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Thread: Dusty on Juan Francisco

  1. #31
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    What big time player had a .320 OBP? Heck, even Ryan Braun had a .335 OBP last year...

    Probably not too many, but Beltre has a lifetime .327 OBP. Garrett Anderson too. Last year Cantu had .277/29/95 with a .327 OBP. Mark Reynolds hit 28 homers and 97 RBIs with a .320 OBP.

    And over the history of baseball, there have been a number of free swingers who contributed offensively. I remember Manny Sanguillen who was the prototype free swinger who still produced offensively.

    Obviously it's not an advantage to hit for a low OBP, but there have been very productive hitters in the .320 -.330 OBP range.

    The main point, though, is that JF if only 21. His OBP in the Winter League this year was .419 in 161 at bats.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-01-2009 at 07:42 AM.

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  3. #32
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    AA Hickory? Really?
    There are a lot worse rosters to swipe if you had the chance, though.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  4. #33
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    He's got power and a strong arm but likely will end up at first base making his arm strength a bit of a waste.
    Meanwhile, at spring training...

    "After watching him for little more than a week, former major-league third baseman David Bell, manager of the Reds Class AA Hickory team, says he should stay right where he is.

    "He has really good actions at third base, has the arm strength to play there and has good hands," said Bell. "Good hands comes from good footwork and he has that, too. As footwork improves, your hands get softer."
    The Wily Mo comp gets more tenuous the more we learn about Francisco.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #34
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Meanwhile, at spring training...



    The Wily Mo comp gets more tenuous the more we learn about Francisco.
    Not really. The knock on Francisco is that has no range and and isn't a good enough runner to automatically assume he could do well in the outfield especially given concerns about how he might fill out.

    David Bell could pick it when he played but really is he saying anything about Francisco other than "don't move him to first yet-he might get better"?

    Juan is Wily mo lite (i.e. a version even Bowden wouldn't fream could play CF).
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Not really. The knock on Francisco is that has no range and and isn't a good enough runner to automatically assume he could do well in the outfield especially given concerns about how he might fill out.
    We're comparing to WMP, right? So, saying Francisco may not do well in the OF means he might be as bad out there as WMP? WMP is one of the worst outfielders I've seen in the major leagues.

    David Bell could pick it when he played but really is he saying anything about Francisco other than "don't move him to first yet-he might get better"?
    If I recall correctly, Francisco was voted best defensive 3B in the Florida State League this past year. Combine that with Bell's comments, and your suggestion that Francisco has no value as a 3B seems unnecessarily stubborn. And again, seeing as how we're comparing Francisco to WMP, it should be obvious that Francisco's ability to play infield -- whether it be 3B or 1B -- makes him a decidedly more valuable defensive asset than WMP ever was or will be (WMP is quickly headed to DH-only status, I think).

    Juan is Wily mo lite (i.e. a version even Bowden wouldn't fream could play CF).
    Not sure what you're saying here. That Wily Mo has better speed? Maybe so, but it certainly has translated into effective defense or effective baserunning.

    I see it this way -- Francisco has good hands in the field and at the plate -- something Pena does not have. This will allow Francisco to play the infield. Pena has no shot at playing the infield, and his contributions in the OF have always been suspect, at best. At the plate, Francisco has the barrel skills (partly a function of good hands) that will allow him to adjust to offspeed stuff and use the whole field more effectively than Wily Mo. His K rate in the minors is improving, and right now sits at 24%, compared to WMP's 30%. His minor league BA is .275, about 20 points higher than WMP's was. Better hands -- and, as noted earlier, a much better timeline on which to develop his skiils -- give Francisco a chance to be a much more productive hitter in the major leagues than WMP has been.

    Throw in other stuff like instincts and durability, where signs point to Francisco being superior, and I have a hard time seeing how he stacks up as "Wily Mo lite."
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  7. #36
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    We're comparing to WMP, right? So, saying Francisco may not do well in the OF means he might be as bad out there as WMP? WMP is one of the worst outfielders I've seen in the major leagues.



    If I recall correctly, Francisco was voted best defensive 3B in the Florida State League this past year. Combine that with Bell's comments, and your suggestion that Francisco has no value as a 3B seems unnecessarily stubborn. And again, seeing as how we're comparing Francisco to WMP, it should be obvious that Francisco's ability to play infield -- whether it be 3B or 1B -- makes him a decidedly more valuable defensive asset than WMP ever was or will be (WMP is quickly headed to DH-only status, I think).



    Not sure what you're saying here. That Wily Mo has better speed? Maybe so, but it certainly has translated into effective defense or effective baserunning.

    I see it this way -- Francisco has good hands in the field and at the plate -- something Pena does not have. This will allow Francisco to play the infield. Pena has no shot at playing the infield, and his contributions in the OF have always been suspect, at best. At the plate, Francisco has the barrel skills (partly a function of good hands) that will allow him to adjust to offspeed stuff and use the whole field more effectively than Wily Mo. His K rate in the minors is improving, and right now sits at 24%, compared to WMP's 30%. His minor league BA is .275, about 20 points higher than WMP's was. Better hands -- and, as noted earlier, a much better timeline on which to develop his skiils -- give Francisco a chance to be a much more productive hitter in the major leagues than WMP has been.

    Throw in other stuff like instincts and durability, where signs point to Francisco being superior, and I have a hard time seeing how he stacks up as "Wily Mo lite."
    What I'm saying is that Juan has power and a strong arm. Concern over range issues suggests his road to the majors likely rests solely on power.

    It's a rocky road in other words.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #37
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    If Francisco is the next Pena, let's trade him for the next Arroyo.

  9. #38
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Focus, please, on the Reds top prospects. Which ones do you think could realistically become more potent major league hitters than JF?

    Alonso could, certainly. Soto? Debatable but he's young and advanced and it's possible.

    Anyone else? Do you see Valaika or Stubbs being more of an offensive force than Francisco could be?

    Todd Frazier is a more polished all around hitter. But I think it's an open question whether Francisco or Frazier will be the more feared major league hitter.

  10. #39
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Upside of Francisco? Soto or Alonso. Thats probably it. That said, Francisco's floor is incredibly low in terms of the Majors.

  11. #40
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    If Francisco is the next Pena, let's trade him for the next Arroyo.
    Seriously...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  12. #41
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    Re: Dusty on Juan Francisco

    JUAN POWER: Third base prospect Juan Francisco hit a ball that had the other players talking.

    From one of the back fields, he hit a home run that landed in the visitors’ bullpen at Ed Smith Stadium. Home plate is 498 feet from the bullpen fence and the fence is 8-foot high. It was wind-aided but that’s a pretty good poke.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...303260037/1071
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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