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Thread: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Yonder Alonso #35
    Todd Frazier #86
    Drew Stubbs #96

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8506

    I'll give my complaints in a minute.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    My two complaints:

    Josh Vitters is #34, yet no Neftali Soto.

    Adys Portillo is #100. Where are Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez then? Those two were considered the two best International talents behind Michel Inoa, so how does the Portillo crack the top 100 and Duran/Yorman don't?
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    My complaints

    Michael Stanton at #14. He struck out 28.3% of the time he stepped to the plate in 2008 in a league where not every pitcher can hit 90 MPH, hardly anyone has any type of consistent breaking ball, hardly anyone can hit their spots and some guys don't even flash average offspeed pitches. Thats just way too high for an 18 year old with 1 baseball skill, even if that skill is incredible power.

    Buster Posey at #9. I just don't see him being able to hit for much power. Even as a catcher, I still want to see 15 HR's for an every day starter and I don't think Posey can get to that point.

    Lars Anderson at #17. I don't buy the power he has shown and upon reaching AA his K rate went up from 18% to 26%. Toss in the fact that he is a first baseman and I just can't see him being that high yet.

    Brett Anderson at #24. A lefty who can throw up to 95 MPH with good mechanics, a good frame, great numbers, great control, great groundball rates and he is only at #24? Pft.

    Derek Holland at #40. Insanely good numbers this year. Fastball that sits in the mid 90's and gets up to 98 MPH, great control, great numbers and he is a lefty.

    Ben Revere at #36. Dude is a straight up slap hitter who has the power of Willy Taveras (granted the rest of his game is different - better strikezone judgement, better contact rates). Even in CF a guy who projects to hit 2-3 HR a year isn't a top 50 prospect.

    Those are my bigger issues. Overall its a very good list though, just a few issues in my mind.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    My two complaints:

    Josh Vitters is #34, yet no Neftali Soto.

    Adys Portillo is #100. Where are Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez then? Those two were considered the two best International talents behind Michel Inoa, so how does the Portillo crack the top 100 and Duran/Yorman don't?
    Even better is how does Portillo beat out Soto for a spot? Not to worry he'll be in there next year, they cannot ignore him much longer.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Speaking of Frazier, with camp opening in a few days for position players, we are getting close to the moment of truth on what they are going to do to get all the prospects in the lineup even though many play the same positions. My prediction, though I strongly disagree with doing this, is that unless there is an injury somewhere, Frazier will be the shortstop at Carolina. They seem to be fine with keeping Frazier at shortstop even though they know that he can't play there in the big leagues.

    I don't like the idea of putting one of your top five prospects in the organization at a position that you know he won't play, just out of convenience. I would rather set your roster from the top down. Pick your best prospect and put him where he needs to play. Then take your second best prospect and plug him in. Then go to number three and so on. If the Reds agreed with that approach, there is no way Frazier would be at shortstop.

    I would predict that Valaika goes to Louisville, Alonso plays first at Carolina with Francisco at third on the same team.

    The Sarasota infield is probably Parker, Kahaulelio, Cozart, and Soto. Parker could go to Carolina or Soto could go back to Dayton, and if either happens, then Louwsma would take the spot at first or third.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Brett Anderson at #24. A lefty who can throw up to 95 MPH with good mechanics, a good frame, great numbers, great control, great groundball rates and he is only at #24? Pft.
    I'm still sick that they passed over him for Watson.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    The footwork is different at each position- the arm angle from which you throw is different at each position -heck, the crow hop is different at each position. Why set up Frazier to play a position he won't play in the bigs? Didn't we learn anything watching Eddy E struggle with footwork and arm angle for the last 3 years?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Doug, I'm a huge Ben Revere fan. I've seen him play a few times, and he did nothing but impress. After a year more in CF, he may become one of the best, if not the best CF'er in the game (defensively). Sure the power isn't there, but his ability to make consistant contact and amazing speed is going to make him a great threat.

    I'm not saying you are wrong about his rank, because I haven't really compared him to the others around him, just saying I am a big fan.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Doug, I'm a huge Ben Revere fan. I've seen him play a few times, and he did nothing but impress. After a year more in CF, he may become one of the best, if not the best CF'er in the game (defensively). Sure the power isn't there, but his ability to make consistant contact and amazing speed is going to make him a great threat.

    I'm not saying you are wrong about his rank, because I haven't really compared him to the others around him, just saying I am a big fan.
    Oh I know exactly where you are coming from. I was probably a little harsh there. I think he is probably a tier below where he is now, at the back end. I have him in the 50-60 area. His bat control is fantastic and he has great speed. But I ultimately see him as an Ichiro type with less power. Thats a pretty good player, but not the upside I like to see within the top 40.

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Lars Anderson at #17. I don't buy the power he has shown and upon reaching AA his K rate went up from 18% to 26%. Toss in the fact that he is a first baseman and I just can't see him being that high yet.
    You do realize you might have to pay for that someday when the Sox and Reds meet in interleague?
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    [QUOTE=redsof72;1802909]Speaking of Frazier, with camp opening in a few days for position players, we are getting close to the moment of truth on what they are going to do to get all the prospects in the lineup even though many play the same positions. My prediction, though I strongly disagree with doing this, is that unless there is an injury somewhere, Frazier will be the shortstop at Carolina. They seem to be fine with keeping Frazier at shortstop even though they know that he can't play there in the big leagues.

    I don't like the idea of putting one of your top five prospects in the organization at a position that you know he won't play, just out of convenience. I would rather set your roster from the top down. Pick your best prospect and put him where he needs to play. Then take your second best prospect and plug him in. Then go to number three and so on. If the Reds agreed with that approach, there is no way Frazier would be at shortstop.

    I/QUOTE]

    Shortstop is the one spot outside of catcher and pitcher where if you are good enough there you can play any of the other positions. Shortstops are usually the best defender on the team, having the best range and arm. If later he needs to move anywhere else it is an easy transition.

    Now if a guy is a 2nd baseman in the minors and only projects at the corners in the bigs then play him there.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    Bellhead, the Reds obviously agree with you. I personally do not. I agree with the idea that a shortstop can learn to play other positions. I just think that he should be learning to play that position while still in the minors. As Cooper pointed out, every position is different. The angle off the bat is different. The decision to charge the ball or lay back is different. The throw is different. The route to the ball is different. Leaving him at shortstop is basically a wasted year defensively. Last season, after Soto got to Dayton, they tried playing Waring some at first base, and Waring was the best defensive third baseman in the league. Not that tough a transition, you would think. Well, Waring's footwork was awful and he broke his thumb trying to do something that an experienced player would have been able to do fairly easily.

    Games get decided at the big league level because one or two plays over the course of nine innings were made or weren't made. Big innings develop because offenses are given an extra out to work with. If you want to be a championship club, you can't afford mistakes on plays that should be made.

    That's my opinion at least.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects

    I am a big fan of Andrew McCutchen, I wish the Reds could swing some kind of deal for him.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.


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