The general consensus here is that the defense & pitching are better but the offense is worse. I spent some time looking at the offense position by position.
2008 Bako 299 ABs with 59 runs produced (rbi & runs minus home runs).
2008 Ross 134 ABs with 27 runs produced.
2008 Javy ~64 ABs as a catcher with 24 runs produced.
2008 Hanigan 85 ABS with 16 runs produced.
2008 Hernandez with the Os had 463 Abs with 99 runs produced.
Net: -11 runs (suprisingly)
Votto had a great rookie year. He should improve each year over the next 2-3years.
Last year he produced 129 runs.
He is eventually capable of a 30 HR Ė 100 run Ė 100 rbi season which would be 170 runs.
I am pencilling him in for 140 runs prodcued.
Net: +11 runs
BP is capable of better offense than we saw last year but I donít think weíll see it.
Prediction: no change.
Big if here. IF Gonzo is healthy.
In 2008 Kep played ~80% of his games at SS (108/134 games). He produced 85 runs total, which is ~68 runs produced in 108 games at SS.
In 2007 Gonzo produced 94 runs in 110 games at SS.
Net: +26 runs
EE is an enigma. Most here think he will improve.
Lets guess: +10 runs
Lets look at Dunnís numbers.
2006: 160 games .855 OPS 151 runs produced
2007: 152 games .940 OPS 167 runs produced
2008: 158 games .898 OPS 139 runs produced
Over 3 years averages ~0.97 runs produced per game played.
For comparisons sake lets look at some guys who played in similar parks to the Reds.
Ryan Howard 2006-2008 OPS~.979 1.25 runs produced per game.
Josh Hamilton 2007-2008 OPS~.908 1.12 runs produced per game.
Michael Young 2006-2008 OPS~.779 1.10 runs produced per game
Pat Burrell 2006-2008 OPS~.889 0.91 runs produced per game
Chase Utley 2006-2008 OPS~.932 1.26 runs produced per game
Notice Dunn & Burrell (similar player) donít seem to be producing runs compared to other players based on OPS. Why exactly this is I am not sure.
It has been discussed a lot in the past.
I looked at a few players with career OPS+ stats of ~110-115 (Dunnís career OPS+ is 130).
M Tejada OPS+ 112 produces 1.08 runs per game.
R Martin OPS+ 108 produces 0.98 runs per game.
A Soriano OPS+ 116 produces 1.02 runs per game.
In order for the Reds to replace Dunnís offensive production they do NOT have to replace his career OPS+ of 130. They have to replace his production of 0.97 runs per game.
Dickerson had a great 2008 in AAA & in the bigs.
His career in the minors: 0.93 runs produced per game.
2008 in AAA: 1.10 runs produced per game
Note I do not have his numbers vs RHP only but he was a LOT better in his career vs RHP.
I am going to make a bold prediction: The left fielders (platoon of Dickerson with Hairston or Gomes) will not match Dunnís OPS but will match his production of 0.97 runs per game.
(note a line of 90 runs Ė 20 HR Ė 90 rbis is .99 runs per game)
Net: no change
2008 Patterson: 70 runs produced in 136 games.
2008 Taveras: 89 runs produced in 133 games.
2008 Bruce: 94 runs produced in 108 games ( 0.87 runs produced per game ).
I expect Bruce to improve. Say 10 runs extra produced over a season.
(this is a conservative estimate). 162 games x .87 = 141 & 10 = 151
2008 Griffey: 89 runs produced in 102 games
Adds up to this: In 2008 Patterson/Bruce/Griffey in produced 0.73 runs per game (ouch!). If in 2009 Taveras produces at his poor 2008 level & Bruce progresses to producing ~0.93 run per game the net is: + 4 runs.
Folks the above math adds up to a net gain of 40 runs!
Again the key for the Reds seems to be a healthy Alex Gonzales both for his decent offense & decent defense.