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View Poll Results: What about Strasburg?

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  • Draft him....duh.

    48 65.75%
  • Pass on him....duh.

    25 34.25%
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Thread: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

  1. #1
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    This is a simple poll but hopefully it can generate some interesting discussion on pitching and pitching prospects etc.

    Strasburg is simply destroying the NCAA (34 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 74 K; K/9= 19.4, BB/9= 1.8, K/BB= 10.6). His agent (Scott Boras) is building the case that Strasburg isn't a normal pitcher entering the draft but rather he's a finished product much like Dice K. Boras is hinting that signing Strasburg will take a major league contract (obviously I guess since Strasburg might not pitch much in the minors) worth.....get ready for this...........$50M!!!!!!!!

    The poll is simple- if the Reds had the Nats' pick, would you draft Strasburg given the contract it will take to sign him will destroy slot in ways that Godzilla could only dream of decimating Tokyo (even if it's not quite $50M in the end)?
    Last edited by jojo; 03-22-2009 at 12:11 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Boras always -- ALWAYS -- comes out with some ridiculous number way in advance of the negotiating period and pairs it with a threat that his client will go elsewhere if he doesn't get it. This is how he works. It's all the act of setting the stage to maximize the number his client eventually gets. The Manny situation is a perfect example. He knew the market was small and that Manny wasn't going to get 4/100. But he put it out there anyways and worked his butt off squeezing out every drop of leverage he had. It only played out the way it did because he finally came up against a GM who was willing to play chicken long enough.

    At the end of the day, there's no way an amateur pitcher turns down a $20-25M major league contract (what I think he'll get), pushing back his eventual massive free agency pay day a year, to go pitch overseas -- risking injury in the process.

    If I'm the Reds, the first thing I do is make the decision whether or not I think the threat is real or a bluff. As stated above, I think it's a bluff, I draft him and take him down to the wire, paying him up to the $$ my evaluations say he's likely to produce.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #3
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Boras always -- ALWAYS -- comes out with some ridiculous number way in advance of the negotiating period and pairs it with a threat that his client will go elsewhere if he doesn't get it. This is how he works. It's all the act of setting the stage to maximize the number his client eventually gets. The Manny situation is a perfect example. He knew the market was small and that Manny wasn't going to get 4/100. But he put it out there anyways and worked his butt off squeezing out every drop of leverage he had. It only played out the way it did because he finally came up against a GM who was willing to play chicken long enough.

    At the end of the day, there's no way an amateur pitcher turns down a $20-25M major league contract (what I think he'll get), pushing back his eventual massive free agency pay day a year, to go pitch overseas -- risking injury in the process.

    If I'm the Reds, the first thing I do is make the decision whether or not I think the threat is real or a bluff. As stated above, I think it's a bluff, I draft him and take him down to the wire, paying him up to the $$ my evaluations say he's likely to produce.
    If you're the Reds though do you think hard about taking Green at #1 instead given their organizational black hole at short and the Boras drama with Strasburg as part of the mix? Green is likely to be an elite player on a fast track too (though not as fast as Strasburg).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    You draft him and attempt to sign him. There is no reason to pass him up. The money might be a problem but you simply just dont pass on that arm.

    How many guys pass up signing as a high 1st and end up getting more money in the long run?

  6. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    There is no way I pay him more than $15M. Absolutely no chance. Mark Prior is the previous high deal and he got 10.5M and I would make an argument that Prior was better if not at least as good as Strasburg as Juniors.

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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Didn't Rick Porcello get more?

    Anyone have a mechanics scouting report? The video I have seen he has a little bit of the inverted w going on which could be a pretty big problem.

  8. #7
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There is no way I pay him more than $15M. Absolutely no chance. Mark Prior is the previous high deal and he got 10.5M and I would make an argument that Prior was better if not at least as good as Strasburg as Juniors.
    I think Rick's estimate is probably a good one. Strasburg's contract is going to require a big gulp even if it ends up being half of Boras' rhetoric.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    Didn't Rick Porcello get more?

    Anyone have a mechanics scouting report? The video I have seen he has a little bit of the inverted w going on which could be a pretty big problem.
    Porcello got 7 something. David Price could technically get 11.5 Million depending on the time he spends in the majors. There are some people who are concerned with his mechanics though.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think Rick's estimate is probably a good one. Strasburg's contract is going to require a big gulp even if it ends up being half of Boras' rhetoric.
    I let someone else take that chance if that is the kind of money he is willing to actually sign for. It defeats the entire purpose of the draft and prearbitration years being cheap.

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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Porcello got 7 something. David Price could technically get 11.5 Million depending on the time he spends in the majors. There are some people who are concerned with his mechanics though.
    I thought Porcello got 11 something also but thats probably the same thing about Prices contract.

    Yea I just read the driveline mechanics piece on Strasburg and he is pretty down on him and says he reminds him of Mark Prior a lot. Not a good sign.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    I thought Porcello got 11 something also but thats probably the same thing about Prices contract.

    Yea I just read the driveline mechanics piece on Strasburg and he is pretty down on him and says he reminds him of Mark Prior a lot. Not a good sign.
    Prior was more of an inverted W thing. Strasburg isn't really, he loads behind his back unlike Prior who loaded above his shoulders. Still, the action that Strasburg uses to load behind his back is not smooth in any fashion.

  13. #12
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Given the economy, there is no way a team should invest significant money in a pitcher, especially one that has never pitched professionally.

    Remember the whole crazy bonus money started with the Yankees giving over $1M to Brien Taylor, who never saw the majors. Granted, Taylor was a HS pitcher, but Prior is a perfect example of a can't miss college pitcher who missed. Baseball history is littered with them.

    Also, Boras gets close to the crazy gauntlet setting number that he sets at the beginning of negotiations more often than not. Look at A-Rod and Zito, and if you want draft examples, look at J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Matt Weiters and Pedro Alveraz. Boras did not bluff with Drew and Varitek.

    Boras is not bluffing with Strasburg. Boras is evil and I mean that literally. He has no problem putting Strasburg's career in jeopardy if he thinks it would make him, Boras, more money in the long run.

    Considering how many teams Boras has pissed off lately, I could see no one drafting Strasburg and him going to Japan.

    EDIT: I do think that if he could be had for a long term $25M contract, he's not a bad investment or risk. But I just don't see Boras settling for that. He needs to prove that he still can get what he asks for in this ecomomy to feed his ego.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 03-22-2009 at 02:21 PM.

  14. #13
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    If Strasburg can make it to the majors in year one, basically a $25M contract would equate to $4M a year. Lets say he "only" turns into Tim Linceum (obviously thats not exactly a worse case scenario). Is that worth $4M a year? It's still a steal really. I bet the Giants wish Lincecum would be willing to sign for something like that.

    I think at issue is the estimate of his true skill level (i.e. how well/quickly will his college numbers translate). When posing the poll, I was wondering what the minor league gurus here thought about that kind of stuff.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #14
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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Prior was more of an inverted W thing. Strasburg isn't really, he loads behind his back unlike Prior who loaded above his shoulders. Still, the action that Strasburg uses to load behind his back is not smooth in any fashion.
    Yea I keep reading and there are videos and photos of him doing the Inverted W and the behind the back one. Its not as extreme as Prior when he does do it though. He certainly is putting some extra strain somewhere in his arm most of the time.

    Comps I've read is Prior, and Smoltz. It's hard to like what he does for sure though.

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    Re: Stephen Strasburg Over Slot Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Given the economy, there is no way a team should invest significant money in a pitcher, especially one that has never pitched professionally.

    Remember the whole crazy bonus money started with the Yankees giving over $1M to Brien Taylor, who never saw the majors. Granted, Taylor was a HS pitcher, but Prior is a perfect example of a can't miss college pitcher who missed. Baseball history is littered with them.

    Also, Boras gets close to the crazy gauntlet setting number that he sets at the beginning of negotiations more often than not. Look at A-Rod and Zito, and if you want draft examples, look at J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Matt Weiters and Pedro Alveraz. Boras did not bluff with Drew and Varitek.

    Boras is not bluffing with Strasburg. Boras is evil and I mean that literally. He has no problem putting Strasburg's career in jeopardy if he thinks it would make him, Boras, more money in the long run.

    Considering how many teams Boras has pissed off lately, I could see no one drafting Strasburg and him going to Japan.
    Someone in the top 5 will draft him with out a doubt. If he doesnt sign he will regret it for sure. Hes not going to get more or much more money 1 year removed from the draft.

    Which reminds me I cant wait to see where Aaron Crow goes this year.


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