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Thread: Homer Bailey.........

  1. #1
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Homer Bailey.........

    Man, I know it's early, but I think if he can come around this year, it's especially important. That could go a LONG way toward limiting the innings on Cueto and Volquez, especially with the WBC. That's my biggest fear is Cueto and Volquez shredding their arms. I hope WBC managers take a long look at how SP's were injury prone the last time around after pitching in the tournament.

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Man, I know it's early, but I think if he can come around this year, it's especially important. That could go a LONG way toward limiting the innings on Cueto and Volquez, especially with the WBC. That's my biggest fear is Cueto and Volquez shredding their arms. I hope WBC managers take a long look at how SP's were injury prone the last time around after pitching in the tournament.
    That's exactly why I think the WBC should be discontinued.

    Rem

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    From Fangraphs:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...e-homer-bailey

    Where Have You Gone, Homer Bailey?

    by David Golebiewski - February 28, 2009 · Filed under Starting Pitchers

    Remember “Homer Bailey, top pitching prospect”? It wasn’t that long ago that scouts were drooling over the lanky Texan, whose mid-90’s heat and hammer curve impressed Cincinnati brass enough to use the 7th overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft on him. Dubbing him the “undisputed class among the nation’s high school crop”, Baseball America extolled his virtues: Bailey possessed “the best fastball (92-96 mph), the best righthanded breaking ball (a hard downer curveball), the best command and the most polish among high schoolers in the draft.”

    While that was certainly a heaping helping of praise, the La Grange native lived up to his flame-throwing billing in the earlier stages of his career. Bailey made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dayton of the Low-A Midwest League. Bailey spit fire in 103.2 frames for the Dragons, punching out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He was just as likely to burn himself as opponents, however, with 5.38 BB/9. Despite the strike-zone hiccups, BA named Bailey the 38th-best prospect in the minors (1st in the Cincy system) prior to the 2006 season.

    Bailey began his ‘06 campaign with Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, tossing 70.2 innings for the club. The 6-4, 205 pounder continued to maul batters at the lower levels (10.06 K/9), but he also nearly halved his walk rate, issuing 2.8 free passes per nine innings. The sharper command led to a shiny 3.21 FIP. Pumping gas and showing better polish, Bailey was bumped up to the Southern League, where he pitched 68 innings for the Lookouts. Homer got lucky with homers (0.13 HR/9) and he walked more batters (3.71 BB/9), but his 10.19 K/9 served notice that the Texan could miss bats at the upper levels. BA really showed Bailey some love that offseason, as he was named the 5th-best prospect in the game.

    With such lofty accolades, Bailey entered 2007 with Sistine Chapel-high expectations. He was sent to AAA Louisville, where some cracks began to appear in said chapel. His K rate was good, not great (7.89 K/9 in 67.1 IP), but he walked 4.28 per nine, suggesting that he needed some additional time to hone his craft in the minors. However, Bailey was summoned to Cincinnati in early June, where he struggled to keep his head above water. Bailey’s K/BB was an ugly 1-to-1, as he both whiffed and walked 5.56 hitters per nine innings in 45.1 frames of work. Utilizing a 92.4 MPH fastball (thrown 71.3% of the time) and that patented mid-70’s curve (14.7%), Bailey posted a 4.92 FIP. Despite the rocky introduction, few seemed worried about Homer’s long-term potential: he checked in as the 9th-best talent in the minors, per BA.

    Returned to Louisville to kick off 2008, Bailey improved somewhat, though his performance fell under the level that one might expect from a top-of-the-line farm product. The 22 year-old posted rates of 7.76 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9, with a 3.96 FIP in 111.1 IP. He got his second shot with the Reds during the summer, but things continued to go awry in the show. In 36.1 innings, he didn’t fool many batters (4.46 K/9), nor was he stingy with the walks (4.21 B/9). His FIP was a Boeing-level 6.41, as Homer lived up to his name with 1.98 big flys per nine innings. His once-vaunted velocity was mundane (91.5 MPH) and mechanically-minded analysts were none too pleased with that they saw.

    Bailey has barely managed 5 K’s per nine in his short major league career. Drawing conclusions off of 80-some innings is a terrible idea, but he has had issues putting hitters away in pitcher’s counts. Courtesy of the insanely useful Baseball-Reference, we find that Bailey has surrendered a .287/.359/.440 line with two strikes between 2007 and 2008. For comparison, the NL average in two-strike counts in ‘08 was .185/.256/.284. While the average NL pitcher turned batters into Tony Pena Jr. with two strikes, Bailey allows them to imitate Mark DeRosa.

    Heading into 2009, Bailey has very little shot of cracking the Reds’ starting rotation. That might be for the best, considering his tenuous mechanics and pitch sequencing suggest that he could use some extra seasoning. It would be silly to write off Bailey, but some of the shine is definitely off of his star.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    I still haven't read what his velocity has been in the spring, I think I remember it down last year (89-90 mph)

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    That's exactly why I think the WBC should be discontinued.

    Rem

    Amen, or reserved for amateurs.

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    I'm excited about what I'm reading about Homer. He seems to have come in with a different attitude. He said he worked out harder and took offseason more serious than he has in the past. He's quit drinking, he's throwing his curveball again, and he's locating his fastball so far. It's only spring training, but I'm very encouraged with the way Homer has pitched so far. It would be a tremendous boost to the organization if Homer puts things together. His emergence would give the Reds three starters 25 years old or younger with top-of-rotation stuff.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    As excited as I am, I have to remember that it is only 4 innings. However, it's not the stats that impresses me, it's the reports that we've got about how well he's commanding his fastball.

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    New, improved Bailey?

    By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • March 2, 2009

    BRADENTON, Fla. – Homer Bailey was never one to lack for confidence.

    But a year like Bailey had last year – an absolutely awful year – has a way of shaking up the thinking of even the cockiest of people. That was the case with Bailey. He went into the offseason determined to be better this year.

    “I was more dedicated,” he said. “Before I might have taken a half of a Friday off and go down south. This year, I said: ‘No matter what happens, I’m not missing a workout. I’m going to do the things that when you’re in the middle of season every player says, ‘Damn, this offseason I’m really going to bust my (butt).’ Every year, players come and they’re a little out of shape and it catches up to them. I remember when that happened to me.”

    Bailey’s work has paid off so far. He has been the most impressive pitcher in camp. He threw three innings of shutout, one-hit ball in the Reds’ 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates today.

    He walked one and struck out four.

    “Homer was outstanding,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He’s throwing strikes. His breaking ball is better. He seems very focused.”

    Bailey was named the Reds’ top prospect by Baseball America in 2004, 2005 and 2006 – his first three in professional ball. He was considered the first- or second-best pitching prospect in all of baseball going into 2007. He was good enough in Triple-A that year to earn a July call-up with the Reds.

    He had mixed results with the Reds – 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts.

    He seemed to be on his way.

    But last year in spring training he got beat around a bit, going 1-3 with a 5.21 ERA.

    The season was worse than the preseason. Bailey struggled mightily for the first time in his baseball life. He went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA with the Reds and 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA with Triple-A Louisville. He went from April 30 to Sept. 4 without a win.

    “When you go through a year like I had last year, you get a few things knocked into your head,” he said. “I went back and thought about it a lot more, realized the mistakes I made. I understand it a lot more.”

    Bailey is only 22. He’s still the youngest pitcher in camp and the fourth-youngest player overall. But by making his big league debut as a 21-year-old, he set enormous expectations for himself. At times, he has to dial it back himself and remember how young he is.

    “I have to kind of sit back and keep in mind that I’ve got a lot of time in front of me,” he said, “and that everything is a process. Instead of getting frustrated so much, let it sink in and remember it for next time.”

    A big part of his early success this spring is Bailey is trusting his stuff.

    “Instead of being a little bit timid of throwing a pitch, (I think) it’s probably going to go where I want it to be,” he said. “A lot of work in the offseason has made that possible.”

    Said Baker: “When you’re throwing strikes you can do that. His mechanics are better. He’s come a long way in a short period of time.”

    The Reds didn’t send Bailey to the offseason with any strict marching orders.

    “Not really,” Baker said. “Just be ready, come in in shape. Sometimes it’s maturity. You can tell them whatever you want but they’ve got to do it.”

    With Bailey, the burning desire to get better was there this offseason.

    “Maybe the offseason before I didn’t prepare as much as I think I should have, looking back on it,” he said. “This year, I know the work I put in. I think it’s going to be beneficial. That gives me more confidence.”

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...303020087/1071
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Man, I know it's early, but I think if he can come around this year, it's especially important. That could go a LONG way toward limiting the innings on Cueto and Volquez, especially with the WBC. That's my biggest fear is Cueto and Volquez shredding their arms. I hope WBC managers take a long look at how SP's were injury prone the last time around after pitching in the tournament.
    One of the biggest reasons I'm so happy that Mario Soto is the pitching coach for the Dominican team. He should have Cueto & Volquez's best interest on the top of his priority list.
    2014 predictions:
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Hopefully Homer's had a taste of what Volquez went through and is ready to show his true potential. 5 more innings and we can see what a full start would be like!
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    One of the biggest reasons I'm so happy that Mario Soto is the pitching coach for the Dominican team. He should have Cueto & Volquez's best interest on the top of his priority list.
    Great. But what if the DR manager has the best interest of the Dominican Republic at the top of his list and over rules Soto?

    The Dominican Republic is a very nationally prideful nation. I can easily see them throwing caution to the wind if they think that they can win, what is for them, the World Series and players like Volquez and Cueto be put at risk for the sake of the nation. The Cincinnati Reds? Poof. Who cares about them?

    Rem

  13. #12
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Great. But what if the DR manager has the best interest of the Dominican Republic at the top of his list and over rules Soto?

    The Dominican Republic is a very nationally prideful nation. I can easily see them throwing caution to the wind if they think that they can win, what is for them, the World Series and players like Volquez and Cueto be put at risk for the sake of the nation. The Cincinnati Reds? Poof. Who cares about them?

    Rem
    Fair point. But if that ends up being the case, then I'm sure the Reds will take that into consideration on how they handle them both this season. Despite all the hand-wringing about how Dusty mangles young arms...I didn't see it. I thought he handled both Cueto & Volquez beautifully last season in terms of their innings and number of starts and such. Volquez can handle being pushed a bit more to stretch out his endurance, Cueto still requires kid-gloves for a bit.

    But regardless of the national pride stuff...I'd be VERY surprised if the Dom. Manager didn't listen with an open mind to what Soto said to him.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    ^^^All of what you say is well and good, Sir Charles. But, if the Reds need to adjust to abuse of Cueto/Volauez during the WBC that still takes away from the Reds. It's why I think the WBC is bad for MLB baseball.

    I don't care about a bunch of exhibition games---I care about the upcoming MLB season. But that doesn't mean that countries like the DR, Korea, Mexico, Japan, etc. care more about the MLB season than they care about winning, what are, for me and most other MLB fans in the US, the real baseball season. Yet, for many of the countries the WBC is looked as a 'World Series' or 'Olympic' event. I doubt most fans in the US feel that way.

    And, can you gaurantee me that Mario Soto, a prideful DR citizen, won't let these two guys go a 'little longer' if he thinks the DR would be in a better position to win just because Mario once pitched for the Reds?

    Rem

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    One of the biggest reasons I'm so happy that Mario Soto is the pitching coach for the Dominican team. He should have Cueto & Volquez's best interest on the top of his priority list.
    Amen. This is why I don't have much angst over this, plus I think MLB is watching this closely.
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    Re: Homer Bailey.........

    Just remember that Dick Pole was the pitching coach when Dusty let Harang pitch in San Diego......I just hope that the DR loses the first game they play.
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