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Thread: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

  1. #76
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Thats the feeling I get around here. It kind of sucks the life about talking about Reds baseball. To me it seems that all the epic fail and T-virus talk leads me to believe people would rather see the Reds lose just to say "I told you so".
    Absolutely false.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #77
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    I'm not sure you can it negativity when the club's been a consistent loser for eight seasons. That's just the reality of it.

    Calling shenanigans on shenanigans isn't negativity. It's wearisome to do. I mean, the Reds could cut the shenanigans, but it's not indicative of a predisposition toward anything other than a distaste for nonsense.

    If you asked fans to draw up a list of what the Reds really needed this offseason in order to field a contender I doubt what the team actually did measures up. In fact, I'm reasonably sure that if you could go back in time to Nov. 1 and suggest the Reds do what they actually did this winter, the almost uniform response would be, "No thanks, that's an awful idea."
    It doesn't really matter to me what the majority's take is. It will all play out, and then we'll know how successful the offseason was. In my estimation, and you've heard me say this a lot recently, the team is on a good trajectory, with a solid young core that includes young pitching for the first time in a long time. Nothing disrupted that this offseason. They're probably not ready to make a lot of noise this year, but I think they might be next year.

    My in-laws are there (my wife hails from South Hadley). We don't tend to have a lot of free time when we're out there, but if I'll let you know if I'm out heading out there with some time to spare.
    Excellent! I've coached my kids' summer baseball teams v. South Hadley 2 of the last 3 summers (they pulled some true shenanigans at tournament time both years, by the way) and have seen plenty of their high school teams competing against my guys' teams over the years. Some good stories therein, which I will save for when/if we get a chance to meet.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #78
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I've never understood it either. If you criticize the FO's moves or any of the players you obviously are rooting for the team to fail...I don't get it.
    And remember, "negative" is apparently being defined squarely as a grade of C+.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #79
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If you asked fans to draw up a list of what the Reds really needed this offseason in order to field a contender I doubt what the team actually did measures up. In fact, I'm reasonably sure that if you could go back in time to Nov. 1 and suggest the Reds do what they actually did this winter, the almost uniform response would be, "No thanks, that's an awful idea."
    Then what would you have suggest they do? Realistically speaking. They weren't going to sign CC, Burnett, Manny, or Texiera. How do you take the team right now, and turn them into a contender over night? IMO the more prudent way was to continue to build from within. Im with you, the Reds are far from a finished product. But were they in position to move all in or were the best to slow play and continue to build.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    I think a lot of fans here do gravitate toward teams that fit their model. There are plenty of folks who seem to spend a lot of time following the A's, which is fine.
    Speaking solely for myself, there's no one model I prefer. I gravitate towards teams that score more runs than they allow. You can do that by scoring a boatload of runs or you can do it by preventing a boatload through superior pitching and defense. Better yet, you do both. With the exception of the 2005 offense, the Reds haven't excelled at much of anything over the last decade -- and they have yet to express that they understand why.

    When it comes to scoring runs, the formula is pretty simple. Get on base and advance around them. Do those two thing well and you'll score lots of runs. Fail to, and you won't. Sure, situational hitting and base stealing help, particularly in close games, but they are the icing on the cake. You can't build a cake on a foundation of icing.

    When it comes to preventing runs, the method is also straight forward. Get strikeouts, avoid walks, and keep the ball in the park and on the ground. On defense, get to as many balls as possible and don't screw up the easy plays.

    I understand the theoretical direction the Reds are headed, and frankly I like it. Find players who are solid offensively and excel defensively. Well rounded players who may not put up the greatest fantasy stats are still the greatest market inefficiency. It's the execution of the plan that frustrates me. Brandon Phillips sort of sums it up for me. On balance, he's a very nice player and I'm glad he's a Red. But in 70% of his plate appearances he's a replacement level hitter. The Reds seem completely blind to this.

    The Reds constantly waste opportunities to realize cheap production, by signing mediocre players which deprive ready young talent an opportunity. They waste money on low ceiling veterans who limit the team's upside potential. One thing both the Twins and A's do is realize that mediocre production is better realized from a 24 year old making $300k than a 36 year old making $3M. And that's to say nothing that they purposefully chose a manager who's greatest strength is making guys happy but who doesn't understand how runs are scored. Again, focus on the icing instead of the cake.

    My disappointment isn't about the Reds model. A team that scores 750 and allows 650 is playoff bound more often than not. My disappointment is entirely about their crappy execution of the model they've chosen and that they have yet to articulate that they understand the source of their failures. I guess when you're a crappy cake-maker and don't understand why your cakes keep tasting like crap, you like to focus on the things you can control and put together the best icing you can.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-13-2009 at 02:50 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #81
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It doesn't really matter to me what the majority's take is.
    My take is it's human nature to figure the majority opinion is always lined up on the other side.

    I do recall back before 2005 RFS put up a number of polls asking what people thought about the team's moves that winter and the response was overwhelmingly positive. Also, when gonelong posts his annual W-L prediction thread, the responses tend to lean toward a good season (for instance I don't think if you took the average prediction from that poll that its ever failed to work to more wins than the club has actually posted).

    This time around we may be looking at more skepticism, but I don't know that the board has hit a tipping point yet.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #82
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Really? You don't see a much improved farm system? You don't see a farm system that just produced the #1 prospect in all of baseball? You don't see the best rotation the Reds have had in years?
    The names change, but the story remains the same.

    Years ago it was excitement because Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn were with the team. Now it's excitement because Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are with the team.

    Scott Williamson lit the world on fire. Lance Davis, Brian Reith, Chris Reitsma and Jose Acevedo were supposed to be the "young gun" future of the rotation.

    At some point, the story needs to have a new ending. Until that happens, I remain openly skeptical of things.
    Championships Matter.
    24 Years and Counting...

  9. #83
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Then what would you have suggest they do? Realistically speaking. They weren't going to sign CC, Burnett, Manny, or Texiera. How do you take the team right now, and turn them into a contender over night? IMO the more prudent way was to continue to build from within. Im with you, the Reds are far from a finished product. But were they in position to move all in or were the best to slow play and continue to build.
    I actually posted what I'd do in the offseason (don't feel like looking it up, but it's out there). Was it realistic? Well, no, but that's because no outside scenario is ever realistic. We don't run the club and therefore it's never realistic to expect the club to do what we'd have it do.

    In a general sense, I'd have prioritized SS and C. The offense needed more OB and speed. The club needed better overall defense. And I'd have been after some young LHPs with unrealized upside.

    If the club is going to rebuild, then I'd do it in earnest and not slap a meaningless "build from within" label on it. Every club drafts and signs kids. If the plan is to go with a youth movement, then I'd move hard in that direction and augment what the Reds have in the system with a pile of kids acquired via trade.

    What I wouldn't do is repeat the 21st century gameplan of adding filler around a bad team while waiting for a youth cavalry that never arrives. Either make the frontline troops better or build a better cavalry.
    Last edited by M2; 03-13-2009 at 03:08 PM.
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  10. #84
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me it seems that all the epic fail and T-virus talk leads me to believe people would rather see the Reds lose just to say "I told you so".
    And you would be totally wrong.

    While I view the chances of the Reds having a successful season as about the same as me dating Selma Hayek this weekend I would be pleased as punch if they somehow struck gold and were in the thick of a race (that is, they are actually a competitive team, not hanging around because the Cubs refused to seal the deal). That would be great, if it actually came to pass.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 03-13-2009 at 04:49 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  11. #85
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Speaking solely for myself, there's no one model I prefer. I gravitate towards teams that score more runs than they allow. You can do that by scoring a boatload of runs or you can do it by preventing a boatload through superior pitching and defense. Better yet, you do both. With the exception of the 2005 offense, the Reds haven't excelled at much of anything over the last decade -- and they have yet to express that they understand why.

    When it comes to scoring runs, the formula is pretty simple. Get on base and advance around them. Do those two thing well and you'll score lots of runs. Fail to, and you won't. Sure, situational hitting and base stealing help, particularly in close games, but they are the icing on the cake. You can't build a cake on a foundation of icing.

    When it comes to preventing runs, the method is also straight forward. Get strikeouts, avoid walks, and keep the ball in the park and on the ground. On defense, get to as many balls as possible and don't screw up the easy plays.

    I understand the theoretical direction the Reds are headed, and frankly I like it. Find players who are solid offensively and excel defensively. Well rounded players who may not put up the greatest fantasy stats are still the greatest market inefficiency. It's the execution of the plan that frustrates me. Brandon Phillips sort of sums it up for me. On balance, he's a very nice player and I'm glad he's a Red. But in 70% of his plate appearances he's a replacement level hitter. The Reds seem completely blind to this.

    The Reds constantly waste opportunities to realize cheap production, by signing mediocre players which deprive ready young talent an opportunity. They waste money on low ceiling veterans who limit the team's upside potential. One thing both the Twins and A's do is realize that mediocre production is better realized from a 24 year old making $300k than a 36 year old making $3M. And that's to say nothing that they purposefully chose a manager who's greatest strength is making guys happy but who doesn't understand how runs are scored. Again, focus on the icing instead of the cake.

    My disappointment isn't about the Reds model. A team that scores 750 and allows 650 is playoff bound more often than not. My disappointment is entirely about their crappy execution of the model they've chosen and that they have yet to articulate that they understand the source of their failures. I guess when you're a crappy cake-maker and don't understand why your cakes keep tasting like crap, you like to focus on the things you can control and put together the best icing you can.
    I agree with most of what you said Rick. There is going to be no one who is going to argue that you want to build your team around the things you mentioned. Getting on base, having the power to drive runners in, having pitchers who keep the ball down in GABP are all what anyone would look for. The problem is taking a theoretical model and plugging in actual ball players. Every player is going to have his pluses and minuses. Its just the reality of the situation.

    Taveras has been the much maligned player this off season. He by no means is the answer in CF and the lead off role as a Red. IMO he is a stop gap that Jocketty felt necessary. While Dickerson had a heck of a year last year counting on him to repeat would have been foolish. They also have a CF down in AAA that has shown the ability to get on the base, steal bases, and play GG defense. He just isn't ready yet. Teams like the Marlins would have handed him the job because of his cheap price tag. Jocketty went and got the stop gap. It would have been nice to see Taveras on only a one year contract but that didn't happen for whatever reason.

    Phillips flaw is his obp challenge. But when you consider him as a ball player you have to take every thing into consideration. Sure he struggles mighty against right handed pitching, but his defense is what keeps him in the lineup day in day out. When you take into his offensive game, defensive game, and age there are very few 2b in the game I would take over Phillips. His contract will get expensive but Billy Beane also has the bugaboo contract of Chavez. It looked good at the time but looks like an albatross now.

    The biggest key with Jocketty is to give him time. Its unfortunate because the Reds are closer than they have been in a decade. IMO the model is there, I really think there are a few key pieces that Jocketty needs to add but how he does that will be the question.

  12. #86
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Taveras has been the much maligned player this off season. He by no means is the answer in CF and the lead off role as a Red. IMO he is a stop gap that Jocketty felt necessary. While Dickerson had a heck of a year last year counting on him to repeat would have been foolish. They also have a CF down in AAA that has shown the ability to get on the base, steal bases, and play GG defense. He just isn't ready yet. Teams like the Marlins would have handed him the job because of his cheap price tag. Jocketty went and got the stop gap. It would have been nice to see Taveras on only a one year contract but that didn't happen for whatever reason.
    I'm sorry but what exactly have the Reds done the past decade or so that justifies Reds fans looking down their noses at the Marlins? God forbid the Reds FO ever makes the decision to just use the cheap young unproven player instead of flushing millions in small chunks at all the stop gaps over the past few years.

    It's been a constant attempt to try and "win now" (which by Reds standards means attempt to get to .500) while they rebuild for the past 3 GM's. I've said it for years and its still true....you can't do both. At some point you ave to take your lumps, trade some veteran pieces and swear off the stop gaps. Go out and take whatever the kids can give you, stockpile the farm and look forward to better days.

    Instead the reds do half measures and people try and justify it by saying attendance would suffer if they were too bad of a team. I couldn't disagree more. Put some money into a good PR campaign, be upfront and tell them we are rebuilding. Do they really think we fans are so dumb as to care what number below .500 they end up at every year? If there is true hope for the future it doesn't matter. Its tough to have true hope for the future with Willy T being the latest in a long line of similar moves.

    A team like the Marlins? Please. We should be so lucky.

  13. #87
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    The Marlins are an interesting case. Cody Ross is a better CF than Taveras. Dan Uggla has proven quite the hitter. Hanley Ramirez was acquired by trading away Josh Beckett. Ricky Nolasco, acquired for Juan Pierre, outperformed Volquez last year and most people around here probably haven't heard of him. The Marlins, realizing that they can't possibly buy enough production to win, maximize their exposure to upside potential and don't bother with constant half-hearted attempts by paying millions to mediocre free agents.

    The Reds have made it a practice to minimize variability through their use of "proven veterans". The practice is fine when you're trying to solidify a roster capable of winning 90 games. But when you have a 75 win roster, you should be creating every opportunity to possible to find diamonds in the rough -- not hoping and praying for a bunch of career years from guys with an established level of performance that won't put you in the playoffs. The Reds are more concerned about not losing 60 than they are winning 90. Cameron has it right. The Reds don't realize that they need to get off the treadmill.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-13-2009 at 06:18 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #88
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    I'm sorry but what exactly have the Reds done the past decade or so that justifies Reds fans looking down their noses at the Marlins? God forbid the Reds FO ever makes the decision to just use the cheap young unproven player instead of flushing millions in small chunks at all the stop gaps over the past few years.

    It's been a constant attempt to try and "win now" (which by Reds standards means attempt to get to .500) while they rebuild for the past 3 GM's. I've said it for years and its still true....you can't do both. At some point you ave to take your lumps, trade some veteran pieces and swear off the stop gaps. Go out and take whatever the kids can give you, stockpile the farm and look forward to better days.

    Instead the reds do half measures and people try and justify it by saying attendance would suffer if they were too bad of a team. I couldn't disagree more. Put some money into a good PR campaign, be upfront and tell them we are rebuilding. Do they really think we fans are so dumb as to care what number below .500 they end up at every year? If there is true hope for the future it doesn't matter. Its tough to have true hope for the future with Willy T being the latest in a long line of similar moves.

    A team like the Marlins? Please. We should be so lucky.
    Great post.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  15. #89
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    I'm sorry but what exactly have the Reds done the past decade or so that justifies Reds fans looking down their noses at the Marlins? God forbid the Reds FO ever makes the decision to just use the cheap young unproven player instead of flushing millions in small chunks at all the stop gaps over the past few years.

    It's been a constant attempt to try and "win now" (which by Reds standards means attempt to get to .500) while they rebuild for the past 3 GM's. I've said it for years and its still true....you can't do both. At some point you ave to take your lumps, trade some veteran pieces and swear off the stop gaps. Go out and take whatever the kids can give you, stockpile the farm and look forward to better days.

    Instead the reds do half measures and people try and justify it by saying attendance would suffer if they were too bad of a team. I couldn't disagree more. Put some money into a good PR campaign, be upfront and tell them we are rebuilding. Do they really think we fans are so dumb as to care what number below .500 they end up at every year? If there is true hope for the future it doesn't matter. Its tough to have true hope for the future with Willy T being the latest in a long line of similar moves.

    A team like the Marlins? Please. We should be so lucky.
    Seriously. Totally seriously.

  16. #90
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Fan Graph's baseball has Reds as 24th best organization

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    You mean, the A's had a significant roid advantage over the teams that had A-Rod and Rafael Palmeiro and Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, and Mo Vaughn and Paul Loduca and Kevin Brown?
    The Bonds team that had Santiago resurrected by roids had a pretty good advantage too.

    The A's had multiple accused roiders.

    The Texas offense with IRod, Palemero, etc also had a huge advantage, they just didn't have the pitching to go with it.

    Who knows, maybe the A's players knew how to better exploit it. Meanwhile, teams like the Reds and Braves didn't seem to have many roiders, or if they did, they certainly didn't benefit from it. We didn't have a Jay Bell come out of nowhere and hit 40 HR, for instance.

    So, yes, the widespread steroid use on the A's was a huge advantage over the Reds.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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