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Thread: Juan Francisco's K rate

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco's K rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I see two talented players with different offensive skillsets. One has shown the ability to hit for huge power and knock in runs -- not just homers but a doubles machine as well. The other has shown the ability to hit for high average but with far less power so far.

    Neither walks. Both have defensive issues.

    One guy is credited as a huge potential offensive star, the other is repeatedly underestimated. That's how I see it.
    I would argue that Soto doesn't have far less game power. For their careers to this point Soto has a .174 isolated power, while Francisco has a .195 isolated power. Thats not a huge difference at all and Soto has been younger at both steps than Francisco was.

    I think the way you see if is you missing the point. No one in the history of baseball has come close to a good season, much less a good career with the walk rates and strikeout rates that Francisco has had in the minor leagues. There are cases of low walk, high contact guys like Soto having good seasons and careers in the major leagues. Couple in the fact that Soto also has power to hit 25-30 HR and well, there is potential there to be a Aramis Ramirez type of player offensively. Francisco doesn't have a major league comp because guys with his skillset don't make the majors and stick around. He must change something, be it walking more or walking less. Its not underrating him, its looking at the history of baseball for over 100 years.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 05-27-2009 at 02:54 PM.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Juan Francisco's K rate

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post

    I think the way you see if is you missing the point. No one in the history of baseball has come close to a good season, much less a good career with the walk rates and strikeout rates that Francisco has had in the minor leagues. There are cases of low walk, high contact guys like Soto having good seasons and careers in the major leagues. Couple in the fact that Soto also has power to hit 25-30 HR and well, there is potential there to be a Aramis Ramirez type of player offensively. Francisco doesn't have a major league comp because guys with his skillset don't make the majors and stick around. He must change something, be it walking more or walking less. Its not underrating him, its looking at the history of baseball for over 100 years.
    Francisco moves up a level each year, he is constantly adjusting to new pitching, and I am confident that if the Reds would keep him in AA this year and next, that by next year his K/BB rate will improve and he will knock the heck out of the ball. And he'll still be 23.

    The flaw in your "100 years of baseball" argument is that it looks at MLB numbers -- the end product -- not how players developed in the minors. Young hitters can improve, sometimes it's a matter of maturity and getting comfortable with new pitching levels.

    In the winter leagues, JF had no OBP problem, no walk problem. I understand the pitching was not top drawer. But when he was at a comfort level offensively, this player normalized his K/BB numbers. I think this will happen at AA as well, over some time.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-27-2009 at 03:13 PM.

  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco's K rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco moves up a level each year, he is constantly adjusting to new pitching, and I am confident that if the Reds would keep in AA this year and next, that by next year his K/BB rate will improve and he will knock the heck out of the ball.

    The flaw in your "100 years of baseball" argument is that it looks at MLB numbers -- the end product -- not how players developed in the minors. Young hitters can improve, sometimes it's a matter of maturity and getting comfortable with new pitching levels.

    In the winter leagues, JF had no OBP problem, no walk problem. I understand the pitching was not top drawer. But when he was at a comfort level offensively, this player normalized his K/BB numbers.
    The problem is that over his career Francisco hasn't really improved his K/BB rates at all. Sure, its only looking at the end product when talking about the major leagues, but guys don't make dramatic changes in their walk rates all that often from the minors to the majors.

    As for the winter league.... no one had a walk problem there. The strikezone was incredibly small by all accounts. Pitchers had to groove pitches down the middle or they were being called balls. Thats why every DWL record fell this season on the offensive side of things and by a long shot. Pitchers were only getting strikes called on swings.

    Players can improve and make changes in their skill set. The problem is, Juan hasn't for going on two plus years now. Sure, he has adjusted to the pitching at the different levels, but his walk rates have stayed the same as have his strikeout rate for the last year and a month. That isn't really considered an improvement because he went up a level.


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