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Thread: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    The guys at the Replacement Yankees Weblog have finished their projection extravaganza based upon running simulations using inputs from the publically available projection systems CHONE, THT, Pecota, Marcels, ZiPS and Cairo.

    They ran simulations for each separately and have combined results too.

    Code:
    NL Cent	 W 	 L	 RF 	 RA	 Div 	 WC	StD W 	   Std RF	 Std RA 	 Median	 Mode 	 1  	 2  	 3  	 4  	 5  	 6 	 APW 	 Std APW
    CHN	91.5 	70.5 	815 	713 	3933.8 	534.5 	85 - 98	776 - 855 	675 - 750	92 	93 	4057 	1248 	466 	159 	58 	12 	93 	89 - 98
    STL	84.1 	77.9 	771 	740 	1036.5 	728.9 	78 - 90	732 - 810 	702 - 778	84 	85 	1125 	2060 	1519 	778 	392 	126 	87 	83 - 90
    MIL	81.9 	80.1 	778 	769 	636.8 	517.8 	75 - 88	740 - 815 	730 - 808	82 	82 	699 	1619 	1605 	1109 	655 	313 	82 	78 - 85
    CIN	77.8 	84.2 	739 	769 	261.5 	208.4 	72 - 84	702 - 776 	730 - 807	78 	78 	291 	752 	1359 	1817 	1205 	576 	77 	74 - 81
    HOU	73.0 	89.0 	729 	806 	70.8 	79.3 	67 - 79	691 - 766 	766 - 846	73 	75 	80 	347 	676 	1233 	2045 	1619 	73 	69 - 76
    PIT	69.8 	92.2 	731 	842 	60.5 	43.7 	63 - 76	693 - 769 	801 - 883	70 	71 	66 	194 	407 	886 	1488 	2959 	66 	61 - 71
    The results probably aren't news to many of us as the Reds are predicted to finish 78-84 with win totals ranging from 74 to 81 depending upon the projection system. But it is in stark contrast to a recent effort by JinAz.

    It's difficult to see this as a playoff year no matter which projection system you look at as a .500 season would seem to be a realistic hope based upon the sims.

    As always, projections aren't destiny. The total projections can be found at the link above. Here is their blurb about the Reds based upon the sims:

    Team: Cincinnati
    Avg Prj W: 78
    2008 Actual W: 74
    2008 PythagenPat W: 71
    W Diff: 4
    PythagenPat W Diff: 7
    Avg Prj RF: 739
    2008 RF: 704
    RF Diff: 35
    Avg RA: 768
    2008 RA: 800
    RA Diff: -32
    RF+RA Diff: 67
    Division %: 4%
    Wild Card %: 4%
    Playoff %: 8%
    High W: 82 (chone)
    Low W: 76 (pecota)
    Gap: 6
    Avg Div Plc: 4

    Why they might be better than projected: Jay Bruce. Joey Votto. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Homer Bailey may be able to put it together at age 23. Edinson Volquez was amazing through the All Star Break, 117.2 IP, 126 Ks, 2.29 ERA but scuffled a little after 78.1 IP, 80 Ks, 4.60 ERA. If that was due to fatigue, then he has decent chance to exceed his projections, which also include 80 innings of 7.20 ERA pitching for Texas.

    Why they might be worse than projected:

    Willy Taveras is a decent glove in CF but he might kill them at the top of the order. The rest of their defense still looks like a possible concern as well.
    Does this analysis seem realistic? Or are they off their rockers?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    Any projection that sees them as mediocre agrees with what most Reds fans already know. Whether the projection is 77-85 or 81-81 or 83-79 is pretty immaterial, in my opinion.

    Of course, luck and unexpected performances can swing the team in either direction, but, again, that kind of analysis has been practiced by casual baseball fans forever.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    Casual baseball fans have built 6 different projection systems, ran 1000 simulations for each one and combined the results forever?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    It's realistically within my range of expectations. Probably on the low end of wins but my meter is always calibrated using the "homer" setting. I'd put the RA and RF just a bit lower but I doubt that would change the Pythag that much.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    Casual baseball fans have built 6 different projection systems, ran 1000 simulations for each one and combined the results forever?
    No, casual fans tend to know whether their team is horrible, mediocre, or good. And they know that the unexpected can make things better or worse. Not to denigrate the work that goes into these team-projecting systems -- it's pretty challenging statistical work -- but what it actually produces is of very limited value outside itself, in my opinion. It confirms what we already know.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    It seems accurate to a lot of projections out there. The Reds, Cards, and Brewers all seem to be within the same area. The Brewers and Cards seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt over the Reds. IMO pitching will be the deciding factor as to which of the three teams finish better.

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    Last year the Reds won 74, and their number of pythag wins was 72.

    I think it's realistic to estimate four more wins this season, under the following conditions:

    + optimism about the bullpen. This is realistic, although a little risky since the aging Weathers and Rhodes are expected to be major contributors.

    + improvement from position players. We will get better production out of CF, RF, and C this year. That is pretty certain. Will it be enough to offset the loss of offense in LF? Time will tell.

    + improvement from starting pitching: There's some upside (compared to last year) in Arroyo, Harang, and Ceuto. Volquez will probably not be quite as good as last year, but I think the other 3 can more than offset that.

    So, yes, I see 78 wins as very realistic, based on my non scientific, qualitative guestimate. I don't see this team getting to .500, but at least 78 wins is a step in the right direction for a team that's been going backwards in the W-L record.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: What the projection systems say about the '09 Reds

    "The rest of their defense still looks like a possible concern as well."

    I don't agree with that. Now that Keppinger is out, this looks to be the best defense the Reds have had in years. True, EdE is a stinker and the catching position could be better defensively, but I'd hardly say the defense looks to be "concerning."


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