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Thread: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

  1. #1
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    It seems everyone is worried about the Reds offense based on their offense this spring. They have had a lot games where they only score 1-3 runs, and they have averaged 4.1 runs a game overall. Only Houston has been worse this spring at scoring runs.

    However, looking at how the players who will make the team and start most of the games did this spring, the Reds offense was pretty good. I took each player who was expected to make the team, and figured out their estimated production based on their spring stats and estimated playing time. This is what I got.
    Code:
    Hernandez	34
    Hanigan	        61
    Votto	       130
    Phillips	87
    EE	        50
    Gonzalez	38
    Janish	        16
    Dickerson	78
    Gomes	        27
    Taveras	        60
    Bruce	       101
    Nix       	20
    Hairston	10
    pitchers	10
    total	        722
    Now I know that this means nothing, that spring stats are not projectable for the full season, but it does show that the Reds had a better offensive spring that people think. If they had played their regulars, they probably would have averaged around 4.45 runs a game, not that it matters.

    Still lots of reasons to be worried about offense this year, but the Reds offensive production this spring is not one of them.

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    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    How are you calculating runs?

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    I don't think EE is going to hit .200 all season either.

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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    As pahster asked, I'm wondering how you're calculating runs.

    In any event, if that projection is reasonably accurate, a 722 run offense will very likely leave this team short of .500 as it's precisely the type of offensive production that will drag the team down. To have any shot at 85+ wins and playoff contention, the Reds would have to lead the league in pitching if the offensive unit can only put up 722 runs.

    The Reds need an 800 run offensive unit and a 700 run pitching/defensive unit. Post that up, grab your 90 wins, then see how the chips fall with the division and standings.
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    It seems everyone is worried about the Reds offense based on their offense this spring.
    I'm not worried about the Reds offense based on their offense this spring. I am worried about the Reds offense based on the fact that they have maybe 1 or 2 guys who are even above average, and a whole bunch of guys who are below average, based on their careers to date.

  7. #6
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    There is a lot going against the offense this season, due not to Spring performance but to OBP issues from every regular with a track record longer than Votto's save EE.

    On the bright side, most projection systems see a breakout from EE and marked improvement from Bruce. I think, ultimately, too much Taveras, Hairston, and/or Gonzalez at the top of the lineup--getting the most at-bats--will create a major pull on the offense. Phillips should also hit lower, optimally sixth.

    EE also needs to stop being as pull happy as last year and hopefully that will result in him getting some doubles back. We have heard lip service to this effect from Baker in the spring so I have optimism here.

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Your are right, it does make the numbers look better when you focus on the Reds' regulars You also need to consider the quality of pitching they were facing in Spring Training was far inferior to what they will face during the regular season. The Reds have even struggled to score when facing minor league pitchers.

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    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    I'm not worried about the Reds offense based on their offense this spring. I am worried about the Reds offense based on the fact that they have maybe 1 or 2 guys who are even above average, and a whole bunch of guys who are below average, based on their careers to date.
    That about sums it up.
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    I can do the Hully Gully IowaRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    I'm not worried about the Reds offense based on their offense this spring. I am worried about the Reds offense based on the fact that they have maybe 1 or 2 guys who are even above average, and a whole bunch of guys who are below average, based on their careers to date.
    That DOES sum it up. The ST numbers are horrible icing on an already lackluster cake
    More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can't wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that's not only better, but also more directly involves me.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by IowaRed View Post
    That DOES sum it up. The ST numbers are horrible icing on an already lackluster cake
    What alarms me is that the ST number roughly go along with how the team scored and hit after the departure of Dunn and Griffey, not that they were that much better then.

    We had better hope that our pitchers are lights out this year. Otherwise, with things as they are currently, we'e going to lose a lot of games 4-3.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    What alarms me is that the ST number roughly go along with how the team scored and hit after the departure of Dunn and Griffey, not that they were that much better then.

    We had better hope that our pitchers are lights out this year. Otherwise, with things as they are currently, we'e going to lose a lot of games 4-3.
    But its more exciting isn't it?

    I think this team has a chance this year to be an 80-85 win team, but its going to take a bunch of things going right. If the Reds pitching staff isn't a top 3 NL staff, its not going to be a pretty season unless two hitters join Joey Votto in the upper .800's in the OPS column... and that means Bruce and Edwin as they are the only guys really capable of doing that on this team.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But its more exciting isn't it?

    I think this team has a chance this year to be an 80-85 win team, but its going to take a bunch of things going right. If the Reds pitching staff isn't a top 3 NL staff, its not going to be a pretty season unless two hitters join Joey Votto in the upper .800's in the OPS column... and that means Bruce and Edwin as they are the only guys really capable of doing that on this team.
    What's scary, Doug, is that I have no confidence in either player to do that. Bruce is young and will surely come around sometime, but Edwin apparently is going to be one of those guys who just never gets there. That's sad. I've followed the boxscores all spring and what I see I do not like. When the 11 players who are hitting the best are players who won't see action this year or are pitchers, there is cause for concern. Couple that with Harang's 4.56 ERA (and allowing more hits than innings pitched), Arroyo's 5.95 ERA, and Cordero's apparently bad spring and the hitting becomes more important.

    Yes, ST isn't anything but a warmup, but if is what is to come, my 81-win projection will go out the window quickly.
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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I don't think EE is going to hit .200 all season either.
    Exactly. He'll at least hit .220.

    :

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    As pahster asked, I'm wondering how you're calculating runs.

    In any event, if that projection is reasonably accurate, a 722 run offense will very likely leave this team short of .500 as it's precisely the type of offensive production that will drag the team down. To have any shot at 85+ wins and playoff contention, the Reds would have to lead the league in pitching if the offensive unit can only put up 722 runs.

    The Reds need an 800 run offensive unit and a 700 run pitching/defensive unit. Post that up, grab your 90 wins, then see how the chips fall with the division and standings.
    I used the simple RC formula and estimated AB's. OBP X SLG X AB

    This is not an accurate projection nor meant to be. I have plenty of worries about the Reds offense this season, like the #1,2 and 4 slots in the order. I was simply showing that the Reds' regulars had decent offensive numbers this spring, even though they did not score a lot of runs. To be honest, I haven't heard this complaint from many people on this board, but I hear on the radio and from other Reds fans all the time.

    There is no reason to use these numbers or any spring training numbers to project anything. They were not in real game situations against players who were the best the other team had, nor against players that were always trying their best to win. Their only real use is to help see how the Reds did in these spring training games, nothing more. Also, they're not that good, just decent, just better than they appear to be when looking at the Reds run total for all of spring training.

    You are correct that the offense needs to score more than 722 runs for the team to have a winning season. Not sure they need to score 800, but definitely more than 722.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 04-03-2009 at 02:49 AM. Reason: typo

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Offense This Spring Better Than Appears

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Your are right, it does make the numbers look better when you focus on the Reds' regulars You also need to consider the quality of pitching they were facing in Spring Training was far inferior to what they will face during the regular season. The Reds have even struggled to score when facing minor league pitchers.
    Not to mention you need to compare the Reds regulars to the starters for the rest of the league. I am willing to bet the production from other teams' starters in spring training dwarfs the production of the Reds regulars...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."


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