Great to see that Dusty has his regular season lineup out there today against the Pirates with the two guys worst at getting on base, Taveras and Gonzalez, batting 1-2. I, for one, will be surprised if this lineup produces 80 wins. The pitching should be better, but not good enough to overcome a below average group of hitters with a lineup that has its worst hitters at the top of the order.
Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.
There are about two dozen question marks that are bigger on this team than whether or not EE has an off year.
I'll give you my view of the Reds. I've been following them since the 1940's and this is my take from what I've seen so far in ST.
I know it's ST but Harang and Arroyo haven't shown me anything to think they'll win 10-15 games this year. Cordero is getting lit up like a high school kid. I think his ERA is around 18.00.
Tavaras hasn't shown me anything except how to not get on base and Keppinger was hitting below the Mendoza line the last I heard.
I'm not sure that Gonzales is healthy enough to play on an every day basis and it seems the alternative is Keppinger.
Add in Dusty, who I think is a very poor manager, and the Reds will be lucky to win 80 games this year...75 is more likely.
As I said before, it's ST but I haven't seen anything to make me optimistic for the coming season. I hope I'm wrong as I love the Reds but I've seen optimism in ST before and then watched the team fall on it's face during the season.
Just my take and I'm sure the homers will jump on me but that's the way I see it.
The losing in ST doesnt bother me but I would rather see wins even if regs arent in games.
As far as hitting, yes it seems as of now, that it is a concern but we all have seen how things can change drastically come opening day (for the better and worse)
Also Dusty has been doing a few little things that he probably wouldnt do when season starts such as starting Dickerson vs Lefties and Gomes vs Righties.
Bruce has been hitting the ball better recently and his last two starts have been facing lefties.
Change the word "Win" to "Lose" and I'll agree with you...
I don't know if I'd use pitcher wins as a variable, but if I were to assume those wins, you might think the ERA's of these guys would have to be:
Then, they might get those win totals. Our offense is going to average about 4.3 runs a game at best, with a lot of 1 and 2 run games, so in order to keep us in those games our pitchers are going to have to be near the top in the NL in order to get us close to .500
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
Last edited by CesarGeronimo; 03-23-2009 at 12:24 AM.