The pitching hasn't been that great lately. I would hold back my optimism if I were you.
The pitching hasn't been that great lately. I would hold back my optimism if I were you.
I love the optimism, I really do. But the one thing that wasnt accounted for was injury. Yes, those numbers COULD happen. But it doesnt account for the inevitable injury bug that rears its head each year.
I think the wins number this year, if everything goes as good as possible is in the 85-90 range. More realistically, we are looking at low 80s.
That said, this is the time of year for optimism, so I love the post!!
+1.Originally Posted by wojo1025
He'll probably never win 16 again.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
I hope your right but Vegas says 78.5 wins. There's a lot of nice casinos in Vegas. Those didn't get there from them being wrong.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
There is not enough power in the lineup to get 85 wins unless EE takes a gian leap forward to .280/.370/.480. I say EE because he's the only thing even capable of becoming a middle of the order right handed hitter. Speed is great but to borrow an overused cliche you can't steal first.
I think it's nice to have a conversation about how the Reds could be this year's Rays, that's what spring is for. I'd be content though if the team just showed a solid step forward and the 25 they break with and the other 8-10 that will probably add value along the way should be good enough to do just that. They might get lucky, and that would be great, but if this team can turn 83-85 wins, I'd be very happy and excited about 2010.
Oh, yes. I've won many over/under season win totals from them. You've just got to do it when you you know more about the team than they do. This is one of those cases. It doesn't come up very often. Last year, I predicted within 2 games (as most did on this board) of the exact win total of the REDS. There weren't the intangibles that there are this year. And, if anything is going to allow a team to over-achieve, it's strong pitching and strong defense. This team has strong pitching and good defense. Last year they had average pitching and poor defense. 6 of the 8 defensive positions will improve this season, and the 2 that won't are at a gold-glove or near gold-glove level already, Centerfield and Second Base.
That number is also going to rise from the 78.5, if it hasn't already. I have to assume that earlier in the year it was even less than the 78.5. Not too many betters are taking the under on that bet.
Ask Bailey, Owings, Thompson, Cueto, Harang and Arroyo if they would individually be dissapointed if they "only" won as many games as projected. I think you would get a "Yes" from each of them.
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins
Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-19-2009 at 04:34 PM.
I would hope each would be disappointed if they didn't win 20+. I'd hate for a pitcher in our rotation to be anything LESS than disappointed if they only won 6 or 7 games
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins
I think those are good predictions. I think Volquez is right about there, and that is about how many Arroyo seems to end up winning every year. The only changes could be if either Owings or Bailey have awesome seasons and man that 5th spot the entire year.. they could get more. Harange at 13 wins is probably pretty accurate going by his overall track record but he could be either higher or lower. The biggest question mark for wins IMO is Cueto. His stuff is nasty. He didn't do all that good last year, but I hear all the time on the radio that his stuff is better than Volquez's. If he matures some this year and can get himself a little more under control I can definitely see him having the season that Volquez did last year. I think him and Volquez both have the potential if not this year then sometime soon to win 20 games.
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins
That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).
But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:
April/May.........19 Wins.
June/July.........23 Wins.
Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
Oct..................1 Win.
So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:
Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................4 Wins
Arroyo........................4 Wins
Cueto.........................3 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................1 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins
Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)
Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-19-2009 at 04:57 PM.
This really is not the best way to project a teams win total, since individual pitchers don't have that much control over the games that they win.
However, I think this does show how valuable starting pitching is. If you have five strong arms in the rotation, and they perform to their ability, it makes a winning season much easier. The offense still matters, just not as much.
Yeah, I know....not really trying to show the best way to figure it out....just having fun with the strength of the team. I'm really impressed at how good it is. I'm turning 50 in June and this is the best starting pitching I've seen on a REDS team for the 40 years that I've followed them closely. We've never been able to develop our own pitching, and I still don't know if we can, but the trades that brought Thompson, Volquez, Arroyo, and Harang here, combined with the two home-grown players in Cueto and Bailey, have made it pretty cool to be a REDS' fan again. I'm OK with Jockety, but I sure wish we still had Krivsky.
If Hal McCoy is right, and Harang's stuff looks bad, I dont think we can slate him for a guaranteed 15 wins at all.
I'm sorry but I don't see Harang getting 15 wins this year. He still just doesn't look right. And how can you give so many wins to guys that aren't even on the roster.
I think the numbers you put up there will be possible to obtain but they do not represent a conservative estimate.
Reds 2010 NL Central Champs
Has anyone heard what speed Harang is throwing so far ?
I remember the game at Chicago last year where he didnt get much over 88 the entire game.
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