. And Rhodes was in there also. So there's three moves they rushed out to make when they really didn't have to.

Willy T is both a CF and a leadoff hitter. Who did you have in mind to play CF and leadoff if Willy wasn't here?

Rhodes is our LOOGY. If he's not signed who do you have in mind for a LOOGY?

Hernandez is not costing us much money since we were able to dump Freel's contract. If not Hernandez who takes his place as a catcher?

Seems to me that those three players fill holes that no one else on the 40 man could fill. All those moves make sense to me.