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Thread: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Looks like Dunn is "worth" around 15 runs more than Taveras, if the calculations and projections are correct. Is that worth the millions that Dunn would have cost more than Taveras? How about when you consider where those millions can be used to help in other areas?
    If we go with 1 win = $5M then yep, it would have been worth it. And they both got two year deals!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    If we go with 1 win = $5M then yep, it would have been worth it. And they both got two year deals!
    If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.

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    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Who's the better defensive centerfielder in YOUR mind, Chris Dickerson or Willy Taveras?
    I only saw Dickerson play a handful of times last year, so I can't have any kind of informed idea on this. Here's my data:

    CHONE's defensive ratings.

    Taveras = +3 runs/150 g in CF
    Dickerson = -5 runs/150 g in CF

    Both would be plus in a corner outfield slot.

    Unfortunately, in Dickerson's case, we have very minimal data here. His fielding numbers have a very slow sample size, so they're heavily regressed to the mean. They would be regressed to the Fan's Scouting Report--my favorite source of info for players with a season or less in MLB on the books--but as a late-season addition he wasn't included.

    So, if you want to argue he's a plus fielder based on your observations last season, I won't argue and I'll hope you're right.
    -j

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    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.
    I think the point was that this cost difference is fair market value for Dunn's extra production. You'd have to beat fair market value to do better, and that's hard (though of course not impossible) to do.
    -j

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If that 1.5 wins put them in the race, then sure. But if it just drove them from 73 to 74 wins, then I'd rather use it elsewhere.
    Do you think this is a 73 win club? If that is your baseline then I agree with you. I think a Reds team with Adam Dunn and a better shortstop could be in the Wild Card hunt...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Assume Bruce can be roughly a 2.5 win OFer this year (which is what he's basically projected to be assuming he's a neutral defender). It would be pretty tough for the rest of the outfield not to be better than Jr+Corey circa '08.

    The improvement is likely to come from the defense. Taveras is a push over Patterson/Hairston. So the gains will be on the corners vs Jr and Dunn from last year. Of course that is if Gomes isn't getting significant defensive innings as a platoon partner.

    Given the production the Reds actually got last season, the Reds in reality aren't looking at a 4 win upgrade in their outfield over last season unless something truly extraordinary happens (Lord Bruce is anointed, cough, cough).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Do you think this is a 73 win club? If that is your baseline then I agree with you. I think a Reds team with Adam Dunn and a better shortstop could be in the Wild Card hunt...
    Is that with Dickerson or Taveras in CF? Or does it matter?

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It would be pretty tough for the rest of the outfield not to be better than Jr+Corey circa '08.
    I think that is an important distinction. The difference is because of Jr+Corey and not Dunn (well, his defense is why it won't be THAT difficult to replace him, but at least he was an above-average player)...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Is that with Dickerson or Taveras in CF? Or does it matter?
    I'd split the playing time until I knew what I had in Dickerson...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    They aren't?

    Love to see his projections for a Dunn-Dickerson-Bruce OF.
    Are we allowed to mention that name around these parts anymore?

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Looks like Dunn is "worth" around 15 runs more than Taveras, if the calculations and projections are correct. Is that worth the millions that Dunn would have cost more than Taveras? How about when you consider where those millions can be used to help in other areas?
    Would you rather spend $20 Million over 2 years for a known, highly productive commodity, or $6 Million over that same 2 years for a crap shoot (in every sense of the word/phrase)?

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    They aren't?

    Love to see his projections for a Dunn-Dickerson-Bruce OF.
    You have all 3 on your fantasy team?

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Does anyone have access to the Reds' monthly DER numbers for 2008? I am curious as to whether the Reds defensive efficiency improved after Dunn and Griffey departed.

  15. #29
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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Code:
    Month	 DER
    April	0.689
    May	0.660
    June	0.690
    July	0.657
    August	0.660
    Sept	0.680
    Overall: .673
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: From Jinaz: Is the 2009 Reds opening day outfield worse than last year's?

    Three things -

    1. What was the offensive measurement used for 2008 and projection system for 2009? Dunn's about 8-10 runs low if you're using VORP or WARP.

    2. Since Taveras rated below average in other defensive measurements (e.g. -6 in UZR/150), I'd be reluctant to rate him as a plus defender. Fielding Bible also rates Patterson as one of the best defensive CFs of the past three seasons.

    3. The larger story here is the OF still projects as below average. When you turn over the entire unit, the end result shouldn't be that it's still kind of bad.
    Last edited by M2; 03-17-2009 at 07:12 PM.
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