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Thread: 2003 standings predictions-jan 8

  1. #1
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    2003 standings predictions-jan 8

    Since I'm a glutton for punishment, here are my official 2003 standings/playoff predictions. (Someone archive this badboy)

    AMERICAN LEAGUE
    EAST
    1. Boston
    2. New York
    3. Toronto
    4. Baltimore
    5. Tampa Bay

    Central
    1. Minnesota
    2. Chicago
    3. Cleveland
    4. Detroit
    5. Kansas City

    West
    1. Oakland
    2. Seattle (Wild Card)
    3. Texas
    4. Anaheim

    Oakland over Boston
    Seattle over Minnesota

    Oakland over Seattle

    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    East
    1. Philadelphia
    2. New York
    3. Montreal
    4. Atlanta
    5. Florida

    Central
    1. St Louis
    2. Houston (Wild Card)
    3. Chicago
    4. Cincinnati
    5. Pittsburg
    6. Milwaukee

    West
    1. San Fransisco
    2. San Diego
    3. Arizona
    4. Los Angeles
    5. Colorado

    St Louis over Philly
    San Fran over Houston

    San Fran over St Louis

    World Series
    Oakland over San Fran

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  3. #2
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    I think the Cards are in for a surprise. Their rotation doesn't look that strong. Seattle looks to have a major fall this year IMO anaheim repeats. Watch out for the Padres (sleeper pick) I like Towers as a GM. Toronto and the White Sox could surprise in the AL.

    Of course the Reds go wire to wire and win it all

    BTW thanks for the SS discussion. I haven't goofed off at work like this in months.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #3
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    I'll give it a shot

    AL EAST
    Yankees
    Boston (WC)
    Toronto
    Baltimore
    Devil Rays

    AL CENTRAL
    Minnesota
    White Sox
    Indians
    Royals
    Tigers

    AL WEST
    Oakland
    Seattle
    Anaheim
    Texas

    NL EAST
    Philly
    Atlanta (WC)
    Mets
    Montreal
    Florida

    NL CENTRAL
    Houston
    Cards
    Cubs
    Reds
    Pirates
    Milwaukee

    NL WEST
    Giants
    Arizona
    LA
    San Diego
    Colorado

    World Series: Yankees over Braves

  5. #4
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Here's mine:

    American League:
    EAST
    1. New York
    2. Boston (wild card)
    3. Toronto
    4. Baltimore
    5. Tampa Bay

    CENTRAL
    1. Minnesota
    2. Chicago
    3. Cleveland
    4. Detroit
    5. Kansas City

    WEST
    1. Oakland
    2. Anaheim
    3. Seattle
    4. Texas

    Oakland over Boston
    New York over Minnesota

    Oakland over New York

    National League
    EAST
    1. Atlanta
    2. Philadephia (wild card)
    3. New York
    4. Florida
    5. Montreal

    CENTRAL
    1. Houston
    2. St. Louis
    3 Cincinnati (tie)
    3. Chicago
    5. Pittsburgh
    6. Milwaukee

    WEST
    1. San Francisco
    2. Arizona
    3. Los Angeles
    4. San Diego
    5. Colorado

    Philadelphia over San Fransisco
    Atlanta over Houston

    Philadelphia over Atlanta

    WORLD SERIES

    Oakland over Philadelphia in 6.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
    -Snoop on his retirement

    Your Mom is happy.

  6. #5
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    Its almost impossible to predict the standings before ST but just for laughs here goes.....

    AMERICAN LEAGUE
    EAST
    1. New York
    2. Boston (WC)
    3. Toronto
    4. Tampa Bay
    5. Baltimore

    Central
    1. Minnesota
    2. Cleveland
    3. Chicago
    4. Detroit
    5. Kansas City

    West
    1. Oakland
    2. Anaheim
    3. Texas
    4. Seattle

    Boston over Oakland
    NY over Minnesota
    NY over Boston

    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    East
    1. Atlanta
    2. Philadelphia(WC)
    3. Montreal
    4. Florida
    5. New York

    Central (good race in the top 4)
    1. Houston
    2. Chicago
    3. St. Louis
    4. Cincinnati
    5. Pittsburgh
    6. Milwaukee

    West
    1. Arizona
    2. San Fransisco
    3. Los Angeles
    4. San Diego
    5. Colorado

    Arizona over Philly
    Atlanta over Houston
    Arizona over Atlanta

    World Series
    NY over Arizona

    Rematch but this time NY is ready.... I dunno if theres much of a chance that this will happen, but lets pray to god NY wins it because I believe that George will (if they keep losing) will keep adding and adding until the payroll is in the billions

  7. #6
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    all u need to know....REDS WIN WORLD SERIES IN 5 OVER OAKLAND

  8. #7
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    My Turn My Turn!!!

    AL

    EAST

    New York
    Boston (WC)
    Baltimore
    Toronto
    Tampa Bay

    CENTRAL

    Minnesota
    Chicago
    Cleveland
    Kansas City
    Detroit

    WEST

    Oakland
    Anaheim
    Seattle
    Texas

    NL

    EAST

    Atlanta
    Philadelphia
    New York
    Montreal
    Florida

    CENTRAL

    Houston
    St.Louis
    Cincinnati
    Chicago
    Pittsburgh
    Milwaukee

    WEST

    Arizona
    SF
    Los Angeles
    Colorado
    San Diego

    No Playoff Predictions from me....

  9. #8
    ShadezNation ramp101's Avatar
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    a nice biased opinion forthcoming....

    AL

    EAST

    New York
    Toronto
    Boston
    Baltimore
    Tampa Bay

    CENTRAL

    Chicago
    Minnesota (WC)
    Cleveland
    Kansas City
    Detroit

    WEST

    Oakland
    Seattle
    Anaheim
    Texas

    NL

    EAST

    Atlanta
    Florida(wc)
    New York
    Philadelphia
    Montreal


    CENTRAL

    Houston
    Cincinnati
    St.Louis
    Pittsburgh
    Chicago
    Milwaukee

    WEST

    Los Angeles
    Arizona
    San Diego
    SF
    Colorado
    woo woo woo, you know it

  10. #9
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Did I accidentally logon to the National Sportswriter's forum? You guys don't give the Reds much credit.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  11. #10
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    AL East
    New York
    Boston (WC)
    Toronto
    Baltimore
    Tampa Bay

    AL Central
    Minnesota
    Chicago
    Cleveland
    Detroit
    Kansas City

    AL West
    Oakland
    Texas
    Anaheim
    Seattle

    Boston over Oakland
    New York over Minnesota

    Boston over New York

    NL East
    Atlanta
    Puerto Rico RoughRiders
    Philadelphia
    Florida
    New York

    NL Central
    Houston
    Cincinnati (WC)
    Saint Louis
    Chicago
    Pittsburgh
    Milwaukee

    NL West
    Arizona
    Los Angeles
    San Diego
    San Francisco
    Colorado

    Cincinnati over Arizona
    Atlanta over Houston

    Cincinnati over Atlanta

    Cincinnati over Boston in 7


    That's my insanity and I'm sticking to it

  12. #11
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Originally posted by red-in-la
    Did I accidentally logon to the National Sportswriter's forum? You guys don't give the Reds much credit.
    What exactly have the Reds done that makes you think they'll be able to catch the Cards, Astros, and/or Cubs?

    All three of those teams are arguably stronger then when the season ended and the Reds are weaker.

  13. #12
    Glenn Braggs
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    Predicting a third or fourth place finish for the Reds is in my opinion already optimistic.


    The key points, why the Reds won't be competive:

    1) No solid starting pitching (2 starters even have yet to be named - Haynes was luckier but not better than in 2001 when he lost 17 games)
    2) Only one durable starter (Dempster)
    3) Average bullpen
    4) Unproven closer (Williamson)
    5) Best relief pitcher (White) likely to get traded to shed payroll
    6) Average overall defense
    7) Little team speed
    8) No true leadoff hitter
    9) Junior's production & health remain questionable
    10) Offensive production from catchers have to improve
    11) Team carries & pays two useless players: Castro & Stinnett

    and at least for some here another negative point

    12) Bob Boone is the manager
    (maybe that's a good thing afterall?!)



    The Reds rotation still needs a radical overhaul. Trying Graves as a starter is only the first step. Losing Dessens in combination with moving Reitsma to the bullpen places the Reds rotation among the worst in the NL. As long as no equal or better replacement for Dessens is signed/traded for, even the Pirates have a better rotation on paper.

    The infield defense will be average at best. Larson is a downgrade compared to Boone at third base. Larkin's defense is fair, but his loss of range and not having a good throwing arm anymore will hurt the Reds. Larkin will have to stay healthy and put up good offensive numbers ... otherwise he will be able to watch Lopez play "his" position from the bench.

    Speaking of second base, I doubt that Aaron Boone will have better defensive abilities in his first season there as Todd Walker. Hopefully groundball pitchers like Graves won't have to suffer too much through inadequate infield defense.

    Overall the offense is a bit lefty heavy and relies too much on a comeback by Ken Griffey Jr. and also improvements by Adam Dunn. All three outfielders will have to stay healthy to create an offensive force, considering that the Reds have no idea what kind of production they will get from two other natural power positions; first and third base.

    Especially the weak rotation makes me worry if the Reds can be a .500 team in 2003. Personally I doubt it. A fifth or last place finish in the NL Central is my projection.

  14. #13
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    RT I'll couter your argument with one from rila:

    Last season the reds were in 1st place for over 100 days with only 1 starter named befroe ST. We now have three.

    Haynes isn't durable?

    bullpen looks better than last year actually Willy finished very strong, as did Chen.

    Willy is more than proven IMO.

    Best relief pitcher we have is not White, but is probably Sully. I look for him to bounce back from a subpar year.

    you got me on defense, unless Lopez beats out Larkin for the starting job. yeah right.

    And yet the reds were among the league leaders in SB. Casey is slow, but the rest ain't too bad. just their baserunning judgement is poor

    #9 got me again. Murphy's law in overdrive on Junior.

    #10 I disagree somewhat with this.

    #11 yup


    Dessens had a career year, and there is no reason to believe he can keep last years numbers up. They were an aberration. He is a 6 inning pitcher at best w/ a 4.40 era. We could get that from Brian Reith.

    Yup we are relying on Junior's and Casey's return to health. It's a month before ST so I am optimistic that both are healthy. Being lefty heavy in a division with few LH starters, w/ a short right field porch? I'm ok with that.

    My darkhorse players to make the team out of ST...

    Luke Hudson (co-closer) and Jose Acevedo (starter). I also think Chen will make the rotation.

    I am predicting 94 wins.

    flame away.

    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #14
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    Pessimeist versus Optimist

    The key points, why the Reds won't be competive:

    1) No solid starting pitching (2 starters even have yet to be named - Haynes was luckier but not better than in 2001 when he lost 17 games)

    Haynes is consistent and good enough to be a third starter on any team. Yes he was locky lasdt year but he earned 12 or 13 of those wins. He was unlucky in Milwaukee. 12-15 wins
    Graves is not a gamble imo, he is a good pitcher and will be a good starter. The question is not will he be any good but how good will he be? 12-20 wins
    Dempster - Began showing what he was capable of in his last couple starts. As with Graves the question is just good or dominant? 14-20 wins
    Acevedo - Ready to go, pitched extremely well in AAA and winter, this is the year Juan emerges as a solid ML starter. 12-15 wins
    Chen, Reitsma - Lefty or righty, I'm comfortable with either for the 5th starter. Etherton, Harnisch, Basham, Prokopec, Rijo, Reith = plenty of fodder to choose from if we need replacements. Some are raw, some old, some hurt. If we get into this bunch the variables are wild but some are tantalizing - Basham for instance, or Moseley could come up and beat the odds by succeeding. Prokopec could come back strong or Etherton show complete recovery. A lot more risk but some upside here, too.
    Overall, our starters are better than we've seen in a long while.

    2) Only one durable starter (Dempster)
    Haynes can eat a lot of innings, too. Graves pitches with an economy that suggests he'll be able to eat a lot of innings without major problems.
    3) Average bullpen
    ??? As deep as any team's, good left-right balance, plenty of depth, top pitchers like White, Reidling and Willy
    4) Unproven closer (Williamson)
    How is he unproven? I'm with TRF, I consider him a proven commodity
    5) Best relief pitcher (White) likely to get traded to shed payroll
    Heredia and Mercker will alleviate the loss though I agree it would be better if we could keep him
    6) Average overall defense
    As long as its average we'll be okay. LaRue will be better, imo, and a healthy Junior gives us top D in center.
    7) Little team speed
    Not true. Average to batter than average speed overall. We do need coaching on baserunning but hopefully that is going to be addressed in ST. Dunn and Kearns should be better, certainly.
    8) No true leadoff hitter
    Actually, this is key on Lark. If he is healthy, there is no problem - I like him as leadoff.
    9) Junior's production & health remain questionable
    Yep. And until he plays the whole season and has a massive year people will question him. You know what? When it comes to Junior I am asking no questions. I believe. He'll have a tremedous year. I know if you're handicapping you have to look at this with a jaundiced eye but I'm not handicapping. I'm believing.
    10) Offensive production from catchers have to improve
    It will. LaRue will be better. I like Miller but I think Jason has a solid year at the plate and behind it.
    11) Team carries & pays two useless players: Castro & Stinnett
    Not useless. Not entirely. Well, not hardly. Maybe? Okay - vastly overpaid. Maybe we can hire Tonya Harding to break their legs with a ballbat and put both on the DL. I'm kidding. I think.

    Add to all this that Dunn will have a breakout year, finally reaching 40+ homers. He'll never have a high average but Kearns will. Austin hits .330 with 25 homers. Casey comes back and hits well. We trade him and White at the deadline for a stud pitcher.

    Basham comes up in September and pitches 3 terrific games, Moseley dominates AA, Howington and Aramboles regain top prospect status. Rose is reinstated. GAB is full every day.

    Reds win it all in a shocker. Case Closed.

  16. #15
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    Last season the reds were in 1st place for over 100 days with only 1 starter named befroe ST. We now have three.
    I've seen this argument a lot, so I figured I would respond to it. The Reds essentially played well until May 31, where they had a 32-21 record. Their record the rest of the season? 46-63. So to make the argument that the Reds played well enough to have first place for 50 days, you also have to acknowledge that they played so poorly the 4 or so months of the season that they dropped 17 games in the standings.

    It doesn't make a difference to me that we have 3 named starters rather than 1. Jimmy Haynes is to me a mediocre run-of-the mill pitcher who was blessed with tremendous run support last year. He is always good for a 1.5 WHIP and an ERA over 4, very close to the stats he posted en route to losing 17 games in 2001. Ryan Dempster has gone from All-Star to mediocre pitcher very quickly, and this is especially disturbing because Chris Welsh commented several times on the games last year that his velocity was down and that trainers thought he had too much bulk. He was so incredibly inconsistent last year that at times it looked like he was throwing BP and other times he was striking 8 or 9 guys out.

    Graves to me is our only All-Star caliber pitcher, and he is just learning how to start rather than relieve. I am thinking 15 wins from him, but the funniest thing in their conversion with Graves was 1) they did it at the end of the season last year when he wasn't really in the shape to do it (arguably a Bowdenesque move in that his save total was reduced and subsequently his arbitration paycheck) and 2) they have spent most of the offseason paying musical chairs in the infield when Graves is an extreme ground ball pitcher. I have always thought that if you have a somewhat suspect pitching staff, you need to at least play good infield defense so as to not give the other team an extra out.

    Anyway, I am not at all impressed with the pitching staff, especially if guys who I am not overly fond of (Acevedo, Chen, etc) vie for the last rotation spots. Given that the organization seems prone to rushing pitchers through the minors without much regard for their health or progress is equally disturbing, as not help is really in sight.

    The offense and defense aren't looking spectacular right now either. Essentially we have a very poorly constructed lineup. We have 3 middle of the order producers, and then essentially a lineup filled with 6-7-8 hitters. We have no viable top of the order candidates and generally lack team speed and baserunning skill. We have way too many critical guys coming off of some sort of injury. Our infield defense is shabby at best, and as I think VR said, reeks of late inning defensive replacements. Only about half of our lineup has regard for the strikezone anymore, with the likes of Boone, LaRue, Lopez, and now unfortunately Larkin barely posting OBP's over .300. We are putting in Larson at 3B, whom Bowden and Boone seem convinced will hit 40 homers without acknowledging that he has put up a career OPS under 500 against RHP.

    And even though I don't like arguments centered on intangibles, I honestly feel like we are sitting on a powder keg here. We are going to have some sort of controversy between Jr and Boone, there is going to be a whole "Larkin last year of contract" thing again, and Bowden is on the last year of his deal, meaning that if you think the gloves have already come off, think again. Unfortunately, right now 2003 reeks of 2000 right now. High expectations dashed in what overall is an organization on a downward spiral.

    I picked fourth place and without a huge pitching overhaul I can't see a much better finish. I'm sorry for being so negative but the last 6-8 months in Redsville has greatly disillusioned me.


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