Reds pitching decisions '09- What if.....?

[TStuck]

Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

[thatcoolguy_22]

Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

Hypothetically
If both Owings and Bailey are considered equals I hand the 5th spot over to Homer and leave Owings as the long man in the pen. It will only be detrimental to Bailey's progression for him to spend a year in the pen.

In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.

Has anyone worked out the numbers to see how much Owings hitting would lower his ERA if instead of runs created they were runs prevented? It definitely raises his value. I haven't done any of the math but in theory if he could OPS .800, could that be the equivalent of dropping a 4.9 ERA into the 4.3 area?

[mroby85]

Hypothetically
If both Owings and Bailey are considered equals I hand the 5th spot over to Homer and leave Owings as the long man in the pen. It will only be detrimental to Bailey's progression for him to spend a year in the pen.

In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.

Has anyone worked out the numbers to see how much Owings hitting would lower his ERA if instead of runs created they were runs prevented? It definitely raises his value. I haven't done any of the math but in theory if he could OPS .800, could that be the equivalent of dropping a 4.9 ERA into the 4.3 area?

X2 up until the OPS stuff.

[redsfandan]

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

I was wondering the same thing yesterday. It would depend on how the bullpen pitchers do in the spring but my preference would be to only keep one up here and keep the others in the minors so they can have regular starts. Then if they are still doing well by mid june I'd see what Arroyo could net in a trade.

[xavr1]

If that happens (and here's hoping it does!) I say make Owings the 5th starter for the beginning of the season and put Homer in long relief. Owings has a much better bat and Bailey can use some time in the 'pen to gain confidence. If he is lights out over the course of April-May, think about moving him to Owings' spot, especially if Owings is less than spectacular.

[RedsFanWC]

Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

First - I wouldnt trade anybody, pitching depth is valuable. It is very rare to see a team go through the whole season using only 5 or 6 starters. Having 7 or 8 guys you can send out and feel confident you can win is a luxury that the Reds havent had in a long time.

Second - Having a solid long guy may be key for this team, especially if you are going with 3 young starters (Volquez, Cueto and Bailey). If Owings and Bailey have equally solid springs I would make Owings the long guy out of the pen and give Bailey the 5th spot. While Owings hasnt been around a long time, I would feel better having him come in when any of the young starters struggle instead of Bailey. Plus his bat may spark some comebacks, you never know.

One of the things to factor is that Nick Masset is out of options. If he has a good spring the Reds will have to put him on the 25 man roster or lose him. If thats the case and Owings and Bailey are essentially tied, look for Owings to get the nod in the rotation, Masset in the pen and Bailey at AAA. Bailey can still work on things in the minors, while Owings doesnt have much to prove at AAA, having already shown he can be successful in the majors.

[Casey]

In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.

Totally agree with this. I think it's Owings' job to lose...Bailey could use more time at AAA.

[JoshFogg]

Owings cant be worse than Belisle/ Fogg. I remember when you bought 08 tix...and as the game was approaching.....you would see fogg./belise slated to go for your game...it was like getting punched in the stomach. total waste of money

[ChatterRed]

Bailey goes to triple AAA no matter what. He's still too immature to handle the major leagues. Another year in triple AAA can only do him good. And if he dominates for a couple of months, there are always injuries to the Reds starting pitching staff to consider, so he'll probably get his chance anyway.

Owings has had success in the majors. He is the obvious choice.

[flash]

If that occurs I would make attempt a trade for Sanchez with the Giants. The Giants could use a right handed starter and the Reds a left-hander. It would probably cost the Reds Keppinger as well since the Giants need a 3b man.

[akron3344]

its alwaysa about bailey and owings with you guys never ramirez the guy who actually can pitch

[redsfandan]

That's cuz Bailey still has the highest ceiling and Owings has had the most success in the majors so far.
I'd probably rank them:

1) Owings
2) Ramirez


3) Bailey
4) Thompson





5) Maloney

[UPRedsFan]

I wouldn't trade anyone. You need more than 5 sp to get thru a season.

If Bailey earns it, then he gets the 5th spot and Owings goes to long man. If that's the case, I might consider carrying a 13 man staff early in the year. Gives you an extra pitcher in April/May and doesn't necessarily hurt your bench since Owings can pinch hit.

However, if Bailey proves himself and we're not vying for the playoffs, I would definitely consider trading Arroyo in August.

Have to say, I'm intrigued about the Hernandez comment I read over the weekend about Homer's control so far. What if??? Can you just imagine, Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Homer equaling what Cueto did last year?

[JoshFogg]

at this point, the rotation should be very very solid. I want Bailey to be the 5, but owings is the best option and bailey stinks.

[Cant Touch This]

Bailey goes to triple AAA no matter what.

Is that like AAAAAAAAA?