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View Poll Results: What production will the Reds get out of Homer

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  • Negative production, like Maj

    8 12.90%
  • below average

    10 16.13%
  • decent bullpen arm

    4 6.45%
  • average starting pitcher

    19 30.65%
  • above average .. either in the pen or starting

    21 33.87%
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Thread: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

  1. #16
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    I'm not sure. Homer has pitches that can get major league hitters out, but he needs to throw more strikes. Sometimes he can't even put his fastball over the plate and that is a problem. I love his curveball, it has the ability to make hitters look silly when he throws it where he wants too. Ultimately, I think Homer will be put in the bullpen, maybe here, maybe somewhere else. I think he could be pretty good in the pen. We'll see what happens. I'm rooting for him.

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  3. #17
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Who is going to provide this solid return for Homer? And why?
    List of teams (that need pitching):

    SF
    'Zona
    Rockies
    Houston
    Pittsburgh
    Nationals
    Braves
    Angels
    Rangers
    SouthSiders
    KC
    Baltimore

    My guess would be the Rangers, and why?

    ... b/c they need pitching...

  4. #18
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Probably not a fair poll in that, unless Bailey has a dramatic flourish this season, he doesn't have a future with the Reds. His last option has been burnt. He either does his business this season or the Reds are going to get him off the pot.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Not sure if it will be for the Reds or not, but he will be productive for someone over the next 5+ years that he is arbitration eligible.

  6. #20
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm not sure I agree with that. Sending him down after the results he was putting up in ST had to (it simply HAD to) shoot down his confidence. When a kid makes the strides he did this off season to right the ship and correct the things everybody said he needed to work on...you need to reward that work. Masset didn't show me much of anything in ST, but because we already signed 3 pitchers in the off season (Weathers, Lincoln & Rhodes) when we really only needed one (maybe 2) forced the Reds hand in having to choose between Masset & Bailey. If not for those signings...both could've stayed. Bailey certainly deserved to. We had several relievers who could've easily filled the rolls that Weathers/Lincoln/Rhodes are currently occupying.

    I wouldn't be surprised if those first minor league outings are bouts of frustration and flat out anger. I know I would be pissed.

    As for the original question...yes, he will be. Too much talent not to be productive. Now whether it's for the Reds or not...remains to be seen.

    I am going to disagree a little bit here.

    First, I think it was a good idea to sign 3 relievers in the offseason. Maybe Walt picked the wrong names, but it was a good idea to sign 3 relievers because we don't want to be forced to put a kid like Homer on the staff if he is not ready. IMO, the fact that Herrara is on the pitching staff now is proof that we don't really have depth on the staff. I know some people are high on Herrera, but he's clearly not a ML pitcher IMO.

    Homer had to beat out one of Ownings, Masset or Herrara to make the team. He couldn't do it, and that competition isn't exactly stiff. We all know that spring training stats don't necessarily tell the entire story. Walt and Dusty have shown that if a kid deserves a ML roster spot, he will get it and get playing time. So, there was something in spring training that made Walt think that Homer still had work to do.

    If Homer is pouting in AAA instead of working on what he's supposed to be, then I guess all these stories about how he has matured aren't true, and he's pretty much a lost cause, IMO.

    The guy has lost velocity off his fastball. The Reds have been tinkering with him. It's possible that the Reds screwed him up, much like they have done with other young pitchers (eg Coffey, Wagner). I agree that it's not Homer's fault that the Reds aren't exactly the best pitching instructors. But I guess my point is that Homer isn't exactly the same guy he was when the Reds drafted him (or maybe he was overhyped or scouted wrong. Heck, it's even possible that the early radar gun measurements we got on him were bogus, the Reds have given fake radar gun readings out before.).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #21
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Probably not a fair poll in that, unless Bailey has a dramatic flourish this season, he doesn't have a future with the Reds. His last option has been burnt. He either does his business this season or the Reds are going to get him off the pot.
    Yes, that was somewhat intentional. I am wondering if we are going to get something positive out of Homer before he leaves town. So part of your vote involves guessing how long Homer is going to be in town.

    My take is that if Homer does ever produce, it's not going to be in Cincy.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #22
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Too many walks. Homer's minor league walk rate is about 2.5x Greinke's and they gave up the same # of hits. Homer vs Greinke is a good study in stuff versus command and the ability to turn things around after struggles. Stuff was never Homer's problem. He just can't command his pitches and I'm not optimistic that he'll wake up in his mid-20s and discover it. But like M2 said, even if he does become a sufficent MLB pitcher, it won't be for the Reds.
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  9. #23
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Probably not a fair poll in that, unless Bailey has a dramatic flourish this season, he doesn't have a future with the Reds. His last option has been burnt. He either does his business this season or the Reds are going to get him off the pot.
    The Reds can still bring him up and down as many times as they want this year, and still keep him next year until the end of spring training. His burning his last option this year, just means that he has to make the big league club out of spring training next year. He has all the way till then to figure things out and prove that he belongs in the bigs. Plenty of time. Not saying he will, just that his being out of options is not a factor this year.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  10. #24
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    The Reds can still bring him up and down as many times as they want this year, and still keep him next year until the end of spring training. His burning his last option this year, just means that he has to make the big league club out of spring training next year. He has all the way till then to figure things out and prove that he belongs in the bigs. Plenty of time. Not saying he will, just that his being out of options is not a factor this year.
    Yep, good points.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Probably not a fair poll in that, unless Bailey has a dramatic flourish this season, he doesn't have a future with the Reds. His last option has been burnt. He either does his business this season or the Reds are going to get him off the pot.
    I don't think this is such a clear cut situation. Next year he gets it together and sticks or next year he sticks as a swing man or crappy 5th starter like everyone else has. Depsite the general optimism about depth in the minors, as far as legit rotation candidates go (not just back-end hangers on) Homer is all this team has for the next couple years. There are lots of guys who can rotate in and out of the 5th spot but never really rise above that, but really only Homer that can be something more. If his options are burnt and he still hasn't stepped forward, I keep him around and let him be one of those guys for a while and see if he gets it as he grows up. The Reds won't be losing out on anyone that they'll miss if they make a spot for Homer next year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Did Homer become 25 over night ? If not can we all step back on the over expectations that have been Lauded upon him and be patient? I truly understand people wanting to trade him while he still has value honestly. But that has tapered off as have red's fans on him. the return would not be enough at his lowered market value thus stay the course and stay all in.
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  13. #27
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    The Reds can still bring him up and down as many times as they want this year, and still keep him next year until the end of spring training. His burning his last option this year, just means that he has to make the big league club out of spring training next year. He has all the way till then to figure things out and prove that he belongs in the bigs. Plenty of time. Not saying he will, just that his being out of options is not a factor this year.
    Except he doesn't have until the end of next ST to figure it out. If he doesn't claim a rotation slot this year then the Reds are honor-bound to make sure they've got five better options heading into 2010 ... and if they do that, then he's traded for sure.

    Him being out of options is a huge factor this year. He either establishes himself or the team has to move on. He doesn't have time to yo-yo and figure things out, not with the Reds.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #28
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't think this is such a clear cut situation. Next year he gets it together and sticks or next year he sticks as a swing man or crappy 5th starter like everyone else has. Depsite the general optimism about depth in the minors, as far as legit rotation candidates go (not just back-end hangers on) Homer is all this team has for the next couple years. There are lots of guys who can rotate in and out of the 5th spot but never really rise above that, but really only Homer that can be something more. If his options are burnt and he still hasn't stepped forward, I keep him around and let him be one of those guys for a while and see if he gets it as he grows up. The Reds won't be losing out on anyone that they'll miss if they make a spot for Homer next year.
    Only problem is a key to surviving as a crappy 5th starter is that team has the option of punting him to AAA if he's too crappy. A crappy 5th starter that you have to keep in the majors or lose isn't an appealing option.

    And Homer can't pitch out of the pen any more than a cow can go down stairs.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #29
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Only problem is a key to surviving as a crappy 5th starter is that team has the option of punting him to AAA if he's too crappy. A crappy 5th starter that you have to keep in the majors or lose isn't an appealing option.

    And Homer can't pitch out of the pen any more than a cow can go down stairs.
    Yes, that is the biggest problem with Homer. I don't know the reason why he can't pitch out of the pen, but I trust the Reds and posters here about that.

    That's why I don't see Homer here next year unless Arroyo or Harang gets traded. Owings is a much better option than Homer at this point.. Sure, maybe in 3 years, Homer will be a better pitcher than Owings, but I don't see how he's going to get those 3 years of practice here (barring a trade of Harang/Arroyo). Let him do it on someone else's dime.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #30
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Is Homer ever going to be productive for the Reds?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Only problem is a key to surviving as a crappy 5th starter is that team has the option of punting him to AAA if he's too crappy. A crappy 5th starter that you have to keep in the majors or lose isn't an appealing option.

    And Homer can't pitch out of the pen any more than a cow can go down stairs.
    Again. Something that isn't as clear as this strong statement would make the uninformed believe.

    In 2009, I prefer Homer get regular starts in AAA to build innings and give him time to grow up physically and mentally without major league pressure. I don't like the idea of the pen in 2009, but if he struggles as a starter next year, long relief is not the end of the world. The team can use the DL and some rehab stints to get him some work if necessary while getting another crappy arm to fill the 12th man role for a while. Maybe he'll have to pitch in winter ball to aid his development. Many crappy 5th starters have survived by being banished to the bullpen.

    Point is, he is the only guy on the horizon with a hope of replacing Arroyo or Harang in the middle of the rotation (or better) and I wouldn't let his options situation force me into selling low or cutting bait at his young age. I agree that the organization screwed up by burning up his options, but I don't let that force my hand. The 12th man on the staff is going to be a fringe guy anyway. I don't get rid of decent potential to make room for the next completely interchangeable part that the 12th man on the staff is likely to be.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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