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Thread: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

  1. #31
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    See Oakland and Minnesota, who have been consistently above average with consistently below average payrolls over the last decade. At it's simplest, you have do something better than everybody else.
    .
    It will be interesting to see if Oakland can have sustained success in their latest attempt to rebuild.

    They certainly had a nice year on 2006, but some of that success was the wise gamble of signing Frank Thomas. They did have a good core of farm products to help them.

    I have to partially discount the A's success in the Tejada/Giambi era due to all the steroids.I don't know if Oakland condoned/encouraged that or not.
    I always wonder, because Beane once made the quote about how after he met Dyskra, that he knew he didn't have "what it takes" to be a MLB player.
    Since Dykstra has been tied to steriods, I wonder if that's what he meant.

    Regardless, the A's had a pretty significant roid advantage in their glory years, whether Beane knew it or not.

    IMO, Beane has made some very questionable moves of late. I can only imagine the venom Walt would get now if the Reds had traded for Holliday and given up comparable talent (Huston Street and Greg Smith and outfield prospect Carlos González). He would be roasted, and deservably so, IMO.
    The A's are closer to contending than the Reds, but it's a puzzling move.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  3. #32
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    You mean, the A's had a significant roid advantage over the teams that had A-Rod and Rafael Palmeiro and Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, and Mo Vaughn and Paul Loduca and Kevin Brown?
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  4. #33
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    But what really gets me is the STL market isn't all that different from Cincy.
    Except they consistently draw better from a less dense area with fewer pro sports and college sports options, and pretty have much squashed the Reds numbers since "Tron" was considered groundbreaking.

    If there's a greased pig in the room that the Reds can't catch it's the ability the Cardinals have shown as far as drawing a steady stream of out of town loyalists that see going to the Reds as equal to going to an OSU football game.

  5. #34
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    On the first count, the direction is easily discernible; on the second count, he has no idea to what extent Jocketty uses his numbers guys (and there are numbers guys there)
    Jocketty was essentially fired because he was either unwilling or unable to work closely with the numbers guys in St Louis.

    Arguing it is unlikely that Jocketty is inclined to invest heavily in blending a sabermetric approach with scouting to inform decision making organization-wide and that places his organization at a competitive disadvantage against teams that do pursue such an approach isn't a stretch or illogical leap.

    Really how many people would consider this statement a fatal bias that invalidates an argument-all things being equal, a stats+scouting approach would generally trump a stats-alone or scouts-alone approach??????

    Now also consider that Jocketty went from a team with a payroll of $100M in '08 to one which had only $74M and the Reds don't have a ton of answers on the farm. Cameron basically argued that the Reds were lumped in the middle without a lot separating them from a team that might be ranked 15th. Little things like a tepid devotion to numbers crunching, payroll limitations, general lack of high ceiling prospects, and a 25-man roster caught in the grey area make their margin of error for consistently winning over the next several years perhaps smaller than whatever team will be 15 thru 20 in Cameron's mind.

    I'm struggling to see the obvious bias that would cause that argument to be dismissed out of hand.
    Last edited by jojo; 03-12-2009 at 08:37 PM.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The only real comparison I like is Minnesota. The A's seem either to be blowing it up or building for a run. They, Billy Beane, seem to be on a very extreme path that only works for Beane. I do like the Minnesota comparison because they have maintained success over a long period of time.
    SHOCKING!

    It seems like the side of the argument who disliked Cameron's analysis are ignoring it because they have personal disagreements with him. Because he is more statistically oriented and biased against scouting everything should be refuted? Should I ignore everything the Reds beat writers write now because they don't embrace sabermetrics?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  7. #36
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Jocketty was essentially fired because he was either unwilling or unable to work closely with the numbers guys in St Louis.
    I always read it as he was unwilling to split his job with someone as well. Especially in the wake of a WC.

  8. #37
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Me, too. He felt the owners were asking him to take a step back and balked. It wouldn't have mattered who the guy was.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  9. #38
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    I think you're absolutely right about it being a power struggle.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #39
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Arguing it is unlikely that Jocketty is inclined to invest heavily in blending a sabermetric approach with scouting to inform decision making organization-wide and that places his organization at a competitive disadvantage against teams that do pursue such an approach isn't a stretch or illogical leap.

    Really how many people would consider this statement a fatal bias that invalidates an argument-all things being equal, a stats+scouting approach would generally trump a stats-alone or scouts-alone approach??????
    The Reds have stats guys in the FO. The extent to which their work informs decision-making is unknown to all of us and to Dave Cameron.

    I tell you, the stats brotherhood is so insecure that when somebody well established in baseball appears to have slighted a brother, he is forever targeted as small-minded and retrograde. Yeah, we get it... Jocketty must have been the bad guy.

    Like I said, it's a fanboy's list, created by someone with no experience in baseball administration, scouting or player development, and no professional on-field experience. When it plays out like or unlike Cameron says it will, years down the road, then we can argue the merits of his insight. Means nothing now.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #40
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The Reds have stats guys in the FO. The extent to which their work informs decision-making is unknown to all of us and to Dave Cameron.
    Sure the Reds FO is shrouded in a certain mystery but lets not get carried away here-Castillini and Jocketty aren't secretly building DiamondView 2 on the Ohio...

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I tell you, the stats brotherhood is so insecure that when somebody well established in baseball appears to have slighted a brother, he is forever targeted as small-minded and retrograde. Yeah, we get it... Jocketty must have been the bad guy.
    I'm confused-which brotherhood is rising here?????

    Ironically, the author of the fangraph piece is a huge proponent of having the strongest scouting staff possible.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Like I said, it's a fanboy's list, created by someone with no experience in baseball administration, scouting or player development, and no professional on-field experience. When it plays out like or unlike Cameron says it will, years down the road, then we can argue the merits of his insight. Means nothing now.
    At what point would anyone not in the industry be qualified to have an opinion given that standard?

    Please, once again...lets attack the argument as discussion fodder rather than the author.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #41
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Steve Phillips was once inside the game. Therefore, his insight should be more valued than an outside member of the stats brotherhood like Dave Cameron...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #42
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Seems to me that whenever those well established in baseball are brought into question is when the true insecurities bare their fangs.

    No One has ever said that stat guys are better than scouts or vise verse.

    Only that it would be best to have both, a mixture of talented scouts and talented stat guys.


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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...r-leaderboards

    BTW, while you're over at Fangraphs, this is new, career leaderboards, and very welcome, IMO.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  15. #44
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think he summed up three months worth of Redszone archives with this:

    Originally Posted by Dave Cameron
    The question, though, is what direction do they want to go in? On their face, this team isn't good enough to contend in 2009, but they've got significant assets tied to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero, who are just better fits for a contender than a rebuilder. But if they trade those guys, then there isn't enough good talent around the young core to avoid a lot of losses. It's something of a dilemma that Jocketty and company will have to figure out.
    I have been saying this for years now.

  16. #45
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Originally Posted by Dave Cameron
    The question, though, is what direction do they want to go in? On their face, this team isn't good enough to contend in 2009, but they've got significant assets tied to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero, who are just better fits for a contender than a rebuilder. But if they trade those guys, then there isn't enough good talent around the young core to avoid a lot of losses. It's something of a dilemma that Jocketty and company will have to figure out.
    I have been saying this for years now.
    It is the Catch 22 that Reds find themselves in. Perhaps this year, some of this will clear itself up. If in fact Bailey and Owings are making the progress we hope - and that does remain to be seen, then one of the other two starters will be expendable. I can support moving one of them for other needed pieces. In the past, put very simply, it has felt folks wanted them moved simply for the sake of getting them off the books and getting something hopefully of value when we had nothing to replace them with. I think that situation may well change, as I said. That's a nice place to be in. The Cordero debate will continue I'm sure, but if the staff does what it looks like it can, perhaps that will end up not being solely a luxury, but fitting the need for a solid closer (salary notwithstanding). I just don't think the Cordero question will go away. It's the nature of the beast, as they say.
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