Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234
Results 46 to 55 of 55

Thread: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 games...

  1. #46
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,228

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    This is from MLBTR:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/0...shortages.html

    The theme of Peter Gammons' latest blog post: almost every team needs pitching. One GM told Gammons, "Other than the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Marlins and Twins, everyone is looking for pitching, at least affordable pitching." Most of the clubs with possible surpluses are thought to be hoarding arms.
    I think this emphasis Kingspoint's point. When was the last time the Reds were included with the Red Sox and Yankees in any positive list of teams? And especially about pitching? Who knows how many games the Reds will win this year, but it is hard not to be impressed with the pitching staff.

    BTW, Gammons also says in his blog that the Brewers might have to use Todd Coffey as there closer for part of this year. Great news for him, but not a good sign for the Brewers.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,318

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote Originally Posted by JBChance View Post
    How do you know or project how many career AB's EdE will have? Just curious.
    Very easy. (Over 1000 hours of reading Bill James' Annuals and books and research like it has made it easier, though. If you can ever find any of the rare copies of his first 4 Annuals, they are some of the best reading you'll ever do, if you absolutely love baseball.) Based upon his age, how many at-bats he has up to this point, what his OPS' have been each season. He's just now entering his prime years for the next 3-4 seasons, and then he'll have a 3-4 season downswing, and then one more good year that matches his 3-4 year peak season, and then 1 to 1-1/2 bad seasons, and then he'll be gone. So, take his at-bats he has up to now and multiply it by about 3.5, and that will be approximately his total career at-bats.

    This pattern has repeated itself for over 100 years with over 10,000 players. The only thing that's changed it are those players that have used steroids.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-27-2009 at 07:27 PM.

  4. #48
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,318

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    This is from MLBTR:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/0...shortages.html



    I think this emphasis Kingspoint's point. When was the last time the Reds were included with the Red Sox and Yankees in any positive list of teams? And especially about pitching? Who knows how many games the Reds will win this year, but it is hard not to be impressed with the pitching staff.

    BTW, Gammons also says in his blog that the Brewers might have to use Todd Coffey as there closer for part of this year. Great news for him, but not a good sign for the Brewers.
    Don't forget, I'm just having fun with the "Wins" category. In no way shape or form are Wins predictable in any one season from a pitcher's potential performance.

    I also saw that Coffey has had an outstanding Spring. Last time I looked he had a 15/3 K/BB ratio, or something very close to that.

  5. #49
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,318

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Volquez....................15 Wins
    Harang.....................13 Wins
    Arroyo......................12 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................6 Wins
    Bailey.........................4 Wins
    Thompson...................5 Wins


    That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

    But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

    April/May.........19 Wins.
    June/July.........23 Wins.
    Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
    Oct..................1 Win.

    So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

    Volquez......................4 Wins
    Harang.......................4 Wins
    Arroyo........................4 Wins
    Cueto.........................3 Wins
    Owings.......................3 Wins
    Bailey.........................1 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)

    I think we're on track for this to happen by the end of May. We played 21 games in April. We'll play 28 games in May (14H, 14R).

    So far, through those 21 games (3/7th's of the Apr/May games):

    Volquez......................3 Wins
    Harang.......................2 Wins
    Arroyo........................3 Wins
    Cueto.........................1 Wins
    Owings.......................1 Wins
    Bailey.........................0 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Where we haven't done well is Wins by the Relievers. We only have 1 Win from our Relievers. Masset has it.

    With some improved hitting (Rosales, Phillips), then we can start to get some more wins by our Relievers, too.

    I see us going 17-11 or 18-10 in May.

  6. #50
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    345

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    I see a 90 win team on the field for most games, and then a 74 win team on others. I wish they would balance it out better. As long as we beat the Cards a few times, I think we will be fine.

  7. #51
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    columbus,ohio
    Posts
    2,202

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Here's why.....

    I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

    Volquez....................17 Wins
    Harang.....................16 Wins
    Arroyo......................13 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................8 Wins
    Bailey.........................5 Wins

    That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

    Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
    Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
    Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
    Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
    David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
    Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
    Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
    Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
    Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
    Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
    Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
    Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

    That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

    But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

    If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

    Volquez....................15 Wins
    Harang.....................13 Wins
    Arroyo......................12 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................6 Wins
    Bailey.........................4 Wins
    Thompson...................5 Wins

    But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

    We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

    They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)

    With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.
    I certainly don't mind someone saying that I told you so.Just hope your still bringing back the thread in September to do so.

  8. #52
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,318

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote: Originally Posted by Kingspoint

    Volquez....................15 Wins
    Harang.....................13 Wins
    Arroyo......................12 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................6 Wins
    Bailey.........................4 Wins
    Thompson...................5 Wins


    That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

    But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

    April/May.........19 Wins.
    June/July.........23 Wins.
    Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
    Oct..................1 Win.

    So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

    Volquez......................4 Wins
    Harang.......................4 Wins
    Arroyo........................4 Wins
    Cueto.........................3 Wins
    Owings.......................3 Wins
    Bailey.........................1 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)



    Quote from the end of April by Kingspoint:

    I think we're on track for this to happen by the end of May. We played 21 games in April. We'll play 28 games in May (14H, 14R).

    So far, through those 21 games (3/7th's of the Apr/May games):

    Volquez......................3 Wins
    Harang.......................2 Wins
    Arroyo........................3 Wins
    Cueto.........................1 Wins
    Owings.......................1 Wins
    Bailey.........................0 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Where we haven't done well is Wins by the Relievers. We only have 1 Win from our Relievers. Masset has it.

    With some improved hitting (Rosales, Phillips), then we can start to get some more wins by our Relievers, too.

    I see us going 17-11 or 18-10 in May.


    Now, halfway through May (9-4 so far) here's where the win totals from the starting pitchers have come from:

    Volquez......................4 Wins
    Harang.......................3 Wins
    Arroyo........................5 Wins
    Cueto.........................4 Wins
    Owings.......................3 Wins
    Bailey.........................0 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    What I've completely overestimated is our Win totals from our Relievers. Through May 15th our Relievers have only 1 Win. (They have 3 losses, 2 from Cordero and 1 from Herrera.) The fact that not a single RED has been credited with a "Blown Save" so far this year has something to do with it. Our bullpen has won every game they've been given a lead in, while our bullpen has only won 1 game that they've come into while behind or tied.

    Cueto and Arroyo have already exceded their expected win totals for Apr/May, while Volquez and Owings have already matched their expected Win totals for Apr/May. Harang goes tonight and he's only 1 win behind his expected win total for Apr/May. I had 1 Win for Bailey by the end of May, and it looks like he won't be getting that.

    To get to those 85 Wins, I had 22 Wins for our Relievers over the season, which breaks down to about 6 Wins by the end of Apr/May, and 4 Wins each of the other months. So, I'm 5 Wins short so far in Apr/May for our Relievers.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 05-15-2009 at 05:59 PM.

  9. #53
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    500

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Here's to you being wrong...










    ...because the Reds end up winning 100 games.

  10. #54
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,318

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Here's why.....

    I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

    Volquez....................17 Wins
    Harang.....................16 Wins
    Arroyo......................13 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................8 Wins
    Bailey.........................5 Wins

    That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

    Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
    Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
    Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
    Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
    David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
    Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
    Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
    Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
    Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
    Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
    Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
    Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

    That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

    But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

    If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

    Volquez....................15 Wins
    Harang.....................13 Wins
    Arroyo......................12 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................6 Wins
    Bailey.........................4 Wins
    Thompson...................5 Wins

    But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

    We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

    They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.

    Volquez....................15 Wins
    Harang.....................13 Wins
    Arroyo......................12 Wins
    Cueto.......................12 Wins
    Owings.......................6 Wins
    Bailey.........................4 Wins
    Thompson...................5 Wins


    That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

    But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

    April/May.........19 Wins.
    June/July.........23 Wins.
    Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
    Oct..................1 Win.

    So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

    Volquez......................4 Wins
    Harang.......................4 Wins
    Arroyo........................4 Wins
    Cueto.........................3 Wins
    Owings.......................3 Wins
    Bailey.........................1 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins
    (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)
    So, let's see how those starters totals for April/May looked, and see if the team is on track for what I predicted at the beginning of the season just basing it on this excellent pitching staff that we have.

    Results for Apr/May
    Volquez......................4 Wins
    Harang.......................5 Wins
    Arroyo........................7 Wins
    Cueto.........................4 Wins
    Owings.......................3 Wins
    Bailey.........................0 Wins
    Thompson...................0 Wins

    Starter Totals for Apr/May........23 Wins!!! That's 4 over projection for Apr/May. This starting staff is even better than was projected, or better than my higher than most expectations had them projected.

    ....and the rest of the team....

    Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
    Daryl Thompson (R).......0 Wins
    Francisco Cordero (R)....0 Wins
    Jared Burton (R)...........0 Wins
    David Weathers (R).......0 Wins
    Arthur Rhodes (L).........0 Wins
    Bill Bray (L)..................0 Wins
    Mike Lincoln (R)............0 Wins
    Ramon Ramirez (R)........0 Wins
    Josh Roenicke (R).........0 Wins
    Aaron Fultz (L).............0 Wins
    Daniel Herrera (L)..........0 Wins

    ....and Carlos Fisher.......1 Win.

    Bill Bray and Daryl Thompson are lost for the season.

    It looks like Matt Maloney might get some more chances throughout the course of the season either as a starter or reliever.

    We've been way short in winning games in the 7th inning on and later. When EE and Votto come back, and some of the young players start to adjust, like Bruce, for example, we can start winning getting some more late-inning victories for our relief pitchers. Our relievers already have 2 wins in June, which is only 1 less than the combined totals for April and May.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 06-10-2009 at 07:00 PM.

  11. #55
    The Franchise sivman17's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Akron, OH
    Posts
    736

    Re: I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 game

    of course we will win 85 games. that's why i placed a future bet at the mgm grand for them to win at least 79 games


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25