Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 55

Thread: How many fewer runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Crescent Springs KY
    Posts
    3,593

    How many fewer runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    The general consensus here is that the defense & pitching are better but the offense is worse. I spent some time looking at the offense position by position.

    Catcher:
    2008 Bako 299 ABs with 59 runs produced (rbi & runs minus home runs).
    2008 Ross 134 ABs with 27 runs produced.
    2008 Javy ~64 ABs as a catcher with 24 runs produced.
    2008 Hanigan 85 ABS with 16 runs produced.
    2008 Hernandez with the Os had 463 Abs with 99 runs produced.
    Net: -11 runs (suprisingly)

    1B:
    Votto had a great rookie year. He should improve each year over the next 2-3years.
    Last year he produced 129 runs.
    He is eventually capable of a 30 HR Ė 100 run Ė 100 rbi season which would be 170 runs.
    I am pencilling him in for 140 runs prodcued.
    Net: +11 runs

    2B:
    BP is capable of better offense than we saw last year but I donít think weíll see it.
    Prediction: no change.

    SS:
    Big if here. IF Gonzo is healthy.
    In 2008 Kep played ~80% of his games at SS (108/134 games). He produced 85 runs total, which is ~68 runs produced in 108 games at SS.
    In 2007 Gonzo produced 94 runs in 110 games at SS.
    Net: +26 runs

    3B:
    EE is an enigma. Most here think he will improve.
    Lets guess: +10 runs

    LF:
    Lets look at Dunnís numbers.
    2006: 160 games .855 OPS 151 runs produced
    2007: 152 games .940 OPS 167 runs produced
    2008: 158 games .898 OPS 139 runs produced
    Over 3 years averages ~0.97 runs produced per game played.

    For comparisons sake lets look at some guys who played in similar parks to the Reds.
    Ryan Howard 2006-2008 OPS~.979 1.25 runs produced per game.
    Josh Hamilton 2007-2008 OPS~.908 1.12 runs produced per game.
    Michael Young 2006-2008 OPS~.779 1.10 runs produced per game
    Pat Burrell 2006-2008 OPS~.889 0.91 runs produced per game
    Chase Utley 2006-2008 OPS~.932 1.26 runs produced per game

    Notice Dunn & Burrell (similar player) donít seem to be producing runs compared to other players based on OPS. Why exactly this is I am not sure.
    It has been discussed a lot in the past.

    I looked at a few players with career OPS+ stats of ~110-115 (Dunnís career OPS+ is 130).
    M Tejada OPS+ 112 produces 1.08 runs per game.
    R Martin OPS+ 108 produces 0.98 runs per game.
    A Soriano OPS+ 116 produces 1.02 runs per game.

    In order for the Reds to replace Dunnís offensive production they do NOT have to replace his career OPS+ of 130. They have to replace his production of 0.97 runs per game.

    Dickerson had a great 2008 in AAA & in the bigs.
    His career in the minors: 0.93 runs produced per game.
    2008 in AAA: 1.10 runs produced per game
    Note I do not have his numbers vs RHP only but he was a LOT better in his career vs RHP.

    I am going to make a bold prediction: The left fielders (platoon of Dickerson with Hairston or Gomes) will not match Dunnís OPS but will match his production of 0.97 runs per game.
    (note a line of 90 runs Ė 20 HR Ė 90 rbis is .99 runs per game)
    Net: no change

    CF/RF:
    2008 Patterson: 70 runs produced in 136 games.
    2008 Taveras: 89 runs produced in 133 games.

    2008 Bruce: 94 runs produced in 108 games ( 0.87 runs produced per game ).
    I expect Bruce to improve. Say 10 runs extra produced over a season.
    (this is a conservative estimate). 162 games x .87 = 141 & 10 = 151

    2008 Griffey: 89 runs produced in 102 games

    Adds up to this: In 2008 Patterson/Bruce/Griffey in produced 0.73 runs per game (ouch!). If in 2009 Taveras produces at his poor 2008 level & Bruce progresses to producing ~0.93 run per game the net is: + 4 runs.

    Overall:
    Folks the above math adds up to a net gain of 40 runs!

    Again the key for the Reds seems to be a healthy Alex Gonzales both for his decent offense & decent defense.

    Thoughts?
    .

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Columbia, MO
    Posts
    1,907

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Thoughts?
    Adding runs scored to RBI and then subtracting home runs from this value is not conducive to this analysis. Use runs created.

  4. #3
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky
    Posts
    16,957

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Adding runs scored to RBI and then subtracting home runs from this value is not conducive to this analysis. Use runs created.
    Yup.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  5. #4
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Crescent Springs KY
    Posts
    3,593

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Adding runs scored to RBI and then subtracting home runs from this value is not conducive to this analysis. Use runs created.
    Runs produced is a stat that has been around a long time.
    Why is runs created better?

    Also where would I find this data?
    .

  6. #5
    Quiet Reverence Vada Pinson Fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    800

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Very interesting Will. I cannot see Hernandez and Hannigan coming up a -11 runs short over the course of the 2009 season from the '08 production of Bako, Ross and Valentin even though the stats from '08 show it.

    Then there's the factor on the starting 8 of not having Griffey and Dunn around. I think that will transpire into better numbers for Brandon Phillips and perhaps Edwin Encarnacion. Hopefully when we look back on the 2009 season we will call it (with no Griffey and no Dunn around) the Step-Up Factor. We will see who stepped up their production and who didn't. I know this will be an intangible item to determine but the young guys will no longer play in the shadow of Dunn or Griffey.

    Thanks Will for the time you spent on your very interesting findings!

    Jerry

  7. #6
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Columbia, MO
    Posts
    1,907

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Runs produced is a stat that has been around a long time.
    Why is runs created better?
    "Runs produced" relies on two metrics that are heavily team dependent. RBI relies on people being on base when the batter comes to the plate and runs depends on the player being on base when another batter gets a hit (or a number of other rare occurrences). The one exception to this are homeruns, which you have removed. Runs Created measures a player's offensive contribution in isolation.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

    Also where would I find this data?
    ESPN lists it: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/...lit=0&type=exp

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,929

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    FWIW, PECOTA, which uses top notch projections of player performance and distributes playing time pegs the Reds for 786 runs scored and 792 runs allowed. Both numbers seem high to me, but it projects a pretty optimistic view of our offensive production across the board.

    Code:
    Pos  	Order  	Name  			PT%  	PA 	AVG 	R 	HR 	RBI 	SB 	OBP 	SLG 	VORP
    CF 	1 	Willy Taveras 		65 	491 	.282 	73 	1 	35 	52 	.336 	.347 	0.6
      	  	Chris Dickerson 	25 	189 	.247 	67 	16 	53 	18 	.333 	.427 	10.1
      	  	Norris Hopper 		10 	75 	.274 	21 	0 	13 	5 	.330 	.324 	-0.7
    
    2B 	2 	Brandon Phillips 	85 	627 	.282 	89 	21 	75 	22 	.337 	.458 	30.3
      	  	Jeff Keppinger 		10 	73 	.286 	50 	4 	39 	2 	.343 	.372 	12.2
      	  	Danny Richar 		5 	36 	.253 	4 	1 	4 	1 	.318 	.401 	0.7
    
    RF 	3 	Jay Bruce 		85 	612 	.283 	87 	28 	91 	12 	.342 	.509 	29.8
      	  	Jerry Hairston 		10 	72 	.284 	41 	8 	35 	9 	.343 	.450 	14.2
      	  	Jonny Gomes 		5	36 	.217 	36 	12 	39 	10 	.309 	.419 	2.6
    
    1B 	4 	Joey Votto 		85 	597 	.289 	92 	27 	90 	11 	.370 	.514 	33.9
      	  	Daryle Ward 		15 	105 	.271 	13 	4 	16 	0 	.371 	.464 	4.8
    
    LF 	5 	Chris Dickerson 	45 	308 	.247 	67 	16 	53 	18 	.333 	.427 	10.1
      	  	Jonny Gomes 		30 	205 	.217 	36 	12 	39 	10 	.309 	.419 	2.6
      	  	Norris Hopper 		15 	102 	.274 	21 	0 	13 	5 	.330 	.324 	-0.7
      	  	Jerry Hairston 		10 	68 	.284 	41 	8 	35 	9 	.343 	.450 	14.2
    
    3B 	6 	Edwin Encarnacion 	85 	566 	.283 	81 	23 	79 	5 	.365 	.493 	34.0
      	  	Jeff Keppinger 		10 	66 	.286 	50 	4 	39 	2 	.343 	.372 	12.2
      	  	Juan Francisco 		5 	33 	.245 	3 	1 	4 	0 	.281 	.425 	0.0
    
    SS 	7 	Alex Gonzalez 		55 	356 	.250 	37 	11 	44 	1 	.309 	.406 	9.2
      	  	Jeff Keppinger 		35 	227 	.286 	50 	4 	39 	2 	.343 	.372 	12.2
      	  	Jerry Hairston 		10 	64 	.284 	41 	8 	35 	9 	.343 	.450 	14.2
    
    C 	8 	Ramon Hernandez 	60 	378 	.259 	39 	10 	47 	0 	.318 	.396 	7.0
      	  	Ryan Hanigan 		30 	189 	.232 	17 	3 	16 	0 	.315 	.325 	-1.2
      	  	Wilkin Castillo 	10 	63 	.234 	5 	1 	5 	1 	.273 	.328 	-1.7
    
    PH 	9 	Jerry Hairston 		15 	91 	.284 	41 	8 	35 	9 	.343 	.450 	14.2
      	  	Jeff Keppinger 		15 	91 	.286 	50 	4 	39 	2 	.343 	.372 	12.2
      	  	Jonny Gomes 		10 	61 	.217 	36 	12 	39 	10 	.309 	.419 	2.6
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,107

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Despite the data used, I think I agree with the end result. This team will score 40-50 more runs in 2009 than it did in 2008.

  10. #9
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    25,317

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    If the Reds get those numbers from Votto, Bruce, and Edwin and even Phillips they will score more runs then they did last year and will finish above .500.

  11. #10
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    If the Reds score 786 runs they'll win 85+ games, IMO.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  12. #11
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midland, MI
    Posts
    6,413

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    What's with all the projection systems having Hairston with a .450+ SLG%?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #12
    Member medford's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    2,081

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    interesting analysis, but one thing that seems to be missing from last year's data is Jerry Hariston's production. You look at Kep @ SS, but Jerry played there a lot, as well as in LF. I don't think you can just discount his production as he saw a lot of time, and I think that eats into your 40 run differenatial a bit.

    I think this season (offensively anyways) all comes down to 3 things:
    1st, improving Tavares' OBP (or having a tablesetter w/ good OBP in the 1 hole)
    2nd, finding somebody to successfully fill the 2 hole (assuming either Dickerson or JH
    3rd, Both Bruce & Votto improving along their (or at least my) expected career track.

    I'm going to assume you're going to see a combination of the last 2 years for Phillips, not quite the 2007 season that he had, but a bit more consistant than last year. I'll also assume we'll see a slight improvement in EE, but more or less the same player. Get those first 3 things in order, and this offense could be much better than last year. Miss fire on 1 or 2 of those 3 things, and the offense could get mired down in mediocrity.

  14. #13
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    20,929

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Just as a point of reference, the Reds scored 704 runs last year and allowed 800.

    I just find it extremely hard to believe the Pecota projection that the Reds will gain 82 runs scored this year, after subtracting Dunn and Jr and possibly subtracting Harriston's career year. I thank RedsManRick for posting that information, it was an interesting read, but I have found Pecota to be very overly optimistic for hitters in the past. IIRC, it predicted some monster years from Wily Mo Pena. I haven't studied Pecota in depth, but it seems to consistently overestimate production from young hitters.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #14
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,125

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    "Runs produced" relies on two metrics that are heavily team dependent. RBI relies on people being on base when the batter comes to the plate and runs depends on the player being on base when another batter gets a hit (or a number of other rare occurrences). The one exception to this are homeruns, which you have removed. Runs Created measures a player's offensive contribution in isolation.
    Aren't we talking about overall team runs here? I don't want to get into a debate about which is the best overall metric but I think Will's analysis is pretty interesting. IMO the key to this season is the production that comes out of LF. Dickerson in 100 at bats last season had an OPS of over 1.000. He all but made us forget Dunn's production during the last 30 or so games of the year. It is very doubtful that he continues that torrid pace but what will he do in 09?

    Offensively I think there will be a few keys to the Reds. Will Bruce continue to improve? Will Edwin come into his own? What will Dickerson do? Where will Taveras OBP be? If things begin to click for the Reds and their younger players improve this could be an exciting year. If Bruce and Dickerson hit a sophomore slump and Taveras leads off and has an OBP around .315 then it could be a disastrous year.

  16. #15
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,125

    Re: How many less runs will the Reds offense produce in 2009?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    JI just find it extremely hard to believe the Pecota projection that the Reds will gain 82 runs scored this year, after subtracting Dunn and Jr and possibly subtracting Harriston's career year.
    You continue to bring this up and I am curious. Do you really thing the Reds will miss Jr? The Reds will need to find a replacement for Dunn's bat but I just don't see the loss of Jr being all that great. In fact I think Bruce in RF with a mediocre year will sufficiently replace Jr.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25