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Thread: Most Important Prospect?

  1. #31
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    I'm going with Drew Stubbs, follwed closely by Mesoraco.

    SS, CF, and C are organizational weaknesses. I can't see any of the candidates at short making the bigs at that position, Stubbs and Mesoraco seem to be more realistic choices.

    Now, hopefully they can fill the need at short with a high round pick. If so, I pick that guy.
    "Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton


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  3. #32
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    My choice is Neftali Soto, but I don't have time to tell you why. Sorry. But, you did say the word gangbusters, and to me that means Eric Davis type of Minor League numbers, with slugging percentages in the .600's.

    Only five players achieved a SLG in the minors for the REDS last year above the 400's....Soto at .558 and Alex Buchholz at .604, Daniel Dorn at .537, Tony Brown at .500, and Byron Wiley at .635.

    I'm not counting Bruce and Hairston's minor league numbers or anyone else who spent significant time in the Majors.

    With what Soto accomplished last season, he's shown the potential to have a "gangbuster" season this year. I'd love to see it happen. Plus, Soto is at the highest level of all of the players that had a SLG over .500.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-10-2009 at 01:22 AM.

  4. #33
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    I have never seen Frazier play SS so I don't really know weather Frazier will be a ML SS. However, I do know two things:

    1. As pointed out earlier, the scouts just changed their opinion on Valakia from not good enough to play in the majors to acceptable defense on the ML level.

    2. The Reds are still playing Frazier at SS. Why would you play someone at SS if your scouts say he can't make it in the majors at SS. Some scouts in the Reds organization must think there is a chance.

    Conversely, does Frazier have a future with the Reds if he can't play SS. Soto is 3 years younger and just one level below him. Francisco is a year younger and on the same level. Francisco has much more power potential. Soto rarely strikes out. Keep Frazier at SS and hope he can make it as a SS because the future 3B on the Reds is Soto.

    As for the answer to the question I take Bailey. I understand those who threw out the SS we may need. However, you can never have enough pitching, especially quality pitching.

  5. #34
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    The one that brings us a 10-15yr. all-around stud SS in a deal.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 03-10-2009 at 02:00 AM.

  6. #35
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by stock View Post
    2. The Reds are still playing Frazier at SS. Why would you play someone at SS if your scouts say he can't make it in the majors at SS. Some scouts in the Reds organization must think there is a chance.
    So that everyone can get their at bats. He has been on teams where he was the only guy capable to hitting well enough to start and also not making a fool of himself at shortstop. He started 2008 with Brandon Waring and Neftali Soto lined up for 3B in Dayton and then he went to Sarasota where Juan Francisco was playing. None of those guys can play SS like Frazier can. All were prospects though. Playing Frazier out of position made it easy to get everyone their at bats.

    Conversely, does Frazier have a future with the Reds if he can't play SS. Soto is 3 years younger and just one level below him. Francisco is a year younger and on the same level. Francisco has much more power potential. Soto rarely strikes out. Keep Frazier at SS and hope he can make it as a SS because the future 3B on the Reds is Soto.
    Frazier will get to the majors before either of those other guys. Francisco has power, but an absolutely atrocious approach that if not changed, will not result in good numbers. He has shown no signs of being less aggressive. Soto may start the year two levels behind him as there is talk he winds up back in Dayton to start the year. Even if not, he still needs to learn to take a walk and his defense at 3B needs plenty of work. He isn't a year away like Frazier is, he needs more time than that.

  7. #36
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So that everyone can get their at bats. He has been on teams where he was the only guy capable to hitting well enough to start and also not making a fool of himself at shortstop. He started 2008 with Brandon Waring and Neftali Soto lined up for 3B in Dayton and then he went to Sarasota where Juan Francisco was playing. None of those guys can play SS like Frazier can. All were prospects though. Playing Frazier out of position made it easy to get everyone their at bats.

    Doug my question would be "Why can't Frazier play SS?". Soto was drafted as a SS but was quickly moved off the position. It seemed as if the Reds knew right away that they were grooming him to play a different position. Frazier played SS at the college level, is much closer to the bigs than Soto, yet the Reds felt the need to play Frazier at SS.

    Can he play ok SS? If he plays ok SS his bat will be a very plus at SS. Does he have Keppy type range at that position. Has he been projected as a corner IF/OF type because of his body? 6'3" 215lbs is a pretty big SS and I think that may be the main reason why many scouts think he will have to move off the position.

  8. #37
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He started 2008 with Brandon Waring and Neftali Soto lined up for 3B in Dayton and then he went to Sarasota where Juan Francisco was playing.
    The plan with Soto last season was Billings. He only played in Dayton well after Frazier went to Sarasota.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    None of those guys can play SS like Frazier can. All were prospects though. Playing Frazier out of position made it easy to get everyone their at bats.
    Playing your best prospect at a position not suited for him just so a lesser prospect can play, too? I think, more likely, Cincinnati wants to make certain Frazier can't play SS before turning him into a slightly above average 3B. At short, he's a top five offensive player. Again, think Nom-ah with 40 points less BA and the same glove. At 3B, he's Hank Blalock.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Frazier will get to the majors before either of those other guys. Francisco has power, but an absolutely atrocious approach that if not changed, will not result in good numbers. He has shown no signs of being less aggressive. Soto may start the year two levels behind him as there is talk he winds up back in Dayton to start the year. Even if not, he still needs to learn to take a walk and his defense at 3B needs plenty of work. He isn't a year away like Frazier is, he needs more time than that.
    But EdE just signed a two-year contract and Jocketty has said Encarnacion is one of those five "untouchables". Perhaps that's lip service. Perhaps he's planning on a two-year window, then putting Francisco or Soto (who is the definition of a fast riser) in that spot.

  9. #38
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Stubbs and Bailey.

    But I would love to see Valaika go all Ian Kinsler and make Brandon Phillips expendable, especially before he gets expensive.

  10. #39
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Doug my question would be "Why can't Frazier play SS?". Soto was drafted as a SS but was quickly moved off the position. It seemed as if the Reds knew right away that they were grooming him to play a different position. Frazier played SS at the college level, is much closer to the bigs than Soto, yet the Reds felt the need to play Frazier at SS.
    Soto played SS in Billings but went to 3B in Dayton because Cozart was there. While I think Frazier will ultimately be more suited for SS than Soto, I don't think either is really the type of guy that should play there. Frazier just doesn't have the range in my eyes and most peoples for that matter. Frazier is a good athlete and its the reason he can get away with playing SS in the minors. He is sure handed and has a good arm. Makes the routine plays.

    Can he play ok SS? If he plays ok SS his bat will be a very plus at SS. Does he have Keppy type range at that position. Has he been projected as a corner IF/OF type because of his body? 6'3" 215lbs is a pretty big SS and I think that may be the main reason why many scouts think he will have to move off the position.
    He has likely been projected at 3B/OF because of his size and the belief that he will likely add 10 more pounds or so as he ages the next few years. With that said, this team is pretty much all 'eyes' as far as talent evaluation goes, so thats probably working against him at sticking at SS for the Reds.

  11. #40
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The plan with Soto last season was Billings. He only played in Dayton well after Frazier went to Sarasota.
    The only reason that was the plan though was because Cozart and Waring were both older prospects who had less time to move up through the system. Frazier was never one of the guys who had anything to do with Soto. The only reason Frazier started in Dayton was because Cozart wasn't ready to play the first month of the season. As soon as Cozart was able to go, Frazier went to Sarasota.

    Playing your best prospect at a position not suited for him just so a lesser prospect can play, too? I think, more likely, Cincinnati wants to make certain Frazier can't play SS before turning him into a slightly above average 3B. At short, he's a top five offensive player. Again, think Nom-ah with 40 points less BA and the same glove. At 3B, he's Hank Blalock.
    While Frazier was the best prospect of that group, the Reds still had other good prospects that needed time. Its not like they were out there playing Frazier out of position to get 24 year old minor league lifers playing time. Frazier was out of position for a power hitting third baseman with strong defense in Dayton, then a super power hitting third baseman who was young and needs playing time in Juan Francisco down in Sarasota. A comp I made yesterday to Frazier offensively was Edwin Encarnacion. I think its a fairly good way to think of Frazier's ceiling. Similar hitters, both have good power and solid walking skills. I think Frazier may strike out 10-20 more times than Edwin will on average, but thier offensive games are pretty similar.

    But EdE just signed a two-year contract and Jocketty has said Encarnacion is one of those five "untouchables". Perhaps that's lip service. Perhaps he's planning on a two-year window, then putting Francisco or Soto (who is the definition of a fast riser) in that spot.
    Sure, but I think that Frazier playing well in AA/AAA and Edwin still making a ton of throwing errors is going to make the front office make a decision by late this season.

  12. #41
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Stubbs because it would end the revolving of Willy and Corey type players stinking up the joint
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  13. #42
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    This is an excellent thread.

    It's funny that a thread like this popped up, because just a few days ago I was thinking about this very same topic. Plenty of names popped in my head but one really stood out among the others. I thought about Homer Bailey. If he pans out it gives us three starting pitchers with #1 caliber stuff who are 25 years old or younger. What about Yorman Rodriguez or Juan Duran? Those guys have some of the biggest upside of anyone in the minor leagues but I passed on them since they are only 16 and 17 respectively. Neftali Soto could be a superstar caliber hitting if he reaches his potential.

    But the one guy who really stood out was Drew Stubbs. He's already in Triple-A. If he reaches his potential he would give the Reds a center fielder who not only can play plus defense but can also get on base, steal plenty of bases, and hit for solid power. Stubbs reaching his potential would really be a tremendous boost to the organization. Heck, even if he develops into a .750 OPS type it would still make him a great player.

  14. #43
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    The Reds' most important prospect is undoubtedly Homer Bailey.

    Bailey has been up and down, beaten up in the press, but he is a potential front of the rotation starter and is only 22 years old. Many good 22 year old players -- who are on track -- are at High A ball. Bailey is borderline ready for the major leagues now, certainly a AAA-level minor leaguer.

    If Bailey keeps improving, it gives the Reds the ability to trade Harang or Arroyo at the deadline this year when team are panting for pitching. This enables the Reds to re-stock the farm by acquiring more prospects, cut payroll, and continue to build its young pitching staff.

    Does any team have a better young threesome in the rotation than Volquez, Cueto and Bailey?

    Bailey is the key prospect in this system and I don't think there's a close second.

    As a general matter, Rodriguez and Duran are important too because, if they succeed, they vindicate the Reds' Latin American scouting program and may attract others to join them with Cincy. But we won't know about them for awhile. For today, it's Homer.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-12-2009 at 04:49 PM.

  15. #44
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    On the players playing "out of position" topic, there's absolutely nothing wrong (and I encourage it) with getting a prospect, even a top prospect well-trained at more than one position.

  16. #45
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Most Important Prospect?

    Bailey is less important right now because of the presence of Owings and success at AAA of Ramirez, Thompson and Maloney. If Bailey were to fail, there is depth to fall back on, and a solid 1-4 in the rotation for the next 2 years.

    OF depth is thin. Frazier may still be 2 years away, and he currently has no position in the minor leagues. Dorn is likely at LEAST the LH platoon in LF, possibly as soon as this year, but probably next year. Dickerson's success may mitigate the need for Stubbs to succeed, but if he does, it makes for a great long term solution in the OF in regards to defense.
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