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Thread: Obscure Offday Offerings

  1. #1
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Obscure Offday Offerings

    It really should be Obscure Offday Musings, but I an a sucker for alliteration.

    1) Why are errors not counted in OBP? The batter got on base, I think that should be the only criteria. HBP counts, and that is less of a skill than putting the ball in play, and when you consider that many errors are borderline hits, they really should count.

    2) Why does the pitcher who put the runner on base always get full credit (blame) when that runners scores, even if the next pitcher gives up a homer? I think they should do what they do in the NFL, and award half runs in those situations. When a pitchers leaves with a runner on base that he let get on, and another pitcher lets that runner score, both pitchers get a half of a run added to their runs given up total. It's not like baseball stats don't use fraction or decimal points anywhere else? It really won't be any harder to figure out ERA's this way, and I think it would be much fairer.

    3) Shouldn't the Runs Frequency Matrix compiled by Tangotiger be updated? Here it is:

    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html

    It was compiled from data from 1999 to 2002. That was in the heart of the Steroid ERA. I just think it would be interesting to see if anything has changed in terms of runs frequency now that the game has changed. During that period, MLB teams averaged 4.92 runs a game, while during the last 4 years, they averaged 4.74 runs a game. Not a huge difference, but one that could show up in a new runs frequency matrix.

    Anyway, just curious....
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    Member RedsFan75's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    In regards to #2. Best thing you have is the stat Inherited Runners scored...

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bu...herited_runner

    Example here's David Weathers page
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...01-pitch.shtml

    Last year he inherited 15 (IR)and allowed 2 (IS) to score.

    But you're right it still affects the original guys ERA
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    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    2) Why does the pitcher who put the runner on base always get full credit (blame) when that runners scores, even if the next pitcher gives up a homer? I think they should do what they do in the NFL, and award half runs in those situations. When a pitchers leaves with a runner on base that he let get on, and another pitcher lets that runner score, both pitchers get a half of a run added to their runs given up total. It's not like baseball stats don't use fraction or decimal points anywhere else? It really won't be any harder to figure out ERA's this way, and I think it would be much fairer.
    I'm with you on that one. I've never understood the current setup, other than the ease of not using fractions. I'd actually take it a step further: a runner on first is 1/4 run for the starter and 3/4 for the reliever, a runner on second is 1/2 and 1/2, and a runner on third is 3/4 for the starter and 1/4 for the reliever. That way the pitcher is held responsible for his percentage of the run he enabled.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    2) Why does the pitcher who put the runner on base always get full credit (blame) when that runners scores, even if the next pitcher gives up a homer? I think they should do what they do in the NFL, and award half runs in those situations. When a pitchers leaves with a runner on base that he let get on, and another pitcher lets that runner score, both pitchers get a half of a run added to their runs given up total. It's not like baseball stats don't use fraction or decimal points anywhere else? It really won't be any harder to figure out ERA's this way, and I think it would be much fairer.

    3) Shouldn't the Runs Frequency Matrix compiled by Tangotiger be updated? Here it is:

    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html

    It was compiled from data from 1999 to 2002. That was in the heart of the Steroid ERA. I just think it would be interesting to see if anything has changed in terms of runs frequency now that the game has changed. During that period, MLB teams averaged 4.92 runs a game, while during the last 4 years, they averaged 4.74 runs a game. Not a huge difference, but one that could show up in a new runs frequency matrix.

    Anyway, just curious....
    2) Wouldn't you want to weight the runs scored. For example a pitcher gives up an inning opening double followed by a single and leaves runners on the corners with 0 outs. He comes in gets the double play and a strike out but should he still get charged with a 1/2 run?

    3) I was listening to ESPN Radio a week or so ago and Doug Gotleib brought up an interesting point. It was how not post-steroid era young players will play a much more crucial role to each teams win loss record. Even though the difference between 4.92 to 4.74 isn't that much it still is roughly a run every 5 games. Are teams going to score less runs in this era? Will teams send more players to the DL? Will an improved defense help more in the W-L column now more than in the past decade? We have seen a dramatic reduction in the HR totals for each player. Hitting 50 hrs in a season now is a feat, in the past it may get you into the top 10 in you league.

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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    I like what you're saying there Danny. We could also add more to it, say a runner on 1st with 2 out that reliever gets credit for the whole run.
    In those things which we commit to practice we can master, and with mastery we have the freedom to use these skills whenever we desire, without this practice we are slaves to our inability.

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    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    I'm with you on that one. I've never understood the current setup, other than the ease of not using fractions. I'd actually take it a step further: a runner on first is 1/4 run for the starter and 3/4 for the reliever, a runner on second is 1/2 and 1/2, and a runner on third is 3/4 for the starter and 1/4 for the reliever. That way the pitcher is held responsible for his percentage of the run he enabled.
    The traditionalist in me doesn't care for this, but the mathematician in me likes this a lot!
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

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    The wino and I know bucksfan's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    I'm with you on that one. I've never understood the current setup, other than the ease of not using fractions. I'd actually take it a step further: a runner on first is 1/4 run for the starter and 3/4 for the reliever, a runner on second is 1/2 and 1/2, and a runner on third is 3/4 for the starter and 1/4 for the reliever. That way the pitcher is held responsible for his percentage of the run he enabled.
    Exactly how I always envisioned it, Danny! I agree with the point Next44 and you raise regarding the inherited runners.

    I also have considered the point mentioned about errors and OBP, although in the end I have decided it didn't belong in the calculation. My reasoning was that since an "official" decision was made about a play (that it should have been made and resulted in an out) that there should not be another measure that considers it as positive. In essence, the way I am seeing it anyways, it would be giving undue credit to "luck" in too many instances. As we all know, there is certain amount of luck involved in all of it, with hard hit balls right at someone, spectacular catches, dribblers finding a hole, etc... but in the case where a play can actually be analyzed and a decision reached that an out should have been made, I support couting that against OBP, even if in some cases the judgments are questionable.
    "I'm virtually free to do whatever I want, but I try to remember so is everybody else..." - Todd Snider

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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    I'd like to see something to take care of the "alleged unearned run" to divide the pitchers who suffer an unearned run and limit the damage, from the pitchers who suffer an unearned run and give up many more "unearned" runs in the inning.

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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    It really should be Obscure Offday Musings, but I an a sucker for alliteration.

    1) Why are errors not counted in OBP? The batter got on base, I think that should be the only criteria. HBP counts, and that is less of a skill than putting the ball in play, and when you consider that many errors are borderline hits, they really should count.
    Do faster players get more reach on errors?

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Somewhat relevant, I think that unearned runs resulting from errors by the pitcher should count as earned runs.

  12. #11
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Somewhat relevant, I think that unearned runs resulting from errors by the pitcher should count as earned runs.

    I disagree. ERA should measure pitching results only, not fielding. Even if the pitcher is responsible for the error, it is still the result of a fielding mistake and does not speak to the effectiveness of his pitching.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    I disagree. ERA should measure pitching results only, not fielding. Even if the pitcher is responsible for the error, it is still the result of a fielding mistake and does not speak to the effectiveness of his pitching.
    Good point. You've changed my mind. We were basically talking about the difference between the effectiveness of pitching and the effectiveness of the pitcher. If we're not going to find a way to incorporate a pitcher's hitting ability, then I guess it doesn't make sense to include his fielding ability either.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Good point. You've changed my mind. We were basically talking about the difference between the effectiveness of pitching and the effectiveness of the pitcher. If we're not going to find a way to incorporate a pitcher's hitting ability, then I guess it doesn't make sense to include his fielding ability either.
    Well why not incorporate a pitcher's hitting? Just to throw it out there but how much net diff is there when Micah pitches as opposed to a hapless pitcher at the plate? If say a pitcher's hitting produces .6 runs per game and another produces .1 using the runs scored formula doesn't that mean pitcher A is just as effective in the totality of the game when his era is 4.50 as pitcher B is when his era is 4.00? He effectively cancels the difference with his bat or does he? Batting ninth pitchers won't see more than 1 or 2 at bats in a start usually, especially if they are out of there before the 7th. Interesting idea though - measuring the net value of a pitcher by adding his fielding and hitting into the equation for a "Net" effectiveness as an overall measure of his total impact on a game

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Well why not incorporate a pitcher's hitting? Just to throw it out there but how much net diff is there when Micah pitches as opposed to a hapless pitcher at the plate? If say a pitcher's hitting produces .6 runs per game and another produces .1 using the runs scored formula doesn't that mean pitcher A is just as effective in the totality of the game when his era is 4.50 as pitcher B is when his era is 4.00? He effectively cancels the difference with his bat or does he? Batting ninth pitchers won't see more than 1 or 2 at bats in a start usually, especially if they are out of there before the 7th. Interesting idea though - measuring the net value of a pitcher by adding his fielding and hitting into the equation for a "Net" effectiveness as an overall measure of his total impact on a game
    I like the idea, but I was strictly talking about ERA. 'Overall effectiveness' or whatever you would call it would be a completely different stat.

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    So long old friend rotnoid's Avatar
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    Re: Obscure Offday Offerings

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Good point. You've changed my mind. We were basically talking about the difference between the effectiveness of pitching and the effectiveness of the pitcher. If we're not going to find a way to incorporate a pitcher's hitting ability, then I guess it doesn't make sense to include his fielding ability either.
    Hence the difference in a wild pitch and a passed ball with relation to earned runs. It's still subjective though.

    I like the idea of trying to tie in something like ERA, fielding and hitting to show overall effectiveness. I'm sure it would make guys like Maddux even more impressive in the numbers world.
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