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Thread: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Jocketty isn't a scout only GM, his background doesn't lend to that distinction, sure he might lean on scouting as his strength and he might have balked at his success in St Louis being broached by a forced on him (numbers first) partner, but his background with Oakland and with LaRussa means he's actually spent some time discussing numbers in the past. It's not as though he's a Luddite, or even worse a Cam Bonify type of GM.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Re: Reds farm system. I think Dave is both right and wrong. The Reds don't have those big 'ace type' arms in the minors like some other teams do. They do have a slew of guys who can profile as #3-5 types and good bullpen arms though. Homer Bailey and Kyle Lotzkar are the only two arms not in the majors that really show #1 type stuff. That gets teams dinged in ratings like this, because honestly, do you expect Dave to know Pedro Viola, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramirez, Dallas Buck, Jordan Smith, Evan Hildenbrandt, Jeremy Horst and so on? Those guys aren't the sexy names we might see on top 150 lists, but all have relatively good things going for them in one way or another.

    With the bats in the system, there isn't a big time huge impact bat in the upper minors (Alonso/Frazier haven't been there yet), so they are going to get dinged for that too in a system like this.

    I don't agree with where Dave is coming from exactly, but I don't fault him for what he said really. I think his ranking is wrong though.

  4. #18
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Of course. Fans always debate. What does that have to do with a self-appointed expert's judgment that the organization has no discernable direction?
    Rather than attack the author's motives and knowledge, why not engage him in a discussion about his argument?

    I'd rather discuss his argument than discuss him anyway.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Re: Reds farm system. I think Dave is both right and wrong. The Reds don't have those big 'ace type' arms in the minors like some other teams do. They do have a slew of guys who can profile as #3-5 types and good bullpen arms though. Homer Bailey and Kyle Lotzkar are the only two arms not in the majors that really show #1 type stuff. That gets teams dinged in ratings like this, because honestly, do you expect Dave to know Pedro Viola, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramirez, Dallas Buck, Jordan Smith, Evan Hildenbrandt, Jeremy Horst and so on? Those guys aren't the sexy names we might see on top 150 lists, but all have relatively good things going for them in one way or another.

    With the bats in the system, there isn't a big time huge impact bat in the upper minors (Alonso/Frazier haven't been there yet), so they are going to get dinged for that too in a system like this.

    I don't agree with where Dave is coming from exactly, but I don't fault him for what he said really. I think his ranking is wrong though.
    I kind of agree with you. The Reds system has good depth but it's stars have graduated recently. Concerning the rankings, it's tough to critique without seeing the spread but he seems to be saying it's an average system which lumps them in with a big group of teams. Is that really too far out of line?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #20
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Rather than attack the author's motives and knowledge, why not engage him in a discussion about his argument?

    I'd rather discuss his argument than discuss him anyway.
    But wouldn't you want to know the writers motives and knowledge in order to further the debate? IIRC Cameron is a highly sabermetric blogger. Jocketty has a pretty public flame out in St. Louis that really portrayed him as an anti stat guy. To be quite honest that would me to believe that he discounted Jocketty due more to a analysis disagreement than Jocketty's performance history.

    Doug you bring up a pretty good point about the minor league system. But at the same time if you have very limited knowledge of the depth of the Reds farm system then why not take an aggregate of several well established rankings.

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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Homer Bailey and Kyle Lotzkar are the only two arms not in the majors that really show #1 type stuff.
    I'm not sure either Homer or Lotzkar has legitimate #1 stuff. But I'm fairly sure, now, that Sulbaran's stuff is as good as both of theirs. The fastball has nasty movement down in the zone, and the curve is a late, sharp breaker. Haven't seen the change, but it's been given high marks. Add in the kid's intangibles, which appear to be excellent, and you've got a pitcher with a high ceiling, in my opinion.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    I found this quote the most concise description of our situation:

    He’ll do a pretty good job of putting together a roster, but he’s not going to create sustainable long term advantages that can make up for their mid-market payroll size.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Rather than attack the author's motives and knowledge, why not engage him in a discussion about his argument?
    Not interested. As I've said, I think I know what the guy is about -- I remember him from years ago on the TeamOneBaseball site, and I suspect there would be little to gain in presenting him with opposing viewpoints.

    I'd rather discuss his argument than discuss him anyway.
    I've summarized his main argument already: The Reds have no clear direction, and they need to emphasize analytics more. And I've addressed them: On the first count, the direction is easily discernible; on the second count, he has no idea to what extent Jocketty uses his numbers guys (and there are numbers guys there).

    That's it, not much else to say. I think the guy has a strong bias, so that makes me biased against him. Let's just leave it at that.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    He’ll do a pretty good job of putting together a roster, but he’s not going to create sustainable long term advantages that can make up for their mid-market payroll size.
    For those who feel this is an accurate prognostication, can you please explain how one creates sustainable long term advantages in a mid-market situation, and how this obviously differs from what Jocketty has done here? Cuz I must be missing the party.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #25
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    For those who feel this is an accurate prognostication, can you please explain how one creates sustainable long term advantages in a mid-market situation, and how this obviously differs from what Jocketty has done here? Cuz I must be missing the party.
    See Oakland and Minnesota, who have been consistently above average with consistently below average payrolls over the last decade. At it's simplest, you have do something better than everybody else.

    We quite clearly aren't going to find market inefficiencies through analytics, so that pretty much puts us squarely in the out-scout and out-develop box. I'm not convinced we're headed down that road. Jocketty's success in St. Louis was based on a fairly small number of moves happening more or less at the same time -- Carpenter, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen -- it wasn't until his 5th and 6th seasons as GM that the Cards had back to back winning seasons.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-12-2009 at 04:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    See Oakland and Minnesota, who have been consistently above average with consistently below average payrolls over the last decade. At it's simplest, you have do something better than everybody else.
    Can you be more specific? These are interesting examples, because these two organizations are reputed to be quite different in how they evaluate talent. What do they do better than everyone else?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I kind of agree with you. The Reds system has good depth but it's stars have graduated recently. Concerning the rankings, it's tough to critique without seeing the spread but he seems to be saying it's an average system which lumps them in with a big group of teams. Is that really too far out of line?
    It depends who you ask. For example if you ask me or JJ Cooper, we seem to think the Reds are in the top 12 teams in terms of farm systems, while other have them a little closer to the 20s than the 10s. So I guess its not completely out of line. With that said, since I do think their farm is in the 10-12 range, its a bit off for me. The main thing that swings them is the amount of guys that will be in AA/AAA this year who are legit prospects with major leaguer written on them in one way or another.

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Doug you bring up a pretty good point about the minor league system. But at the same time if you have very limited knowledge of the depth of the Reds farm system then why not take an aggregate of several well established rankings.
    Because really Baseball America is the only place who took a look at all systems. That crap that Keith Law put out was based on the teams top 3-5 prospects and completely ignored anything past that. Thats not a real good way to view a teams farm system. So that really just leaves BA, who even their own writers rank in the 10-20 range depending on who you are asking.

  15. #29
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I'm not sure either Homer or Lotzkar has legitimate #1 stuff. But I'm fairly sure, now, that Sulbaran's stuff is as good as both of theirs. The fastball has nasty movement down in the zone, and the curve is a late, sharp breaker. Haven't seen the change, but it's been given high marks. Add in the kid's intangibles, which appear to be excellent, and you've got a pitcher with a high ceiling, in my opinion.
    They flash it. Both have flashes two plus pitches in the past. Now obviously you need to be consistent with those things in order to obtain #1 type status, but I feel pretty comfortable at this point saying that those two are ahead of everyone else for now. While I like what I saw from Sulbaran the thing that was missing from that video was a radar gun. We will get that within the next week and maybe we can get a good idea of what we are dealing with. Until then, I am sticking with the previous two mentioned guys being ahead of him.

  16. #30
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    See Oakland and Minnesota, who have been consistently above average with consistently below average payrolls over the last decade. At it's simplest, you have do something better than everybody else.

    We quite clearly aren't going to find market inefficiencies through analytics, so that pretty much puts us squarely in the out-scout and out-develop box. I'm not convinced we're headed down that road. Jocketty's success in St. Louis was based on a fairly small number of moves happening more or less at the same time -- Carpenter, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen -- it wasn't until his 5th and 6th seasons as GM that the Cards had back to back winning seasons.
    The only real comparison I like is Minnesota. The A's seem either to be blowing it up or building for a run. They, Billy Beane, seem to be on a very extreme path that only works for Beane. I do like the Minnesota comparison because they have maintained success over a long period of time.

    But what really gets me is the STL market isn't all that different from Cincy. Jocketty proved that he could win in StL. Im not going to say its going to be as easy or players will pan out the same way but Jocketty won using the method that Cameron says won't work. It really strikes me of a huge bias against the way Jocketty goes about business.


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