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Thread: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

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    Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    per mlbtraderumours and Tim Dierkes:

    "Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds
    By Tim Dierkes [March 17 at 11:21am CST]
    Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Reds. Here's what we wrote about them on September 26th. Changes for 2009:

    Additions: Ramon Hernandez, Willy Taveras, Arthur Rhodes, Jonny Gomes, Aaron Fultz, Humberto Cota, Daryle Ward, Jacque Jones, Laynce Nix, Mike Lincoln (re-signed), Jerry Hairston Jr. (re-signed), David Weathers (accepted arb). Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar, Micah Owings

    Subtractions: Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Gary Majewski, Matt Belisle, Ryan Freel, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, David Ross, Javier Valentin, Jolbert Cabrera. Midseason: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Todd Coffey

    In September I mentioned the Reds as a sleeper candidate for '09, given their rotation depth. Last year's front four are returning. Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto combined for a 4.38 ERA in 754.3 innings. Even with regression from Volquez, I expect them to maintain that performance level. Owings and Homer Bailey are strong fifth starter options. The bar is low - Reds' fifth starters combined for a 7.47 ERA in 140 innings last year.

    The bullpen was decent last year, and the loss of relief innings leader Affeldt was treated with the Rhodes signing. Subtract out bad performances from Majewski and Coffey and the pen shouldn't be worse.

    Defensively the Reds ranked dead last in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II. The worst culprits: third base (Edwin Encarnacion), shortstop (Jeff Keppinger, Hairston), and left field (mainly Dunn). Reports on shortstop Alex Gonzalez have been positive, and the subtraction of Dunn will help in left field. Last September I pushed for Walt Jocketty to make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre, but Encarnacion will stay at the hot corner for '09. Taveras has the tools to play a great center field at help the corner outfielders.

    The Reds scored 4.35 runs per game in '08, 12th in the NL. How will they fare in the post-Dunn/Griffey era? Keep in mind that it's also the post-Patterson/Bako era, and the Gomes/Chris Dickerson platoon should be effective. CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool call for 4.42 runs per game which unfortunately still would've ranked 12th last year. This team still falls short offensively, even with strong years from the team's young sluggers.

    Even if I generously put the Reds at 750 runs allowed, they project to win 77 games. It's difficult to see this team cracking .500 as it's presently constructed.

    Bottom line: The Reds' rotation looks strong, but Jocketty failed to add the needed offense."

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    My comment:


    Last year the Reds allowed 800 runs. 750 runs scored and 77 wins would equate to ~790 runs allowed.

    You stated that you recognize that both the pitch and defense have improved. Yet you have them down for only a 10 run improvement? That doesn't seem to make sense.

    I too would be happy with 750 RS, but I think if you're going to be optimistic, you could reasonably project a run allowed total in that ballpark as well.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    His bottom line is sadly correct.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    My comment:
    He states he has them for 750 runs allowed, not scored. He has them for a 50 run improvement, not 10.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    He states he has them for 750 runs allowed, not scored. He has them for a 50 run improvement, not 10.
    oops...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    So he's projecting 750 runs allowed and about 716 runs scored, is that correct?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    So he's projecting 750 runs allowed and about 716 runs scored, is that correct?
    Yep. That actually strikes me as completely reasonable. But there is a fair bit of upside potential in those offensive figures given the production we got from CF, SS, and C last year. There are a lot of ifs involved, but this could be 775 run offense.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    So he's projecting 750 runs allowed and about 716 runs scored, is that correct?

    Thats how I read it.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yep. That actually strikes me as completely reasonable. But there is a fair bit of upside potential in those offensive figures given the production we got from CF, SS, and C last year. There are a lot of ifs involved, but this could be 775 run offense.
    How far north of 750 can the RA go if AG can't stay healthy? Thats a pretty high percentage "what if" that can go against us.

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    Re: Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds per Tim Dierkes

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    How far north of 750 can the RA go if AG can't stay healthy? Thats a pretty high percentage "what if" that can go against us.
    The difference between a healthy Gonzalez and Hairston is probably on the order of 15-20 runs, 20-25 between Gonzalez and Keppinger. Offensively the differences aren't likely to be very large.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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