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Thread: Future Big Trade

  1. #1
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    Future Big Trade

    It seems that the Reds are building toward an eventual big trade, probably for a fairly major hitter.

    Right now, they are stockpiling minor league depth and cannot possibly use all the prospects on the farm - unless the MLB rosters are expanded to 50.

    Two guys who could become the keys for a Reds trade are Yonder Alonso and Homer Bailey. Of course, Bailey has to right the ship. Or someone like Arroyo could be traded and Bailey or another young pitcher would move up.

    As for Alonso -- it's hard to see Votto moving off first base for the Reds over the next several years. They don't really need him in LF with Dickerson, Todd Frazier, Dorn all good prospects and others (like Hairston this year) available to fill gaps. And how does Votto in LF satisfy the desire for strong defensive outfielders? He's hardly played the position.

    Reds also have a large group of young relievers at AAA who can't even get a spot on the big club, many of whom have great arms. Guys like Roenicke, Bray, Fisher, Viola. Put two of them in a trade and the acquiring team gets value.

    Looks to me like the team is building toward a big trade. May not happen this year, but seems likely.

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  3. #2
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    I don't think you're off base at all. Check out what the Reds could have in 2011:
    Code:
     C Devin Mesoraco	 0.400
    1B Yonder Alonso	 0.600
    2B Chris Valaika	 0.400
    3B Nefi Soto		 0.400
    SS Zack Cozart		 0.400
    LF Todd Frazier		 0.400
    CF Drew Stubbs		 0.400
    RF Jay Bruce		 0.400 (unless he qualifies as a super two, which is slightly unlikely)
    
     C Ryan Hanigan		 0.400
    IF Adam Rosales		 0.400
    IF Paul Janish		 0.400
    OF Chris Heisey		 0.400
    OF Danny Dorn		 0.400
    
    SP Edinson Volquez	arbitration
    SP Aaron Harang		13.000
    SP Johnny Cueto		arbitration
    SP Homer Bailey		 0.400
    SP Micah Owings		arbitration
    
    CL Josh Roenicke	 0.400
    RP Jared Burton		arbitration
    RP Bill Bray		arbitration
    RP Zach Stewart		 0.400
    RP Danny Herrera	 0.400
    RP Carlos Fisher	 0.400
    RP Daryl Thompson	 0.400
    Between these five players, I'm sure the Reds could find trades to fill any holes (C, SS, CF?) in the roster I listed:
    Joey Votto (keep him if Alonso or Frazier doesn't work out)
    Brandon Phillips (keep him if Valaika doesn't work out)
    Edwin Encarnacion (keep him if Soto doesn't work out)
    Bronson Arroyo
    Francisco Cordero

    The team would cost only $20.8mm + five players' arbitration ($30mm?). A team of that caliber for such a small amount would be ridiculous.

  4. #3
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    C Devin Mesoraco 0.400
    1B Yonder Alonso 0.600
    2B Chris Valaika 0.400
    3B Nefi Soto 0.400
    SS Zack Cozart 0.400
    LF Todd Frazier 0.400
    CF Drew Stubbs 0.400
    RF Jay Bruce 0.400 (unless he qualifies as a super two, which is slightly unlikely)

    C Ryan Hanigan 0.400
    IF Adam Rosales 0.400
    IF Paul Janish 0.400
    OF Chris Heisey 0.400
    OF Danny Dorn 0.400

    SP Edinson Volquez arbitration
    SP Aaron Harang 13.000
    SP Johnny Cueto arbitration
    SP Homer Bailey 0.400
    SP Micah Owings arbitration

    CL Josh Roenicke 0.400
    RP Jared Burton arbitration
    RP Bill Bray arbitration
    RP Zach Stewart 0.400
    RP Danny Herrera 0.400
    RP Carlos Fisher 0.400
    RP Daryl Thompson 0.400
    By my count, you have a dozen questions marks on that 2011 roster.

    How many of those guys will actually morph into everyday/significant MLB talent?

  5. #4
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    I've really been giving a lot of thought as to what is going to happen with 1B/LF/3B.

    Logic would indicate that Votto moving to LF and Alonso at 1B would make the most sense. Though Votto's D at 1B is pretty great and I think he loses value being moved to LF. But Alonso would add value to the team by his bat being at 1B and Votto being in LF. I'd still venture the Reds move Votto to LF.

    But 3B is interesting. EdE is cheap right now. His defense still hasn't come around and his bat is interesting. Hard to say if he'll ever fully put it together the way many hope he does, but it's possible. But with him being in arb years now, his time may be closer to an end with the Reds. He's still pretty young. The question is...will Frazier outplay EdE? I don't think Frazier's defense is exceptional at 3B, but it's probably better than EdE's is. But might Walt forego this "defense first" approach and keep EdE at 3B and try to put Frazier at SS?

    That would leave the biggest question marks at C and CF. Stubbs may or may not put it together, but he may. C is by far the biggest hole, but if a solution could be found there, you'd be looking at 1 heck of an offensive team with the scenario described above. Some question marks to be sure.

    Either way, no matter what happens, I agree that a big(ger) trade has to happen. Walt has to capitalize on these prospects that don't have a future here. We have to use the surplus to fill holes and I think it's finally come to that.

  6. #5
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    the Mets and the Yankees each have a stud centerfielder in the minors...one of them could fit in just fine.

    Mets - Fernando Martinez http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5763

    Yankees - Austin Jackson http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/nyy/f...cts.jsp#Austin

  7. #6
    Attack Cat! OUReds's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I've really been giving a lot of thought as to what is going to happen with 1B/LF/3B.

    Logic would indicate that Votto moving to LF and Alonso at 1B would make the most sense. Though Votto's D at 1B is pretty great and I think he loses value being moved to LF. But Alonso would add value to the team by his bat being at 1B and Votto being in LF. I'd still venture the Reds move Votto to LF.

    But 3B is interesting. EdE is cheap right now. His defense still hasn't come around and his bat is interesting. Hard to say if he'll ever fully put it together the way many hope he does, but it's possible. But with him being in arb years now, his time may be closer to an end with the Reds. He's still pretty young. The question is...will Frazier outplay EdE? I don't think Frazier's defense is exceptional at 3B, but it's probably better than EdE's is. But might Walt forego this "defense first" approach and keep EdE at 3B and try to put Frazier at SS?

    That would leave the biggest question marks at C and CF. Stubbs may or may not put it together, but he may. C is by far the biggest hole, but if a solution could be found there, you'd be looking at 1 heck of an offensive team with the scenario described above. Some question marks to be sure.

    Either way, no matter what happens, I agree that a big(ger) trade has to happen. Walt has to capitalize on these prospects that don't have a future here. We have to use the surplus to fill holes and I think it's finally come to that.
    I don't think Walt would (or should) consider Frazier at short. Edwin will be the first player to get expensive and thus, if Frazier is a viable alternative, should make a good trading chip.

    Unfortunately, Edwin's trade value is trashed by the evident fact (to everyone except the Reds) that he cannot play a competent 3rd base. If we could establish that Edwin can (or even might) be able to play a position further down the defensive spectrum, we could help the team by removing his atrocious glove from third, while increasing his trade value to other teams (and thus our return when he is inevitably traded).
    Last edited by OUReds; 04-15-2009 at 07:43 PM.

  8. #7
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I've really been giving a lot of thought as to what is going to happen with 1B/LF/3B.

    Logic would indicate that Votto moving to LF and Alonso at 1B would make the most sense. Though Votto's D at 1B is pretty great and I think he loses value being moved to LF. But Alonso would add value to the team by his bat being at 1B and Votto being in LF. I'd still venture the Reds move Votto to LF.

    But 3B is interesting. EdE is cheap right now. His defense still hasn't come around and his bat is interesting. Hard to say if he'll ever fully put it together the way many hope he does, but it's possible. But with him being in arb years now, his time may be closer to an end with the Reds. He's still pretty young. The question is...will Frazier outplay EdE? I don't think Frazier's defense is exceptional at 3B, but it's probably better than EdE's is. But might Walt forego this "defense first" approach and keep EdE at 3B and try to put Frazier at SS?

    That would leave the biggest question marks at C and CF. Stubbs may or may not put it together, but he may. C is by far the biggest hole, but if a solution could be found there, you'd be looking at 1 heck of an offensive team with the scenario described above. Some question marks to be sure.

    Either way, no matter what happens, I agree that a big(ger) trade has to happen. Walt has to capitalize on these prospects that don't have a future here. We have to use the surplus to fill holes and I think it's finally come to that.
    I agree with most of this.

    Instead of looking at 2011, I would look at 2010 as follows:

    C QUESTION MARK
    1B Alonso
    2B Phillips
    SS QUESTION MARK
    3B Encarnacion
    LF Votto
    CF Dickerson/Stubbs
    RF Bruce

    C Hanigan
    INF Valaika
    INF Rosales
    OF Stubbs/Dickerson
    OF Dorn

    SP Harang
    SP Volquez
    SP Cueto
    SP Arroyo
    SP Owings

    CL Burton/Roenicke
    SU Roenicke/Burton

    As far as I can tell, this leaves the following players available for a trade:

    OFFENSIVE (pick one from following)
    Todd Frazier
    Yonder Alonso
    Edwin Encarnacion
    Joey Votto

    STARTING PITCHING (pick one from following)
    Bronson Arroyo
    Homer Bailey

    BULLPEN
    Francisco Cordero

    Some combination of the above (Frazier/Alonso or EdE/Votto), along with Bailey/Arroyo and Cordero should be able to fetch us the SS and C we so desperately need. The only names that really strike me as falling into that category are:

    Alcides Escobar SS MIL (Brewers probably won't trade him, don't have a corner need)
    Erick Aybar, SS LAA (Can he hit enough?)
    Brandon Wood, SS LAA (Can he field enough?)
    Yunel Escobar, SS ATL (Will Atlanta give him up?)
    Elvis Andrus, SS TEX (Can he hit enough?)
    Joquain Arias, SS TEX (Is he good enough?)

    Taylor Teagarden, C TEX
    Max Ramirez, C TEX

    Obviously, Texas looks like the best fit. From what I can tell, they definitely have a pitching need and maybe a corner player, although it is unclear which position he would play.

    Maybe some kind of deal like Todd Frazier and Arroyo OR Bailey for Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden? What do you think?
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #8
    So long old friend rotnoid's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    It's nice to finally be in this position. Given Walt's trade history, we may finally be in a spot to start taking the minor league depth and turning it into major league talent. If not, that team in 2011 still looks pretty decent assuming most of those guys pan out. Still though, I'd rather he spin a lot of the prospects for proven talent. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the big club has the payroll flexibility in this climate to make it happen any time soon.
    I'm just like everybody else. I have two arms, two legs and 4,000 hits."

    -Pete Rose

  10. #9
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    I'd trade Alonso for a stud SS prospect or a stud pitching prospect. Keep Votto at 1st base for the next 20 years.
    Most Vottomatic Player

  11. #10
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Votto shouldn't be bumped from 1st unless he shows he can't play 1st and so far hes done nothing but improve.

  12. #11
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I don't think you're off base at all. Check out what the Reds could have in 2011:
    Code:
     C Devin Mesoraco	 0.400
    1B Yonder Alonso	 0.600
    2B Chris Valaika	 0.400
    3B Nefi Soto		 0.400
    SS Zack Cozart		 0.400
    LF Todd Frazier		 0.400
    CF Drew Stubbs		 0.400
    RF Jay Bruce		 0.400 (unless he qualifies as a super two, which is slightly unlikely)
    
     C Ryan Hanigan		 0.400
    IF Adam Rosales		 0.400
    IF Paul Janish		 0.400
    OF Chris Heisey		 0.400
    OF Danny Dorn		 0.400
    
    SP Edinson Volquez	arbitration
    SP Aaron Harang		13.000
    SP Johnny Cueto		arbitration
    SP Homer Bailey		 0.400
    SP Micah Owings		arbitration
    
    CL Josh Roenicke	 0.400
    RP Jared Burton		arbitration
    RP Bill Bray		arbitration
    RP Zach Stewart		 0.400
    RP Danny Herrera	 0.400
    RP Carlos Fisher	 0.400
    RP Daryl Thompson	 0.400
    .
    Based on this I hope Harang buys dinner whenever the team goes out.

  13. #12
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Degenerate39 View Post
    I'd trade Alonso for a stud SS prospect or a stud pitching prospect. Keep Votto at 1st base for the next 20 years.
    How about Gordon Beckham! Oh wait... can anyone say Scott Kazmir?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  14. #13
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    People are still discussing trading Joey Votto? WOW.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  15. #14
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    People are still discussing trading Joey Votto? WOW.
    It may come down to Joey Votto or the Reds' biggest prospect, and Alonso has the higher ceiling. It's not like the current team is built to win a World Series this year.

  16. #15
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    Re: Future Big Trade

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    It may come down to Joey Votto or the Reds' biggest prospect, and Alonso has the higher ceiling. It's not like the current team is built to win a World Series this year.
    I wouldn't trade Votto for two Alonso's. Trading Joey Votto is about the craziest idea I have heard.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton


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