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Thread: Prediction for wins for 2009.

  1. #1
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    Prediction for wins for 2009.

    I'm trying to simplify this to one idea. Totally unrealistic, but fun.

    BA w/ RISP of .270 or less= 75 wins or less.

    BA w/ RISP of .270-.280= 76-85 wins.

    BA w/ RISP of .281 or more= 86 wins or more.

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  3. #2
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    80-82

    all stats out the window
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
    2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1

  4. #3
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    85!

  5. #4
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    Quote Originally Posted by xavr1 View Post
    85!
    86

    Do I hear 87?

  6. #5
    Member mroby85's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    78 (i'm not dyslexic) lol

  7. #6
    OOOOH YEEEAHHHH!! CarolinaRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    83

    Another year of seasoning for the youngsters, Harang bounces back and the defense improves.

  8. #7
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    Under 70 if Duhhhsty lasts the year.

    Maybe 82-85 if Duhhsty's canned and someone that understands 2000s baseball replaces him.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


  9. #8
    Member mroby85's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyder View Post
    Under 70 if Duhhhsty lasts the year.

    Maybe 82-85 if Duhhsty's canned and someone that understands 2000s baseball replaces him.
    I really hope you aren't serious, but i'm afraid that you are.

  10. #9
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    I see a 755-720 run difference. That would be 85 wins according to Pythag.

    Code:
    Hernandez	55
    Hanigan		30
    Votto		105
    Phillips	80
    EE		80
    Gonzo		75
    Kepp		25
    Gomes		45
    Dickerson	55
    Taveras		55
    Bruce		100
    Hairston	25
    Ward		15
    Pitchers 	10
    Total		755
    		
    		
    Volquez		95
    Harang		100
    Cueto		95
    Arroyo		110
    Owings		120
    		
    Ramirez		35
    Bray		20
    Rhodes		25
    Lincoln		35
    Weathers	40
    Burton		25
    Cordero		20
    Total		720
    However, there is a lot of rounding that goes into all those projections and in figuring out the pythag, so it could really be anywhere from 75 wins to 95 wins, technically.

    My gut tells me 89 wins. While I really don't like the Taveras signing, I do like the direction this team has taken. At least an attempt to be based on pitching and defense.

    I have also always liked really young teams. They seem to gel well, and win when they are not supposed to. It's like no one told them that they shouldn't be that good.

    So I am going with my gut.

    89 wins.

  11. #10
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    79 and I don't care what the BA w/RISP is... I will say this team team OBP of .330-.335 will result in 75-80 wins. A team OBP of .340 or better will result in 80+ wins and an actuall shot at the playoffs. .340 and the young arms and old arms coming together means trouble for the NL... the .325 range and no progression from Cueto and Harang means another 68-75 win season.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

  12. #11
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    Quote Originally Posted by mroby85 View Post
    I really hope you aren't serious, but i'm afraid that you are.
    meh the offense isnt in that much worse shape but I still fully expect Duhhsty to repeat the same mistakes as last year that easily could cost this team 5-7 wins it should get.

    So Im updating a bit 74-80 if Duhhsty lasts.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


  13. #12
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    86 and squeaking into the postseason.

  14. #13
    Jack of all trades Root Down's Avatar
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    I'll go 90!

  15. #14
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    I'll say 79-83
    Once a Reds Fan Always a Reds fan

  16. #15
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    Re: Prediction for wins for 2009.

    I see a possibly wide range, depending on how long the "powers that be" take to set the starting line-up and most frequent players. If they keep trying the wash-ups and one-time successes in lieu of what the future should be, then 75 maybe. If they let the young and the dependable develop into a a [B]team[B], then 85, maybe a little more.


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