Phillips quote

[BLEEDS]

and btw that's his career OPS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[TheNext44]

Good analysis, except not taken in the full context of which it was presented.
:fineprint

So, nice work, but all for naught...



PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not sure what you mean by right context. You said a team OPS of .733.

I think using Phillips career numbers is unfair, since it includes around 500 PA's when he was in Cleveland and not very good. I think he is more likely to have a year like last year than his career numbers. In fact, if you average his years as a Red, his OPS is even higher. But even if you use his career numbers, it means that the team wins 85 games.

If you only have BP be the starting 8 players as the original post suggested, and had the same bench as the Reds did last year, then the team would win 82 games, using career numbers and 85 using just last year.

My point, which I think is hard to refute, is that a team or starting 8 of Brandon Phillips would be a very good team, no matter what numbers you use.

[Kingspoint]

That's preposterous. Try winning games when your TEAM OPS is .733.

Unless you're trying to imply we have 8 Gold Glove Defenders in the field, in which case we still fall short of being able to close the runs gap necessary to field a .500 team or a wildcard team, let alone a World Series team - ESPECIALLY with horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I was saying 8 Gold Gloves. There'd be very few hits, no big innings, and .733 OPS would be just fine when your defense is that good and every base-runner has the speed and stolen base capability of Phillips. Phillips' value to the team is much, much greater than you think. You'll see of that in the form of the 2009 REDS as the Defense will improve at all 8 positions, except 2nd Base, this season.

Improved Defense at 7 positions added to a GG at the 8th position is not measureable by some stat. On this site, for sure, someone will try.

......And Here's The Proof why better defense wins games.......

All of the projected theories out there that use stats have the REDS winning 77 games in 2009. That's not what's going to happen. They are going to win 10 more games than that.....87 WINS...solely because of the improved Defense. The improved Defense will add confidence to the pitching staff, add confidence to the team, get them off the field quickly, lower the optimism of the opposing club, give the team a swagger of confidence, etc., etc., etc.

Mark it down, book it, write it in stone. 87 WINS by the 2009 REDS even though all of the "expert projection stats", which are often very close, and have value sometimes because of that, has the REDS winning 77 games. Improved Defense is not measureable.

That said, 87 wins last year leaves you 10 games out of the Central Division at the end of the year. Who cares? It's all about having fun in 2009 watching this fantastic group of players excel beyond their pythagorean measurements.

[CWRed]

This thread could really be summed up this way...

OBP=extremely important and a huge key to scoring more runs than the opponent which is the ultimate goal.

Those who think it's not important or "overrated" or "contrived"=simply wrong.

Brandon Phillips logic + Dusty Baker logic = words fail me

[Kingspoint]

Bubblegum stats don't win games. NOT getting OUT and getting on base wins games.

Bruce, EE, & Votto have 20-25+ HR Power. They also get more HITS, and GET ON BASE more often than BP. They also don't SUCK against RHP (= 70% of the time), so yeah, I'd bat him 6th against RHP, youbetcha!

1st: I would get a REAL leadoff hitter - someone better than Tavares (which isn't asking for much). Someone who gets on base at a .350+ clip
2nd: A guy like Keppinger (when healthy) - good contact, good hits, doesn't K or GIDP a lot. Again, another healthy .340 -.350 OBP.
3rd: Your best overall hitter - Bruce eventually, but Votto now
4th: Your best slugger - I'd put EE or Bruce here now, until we develop/get/fumble into a proven .900 OPS guy
5th: Your 3rd best .OPS guy. Bruce for now, probably later somebody else from the minors
6th: Guy with talent and potential, but huge holes in his O game/just can't put it all together yet OR just an average hitter on your suck roster OR a great hitter on a monster roster. Right now, this is BP vs. RHP - hacker extraordinaire.
7th: usually a defensive, low-stick guy, like a SS or Catcher (only if said Catcher is a much better tool guy, including speed, do you bat him over that)
8th: catcher (unless as noted in #7 above).


I'm sure you're fine with fast guys who can't get on base, just like Duhsty is, so you'll remain an "ignorance is bliss" type of fan. SWEET!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I'd wish Dusty thought that way.

[Kingspoint]

Didn't mean to imply that, if you took it that way I apologize.

What I was saying was being ignorant of the analysis of the variables and stats that DO correlate to winning baseball - like Duhsty and BP are, and even more so with their recent comments - is no way to go through life, unless you REALLY don't care (hence the bliss part).

I can see from your second part of this post, re: lineup construction, that you don't have that.

Yes, it can be argued that it doesn't have much affect on wins/losses, but it doesn't not have "any" effect. (i.e. it does have some affect).

Biggest thing is, putting guys who don't get on base enough, higher up in the lineup, gives them more PA's than other guys who DO get on base, and that is a huge negative variable no matter how you slice it.

SO, yes, I'd bat BP no sooner than 6th versus RHP, but I would bat him 4th versus LHP, he absolutely destroys them, but unfortunately that's only a shade under 30% of the time, and it skews his HORRIBLE other 70% of AB's to make his overall numbers look mediocre/respectable.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Don Gullett said it best 33 years ago. "It's not rocket science. Fewer men on base equals fewer runs scored." (and vice-versa)

[Kingspoint]

One thing I will agree with you on is that no team can win with horrible pitching. Impossible.

However....

Brandon's OPS last year. was .754, not .733

Last year the league average for team OPS was .744, so a team full of Phillips would actually have a higher OPS than the league average.

More importantly, that figures out to produce around 763 runs, based on league average PA's for a team. That would place the team sixth in the league in offense last year.

A league average team full is of gold glove fielders would save around 63 runs. That is the combined URZ of the 7 gold glove winners last year according to fangraphs (they don't do catchers or pitchers). (A team of Brandon Phillips would probably save more, since he would save more runs in left, right and 1st than the gold glove winners. He probably would allow more at catcher, but probably not much more than Bako and Ross did last year.) The league average runs allowed last year was 748, so a league average team, with all gold glovers would allow around 685 runs (748-63).

A run difference of 763-685 would win 90 games according to Pythag.

So A team full of Brandon Phillips would hypothetically win 90 games, based on last years stats.

That's pretty cool. I like how you did that.

[Kingspoint]

That's pretty cool. I like how you did that.

I did notice that the speed factor of Phillips wasn't included. If every person that got on Base had Phillips' stolen base ability, that would drive opposing pitchers nuts.

[BLEEDS]

Not sure what you mean by right context.

The context with which I Responded to, which was he said 8 BP's and horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Nasty_Boy]

Put it like this... The Reds were 23rd out of 30 teams in OPS from the 4 spot in the lineup, followed by powerhouses Florida, Toronto, LAD, Washington, Seattle, Oakland, and KC. They were 21st in runs scored and 27th in RBI. Brandon only had 67 RBI out of the 4 hole last season.

[Kingspoint]

It's ridiculous for Dusty to Phillips in the #4 hole. It's senseless. I'm liking more and more a lot of things and intangibles that Dusty does for the team, but he has some boneheaded ideas about other things that really makes me scratch my head. Phillips in the #4 hole is one of those.

[Nasty_Boy]

Brandon's numbers were so terrible last year that there is no defending them. You MUST get better production from the #4 spot in the lineup, no questions asked! I get sick of hearing that he is the only player qualified and that nobody else can do the job... Well 21 HRs and 67 RBI isn't exactly getting it done.

[Eric_the_Red]

Isn't Votto the best suited to bat 4th? He hits lefties and righties well, and I think hits the ball harder than anyone else on the team.

[elfmanvt07]

Isn't Votto the best suited to bat 4th? He hits lefties and righties well, and I think hits the ball harder than anyone else on the team.

My thoughts exactly.

I struggle with where to put Brandon. Undeniably, the kid has a gift. His lack of plate discipline takes at least .150 off of his OPS. The kid has pop and a tremendous amount of coordination. I never really viewed BP's attitude as an issue until this interview surfaced, as I now feel it's affecting his offensive production.

I guess he would bat 6th in my ideal lineup as well.

Dickerson
Hopper
Bruce
Votto
EE
BPhil
Ramon
AGon

[Nasty_Boy]

I would hit Votto 3rd at all times. He's your best hitter and you want him getting more ABs. I would hit Bruce 4th against RHP and BP 4th against LHP. Against LHP EE would hit 5th and Bruce 6th until he proved that he could hit them and get on base at a consistent rate. I also wouldn't be opposed to hitting BP 2nd against LHP and hitting EE 4th, especially if Dickerson is in the lineup because he also struggles against LHP.