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Thread: 2003 standings predictions-jan 8

  1. #16
    Glenn Braggs
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    Haynes isn't durable?

    How do you define "durable"?
    In 2002:
    - Haynes averaged nearly 6 innings per start (~5.8)
    - Dessens averaged nearly 6 innings per start (~5.9)
    - Dempster averaged exactly 6 1/3 innings per start

    I would call a starter "durable" if he is able to pitch over 6 innings per start.

    Which directly leads me to the following point:

    Dessens had a career year, and there is no reason to believe he can keep last years numbers up. They were an aberration. He is a 6 inning pitcher at best w/ a 4.40 era. We could get that from Brian Reith.

    As you see, it's a legend that Haynes was more durable in 2002 than Dessens. Actually it was the other way around although you can say, that both are strictly 6 inning pitchers. I remember a good statement from Red Storm some time ago. He wrote, that Boone and Gullett handled Hanyes beautifully, as they more often than not pulled the plug on the questionables in the exact perfect spot in the 5+ IP range to save the team from worse damage.

    Btw, do you believe that Haynes could repeat his 15 win season? The truth is that he was about the same pitcher with the Brewers in 2001, as he was with the Reds in 2002. Speaking of his ERA, Haynes had a career year ... otherwise he had almost the same hit, walk and IP ratio like with the Brewers. His just got better run support (4.71 in 2002 compared to 3.75 in 2001).

    bullpen looks better than last year actually Willy finished very strong, as did Chen.

    Why does the bullpen look better???
    Rijo is over the hill
    Sullivan had a horrible year, hopefully his arm is sound
    Chen did not finish especially strong
    (His last 10 outings: 9.53 ERA!)
    Riedling looks promising
    Hudson is unproven and gives up too many walks. His fastball is fast, but straight.

    Willy is more than proven IMO.

    He has been around a while, but is not a proven closer as his 4 blown saves in 12 chances in 2002 state.

    Best relief pitcher we have is not White, but is probably Sully. I look for him to bounce back from a subpar year.

    Last season White was among the best LH reliever in the majors. Unfortunately he also wasn't available for a longer stint because of injuries. In contrast to other lefthanders, Gabe is a great control pitcher but I understand that the Reds would rather go with Chen, Heredia or Mercker who get paid way less than White.

    And yet the reds were among the league leaders in SB. Casey is slow, but the rest ain't too bad. just their baserunning judgement is poor

    Aaron Boone stole 32, Dunn 19. I just saw that the Reds finished third in the NL in stolen bases, which surprised me quite a bit. The team lacks a speedy leadoff hitter with a good on base percentage, though.

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  3. #17
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    I define durable as 200 innings.

    Dessens has done that when?

    Haynes has been a consistent innings eater his entire career. Last year he got better as the year went on. I look for improvement in most of his numbers except wins, because yes he did get lucky alot.

    I see the 'pen as:

    Sully
    Reitsma
    Felix Heredia
    Hudson
    Reidling
    Williamson (closing, though he should start IMO)

    If Rijo makes the club, it'll be as 7th man in the 'pen.... mop up duty.

    Take a closer look at willy's numbers. Over the last two months he was flat out dominating.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #18
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    AL East
    New York
    Boston (WC)
    Toronto
    Baltimore
    Tampa Bay

    AL Central
    Minnesota
    Chicago
    Cleveland
    Detroit
    Kansas City

    AL West
    Oakland
    Anaheim
    Texas
    Seattle

    Oakland over Boston
    Minnesota over New York

    Oakland over Minnesota

    NL East
    Expos
    Philadelphia
    Atlanta
    New York
    Florida


    NL Central
    Houston
    Cincinnati (WC)
    Chicago
    St Louis
    Pittsburgh
    Milwaukee

    NL West
    Arizona
    Los Angeles
    San Francisco
    San Diego
    Colorado

    Cincinnati over Arizona
    Montreal over Houston

    Cincinnati over Montreal

    Cincinnati over Oakland in game 7 Acevedo WS -MVP
    "As long as I have fun playing, the stats will take care of themselves." - Ken Griffey Jr.

  5. #19
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    Looks like you and I are charter members of the Optimists Club of America, Neo. When its just mid January you have to be optimistic!

  6. #20
    Glenn Braggs
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    Originally posted by TRF
    I define durable as 200 innings.

    Dessens has done that when?

    Dessens pitched 205 innings for the Reds in 2001.

    Haynes NEVER pitched 200 innings or more so far in his career.

    But I understand where you are coming from. If Dessens wouldn't have been injured last season, he would have pitched about 200 innings (like Haynes) in 34 starts. It's a bit problematic to compare Jimmy with Elmer, because Haynes has been a regular starting pitcher since 1997 and Dessens wasn't converted into a starter before 2000. But he even has more complete games (2 in 88 career starts) compared to 1 in 181 career starts.

    Since both of them are starters, the statistics proof that it is a myth that Haynes is more durable. They are both 6 inning pitchers who fade after passing this mark. If I remember correctly, Jimmy has an opponent batting average well over .300 against him after 6 innings.

    I would take Dessens over Haynes anyday.

  7. #21
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    ok good point. I had forgotten that elmer got 200 in 2001.

    But haynes era has dropped every year since 1999.

    I like that trend, and think it will continue. After the allstar break, haynes was much better than he was in the first half, just a bit unlucky. pre- allstar break 4.44 era post ASB 3.76. runs and earned runs way down in the second half. long balls cut in half.

    Gully saw something here he could work with, and I am looking for a huge year from Haynes.

    They'll call me a prophet.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #22
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Originally posted by TRF
    I think the Cards are in for a surprise. Their rotation doesn't look that strong.
    TRF...the Cards have Morris and Williams as their #1 and #2 guys. They are one of the best 1-2 combinations in the NL. Why don't you think their rotation is that strong? Do you think the Reds have a better rotation?

  9. #23
    Time is the Revelator. LvJ's Avatar
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    AMERICAN LEAGUE
    EAST
    1. Boston
    2. New York
    3. Toronto
    4. Baltimore
    5. Tampa Bay

    Central
    1. Minnesota
    2. Chicago
    3. Cleveland
    4. Detroit
    5. Kansas City

    West
    1. Oakland
    2. Anaheim
    3. Texas
    4. Seattle

    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    East
    1. Philadelphia
    2. New York
    3. Atlanta
    4. Montreal
    5. Florida

    Central
    1. Chicago
    2. Houston
    3. Cincinnati
    4. St Louis
    5. Pittsburg
    6. Milwaukee

    West
    1. Arizona
    2. San Fransisco
    3. San Diego
    4. Los Angeles
    5. Colorado
    Hide your power alleys; Hide your wife

  10. #24
    Man Pills
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    Same old, same old for the NL

    Atlanta, Houston, St. Louis, San Fran are clearly the best teams in the league on paper. I suspect a surprise will crop up though--Montreal? Florida? Pittsburgh?

  11. #25
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    I would like to know why so many of you still put Atlanta and Arizona in the playoffs.. mark it down, THEY ARE DONE! The central will be a fun this year and the most competitive, i am not saying the best, but it will be the most fun to watch. My prediction is the top 3 spots in the Central will be separated by 10 games tops. Astros, Cards, Reds or Cubs in no particular order .... Injuries and surprise players will play a HUGE part.

    Just my Opinion !

  12. #26
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    AB....I'd rank the D-Banks ahead of the Giants. Not only did they lose Kent, but they lost Ortiz.

  13. #27
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    Ok , i can see that on one side, but on the other .. who do they have ?? Come on, how long can Schilling/Johnson keep it up ? and after that who do they have? Your Cards beat the crap out of them in the playoffs. The D-backs have had their run and i bet that the BIG 2 in Arizona dont do so well this year. The D-backs could win the west, but the West will be the weakest division in MLB in 2003.

  14. #28
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Well....Johnson and Schilling are ALL they really have, and the D-Backs will go as far as those two carry them. The Cards have a history of beating up on Johnson....that's nothing new, and Drew hits Schilling well.

  15. #29
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    I don't make predictions when it comes to MLB, and I'm not gonna start now

    But if the Reds land another quality arm for this rotation, I wonder how many of you will be back here "editing" your selections? :evilgrin:

    Because if we can add an arm, and maintain our health (key issue), then I think (not predicting ) that we can win our division.

  16. #30
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Matty, Williams has had maybe a season and a half where he was actually any good. He has been an innings eater until last year, that is true. But until he joined the Cards, He was a 4.40 era pitcher. So maybe Duncan is a genious, maybe he can do a williams on Tomko. I just think that past Morris, there are some question marks. Will the real Woody Williams be the lights out guy you have seen for a total of one season worth of baseball, or the one the Padres jettisoned? Can anyone get through to Tomko? Wjat is the other 2/5 of the rotation? Is Carpenter going into the rotation? You guys lost some bullpen, what are the replacements like? Enjoy Joey Hamilton. I'm asking, because I don't know, and would appreciate the input.

    The Cubs are going to rely on four young pitchers (Wood, Prior, Cruz, Clement) and Estes. They have also bolstered their bullpen by adding Remlinger and Veres. I don't think much of their offense.

    The Astros may have the 2nd best young rotation in baseball, and they have a tremendous bullpen. Plus they have no place for Carlos Hernandez, who may be hurt. They have a lot of young pitchers ready to contribute now. (Sarloos, Munro and Redding) The killer B's are another year older, but the acquisition of Kent certainly helps a very potent offense. They have to be considered the favorites in the Central. Lance Berkman is the best young hitter in baseball.

    As for my Reds... I think the offense rises to the occasion, The pitching surprises, and we win the central by 10 games
    Suck it up cupcake.


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