Alonso - 35
Frazier - 60
That is all for Cincy.
Alonso - 35
Frazier - 60
That is all for Cincy.
Not a great list if you ask me.
Colby Rasmus played half a season and posted a .742 OPS in a hitters league ... and he moved up to #3.
Drew Stubbs fell from the top 100 despite OPSing over .800 in Double-A and Triple-A (albeit small sample size).
Once again, Josh Vitters cracked the top 100 while Neftali Soto is nowhere to be found despite Soto having much better numbers.
Why do you keep saying that Soto has much better numbers than Vitters? I don't get it.Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
Why do I keep saying that? Because it's true.
They have similar skills sets and Soto's numbers are much better.
Neftali Soto:
.327/.360/.522 - .882 OPS in 437 minor league atbats.
Josh Vitters:
.290/.327/.435 - .762 OPS in 324 minor league atbats.
Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 02-24-2009 at 01:14 PM.
Look closer. In his only decent sample size, Vitters hit .328/.365/.498 in Low A as an 18 year old.
Soto, in a comparable sample size, hit .326/.343/.500 at Dayton as a 19 year old.
Soto has 107 games total and his numbers are very skewed by his 15 game tirade at Billings last year.
Their performances are extremely comparable.
Unlike Vitters, Soto has hit well everywhere he's been. And no, their performances aren't comparable unless you think a 120 point difference in OPS is similar. Neftali Soto has outperformed Josh Vitters and it really hasn't been all that close so far.
OBM with some ink:
Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
How come Drew Stubbs fell out of the top 100 after having his best season?
A: John Manuel: Reports on his defense and tools in general actually weren't as good this year as they were before. I for one have lowered the ceiling of what it sounds like he'll be. He did have a better year in some ways but he also struck out a lot and hit fewer home rusn in '08; it seems less like that this is another Mike Cameron.
Did Manuel just pull that out of his butt? Because that's the first time anyone's mentioned that about Stubbs. Kevin Goldstein's scouting report is the exact opposite of Manuel's. Heck, his fellow co-worker JJ Cooper's scouting report is the exact opposite of his. I'd love to know where Manuel got his info. Oh, and Stubbs struckout less in 2008 than he did in 2007 (123 K's in 470 AB in 2008, 142 K's in 497 AB in 2007).
Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 02-24-2009 at 02:49 PM.
Um, Vitters is a better athlete and defender? Again, the first I've heard of that.
Kevin Goldstein says Vitters bat is his only tool. He says he doesn't run well and needs to improve his reactions and footwork at third base. Jim Callis (of BA) says Vitters has fringy speed now and it will become below average once he fills out. Yeah, he sure sounds like a great athlete.
Goldstein says Soto has good hands and a strong arm at third base, though he needs to improve his footwork. BA and BP agree that his speed is below average. Neither are great athletes.
It sounds like Manuel gets his info from a different source than his co-workers and other prospect evaluators.
Can't say I'm surprised. BA usually underrates Reds prospects. If Soto were drafted as high as Vitters he'd probably rank in the top 50.
Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 02-24-2009 at 02:44 PM.
I think you just answered your question. Its the same reason Drew Stubbs was ranked when he was struggling to adjust to professional baseball. The same reason Alonso is ranked in the top 35 when he has only a handful of professional at bats. And its the same reason that Cueto barely cracked to top 50 when many thought he was much more refined and closer to the bigs than Homer Bailey.
When you have over 150 teams that need to be scouted and analyzed only the top tier prospects are likely legit. Many people probably would refer to draft slot/signing bonuses, combine type numbers (arm strength, speed, footwork, etc.), and raw numbers. Too often by just looking at the summary you fail to recognize what separates player A from player B.
And a little love for me:
Q: Ed from NJ asks:
Why the love for Vitters while ignoring Neftali Soto?
A: John Manuel: Better athleticism and defense for Vitters; Soto's scouting report doesn't encourage me he'll stay at 3b -- limited range, rough footwork, below-average athlete. Not encouraging.
The quote about soto moving off 3rd is exactly what I was talking about when we had this discussion in a previous thread. It severely dings his overall value.
Soto is still a fine prospect, and I'm glad he's a red, but he doesn't have the pedigree or all around game to be a top 100 prospect IMHO. He has question marks. If he can't play 3rd, where? His bat isn't nearly as valuable on the corner outfield spots, or first base.
All that said, not impressed with BA's list this year, and if I'm not mistaken, I believe they did it quite differently.. It wasn't the normal round table discussion? But an average - so to speak - of top 100's by all the staff, which could severely effect the results of the list, especially if a certain bias comes into play.
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
seems the most reasonable conclusion is that these guys are taking a WAG at this stuff. I don't waste any energy worrying about who is ranked where.
I don't mind only Alonso and Frazier in the Top 100 at all, as those are the only Cincinnati "sure bets." (As sure as prospects get, anyway.) Both have plus bats and good to great track records that suggest success as they ramp up the minor league ladder.
That said, the Reds should have at least four other guys just outside the Top 100, and another 20 or so in the Top 200.
Valaika, Dorn, Stubbs and Soto all just miss the BA Top 100 for different reasons. Stubbs plays an elite position elitely and has enough bat to stick as a starter. Probably. Will he gain power in that bat? Perhaps. But he'll K at a rate that's really hard to swallow if he doesn't smack 20 dingers yearly or play Gold Glove defense at a premium position. There are enough questions that his absence makes sense.
Soto, OTOH, has shown a propensity for hitting the ball hard and succeeding at a young age. That Vitters just made it in and Soto is out is okay, as long as they're close, because those numbers seem to point to Soto and it's not like the kid was lacking talent. He broke Juan Gonzalez's HR record in Puerto Rico as a kid. His question is his glove. With Frazier and EdE in front of him (not to mention the conundrum that is Francisco), he may have the glove, but not the spot. From almost all reports, Soto's a but slow, but his instincts are good. And his bat, if it translates as is from the minors, is certainly good enough to play a corner OF spot.
Why is he off the list, then? I dunno. It's a headscratcher for me. The lack of walks perhaps. And the glove, I suppose. And the speed. Oh, wait. Three questions marks. I guess I know why.
Dorn is another animal, but one BA continually marks low. He's simply not really valued by Cincinnati, despite his ridiculous production. His tools are average at best, but he plays above his supposed ceiling (or at least has at the minor league level). I'd certainly rank him in the Top 100 if it were me, but I value production much more than tools. He's, IMO, the most likely to sneak up on BA and provide league average production in a LF for league minimum prices. Still, it's not like he's foolproof. His glove is a question mark, though it's not as bad as some think. His speed isn't top notch, not is his arm. But that bat looks great when you compare him to almost anyone else in the minor league system.
Valaika, I don't get. He plays a premium position and has hit very well (respective of that position) throughout his minor league career. Perhaps part of it is the low draft position, as BA is notorious for weighing draft position ahead of most other nuances. Perhaps it's questions about his glove (though those have cleared up to the point that he now profiles as an average SS at the major league level, with an underwhelming arm). He doesn't walk all that much either, so perhaps the combination of the three makes him #101.
For whatever reason, Cincinnati should have four guys at least in the next 25 or so prospects and all four could rightfully outproduce at least half of the guys on the list. It's not like these things are foolproof, after all.
BA has also ranked players by position. Here's how the Reds fared:
C - No one in the top 25, though Mesoraco got mentioned as an X Factor.
1B - Alonso #5 of 15
2B - No one in top 10 (rated as the weakest overall position in the minors)
SS - Valaika #8 of 15
3B - Frazier #7, Francisco #19 and Soto #20 of 20
CF - Stubbs #15 of 15
Corner OF - No one in top 20
RH starter - No one in top 35
LH starter - No one in top 20
Reliever - No one in top 10
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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