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Thread: Willy T and OBP

  1. #31
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd say .350 is Taveras' break-even point. He runs enough to give himself the functional equivalent of 200 TB in full-time work. That would earn his money.

    Weird thing about him is how few triples he hits. You'd figure with his speed, he'd be good for 10 year, but he couldn't even hit triples in Colorado (which has a huge OF).
    For arguments sake Jimmy Rollins is a career .332 OBP. So it goes to show that you can obp less than .350 and still win an MVP.

    For the most part I have been impressed with Taveras overall game this season. When he has gotten on base he is dangerous. He knows how to run the bases and creates havoc. Just watching yesterdays game I was impressed how he went from first to third on a bad pick off throw and you could see him rounding second base and catching the 3rd base coach to determine whether to stop or not.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    After seeing Dickerson's defense, I am really glad we signed Wily instead of putting all our chips on Dickerson. Haven't given up on Dickerson yet, but I'm glad we have options.
    Defense is important when assessing Taveras' overall contribution to the club. He's a centerfielder, after all. But I expect this to be routinely ignored, as folks are just waiting for WT to slump so they can throw an anti-Taveras posting party.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    For arguments sake Jimmy Rollins is a career .332 OBP. So it goes to show that you can obp less than .350 and still win an MVP.

    For the most part I have been impressed with Taveras overall game this season. When he has gotten on base he is dangerous. He knows how to run the bases and creates havoc. Just watching yesterdays game I was impressed how he went from first to third on a bad pick off throw and you could see him rounding second base and catching the 3rd base coach to determine whether to stop or not.
    Shenanigans (sp?). Rollins hit 30 HRs that year and had a .531 slugging percentage. Probably .175 better than Willy can do.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  5. #34
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    For arguments sake Jimmy Rollins is a career .332 OBP. So it goes to show that you can obp less than .350 and still win an MVP.
    Rollins' career SLG is .439, just over 100 points higher than Taveras'. In his MVP year, Rollins went .296/.344/.531/.875 and played good defense at SS. Rollins didn't deserve the MVP that year anyway (he wasn't even the best player on his team, let alone in the league), but I can guarantee you that he wouldn't have gotten a single vote had he put up a Taveras-like SLG of .340.

  6. #35
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    I think it's pretty clear that Willy can't sustain his current walk rate because pitchers simply won't let him.

    For his career he's taken a little under 53% of all pitches he's seen. This season he's taking 65% of them.

    We're probably looking at a small sample size effect where he's just had a run of PAs against guys who weren't throwing strikes to him for whatever reason (remember there are also several others in the lineup with walk rates that are outliers compared to their careers). Even if this was a new approach on Willy's part, it won't take long for pitchers to absolutely pound his strike zone into submission forcing him to swing (or bunt).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #36
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    I don't think he can control his walk rates, though, not unless he demontrates that he's at least something of a threat to hit for extra bases or happens to luck into facing a lot of pitchers with really poor control. The absolute last thing any pitcher ever wants to do is walk a guy with speed and no power. The Reggie Willits thing might work for half a season when nobody knows who the heck Reggie Willits is yet, but Taveras has been around already.
    A fair point. 12% is probably too aggressive, but he can stay north of 10% -- as guys like Figgins and Luis Castillo have done.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #37
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Defense is important when assessing Taveras' overall contribution to the club. He's a centerfielder, after all. But I expect this to be routinely ignored, as folks are just waiting for WT to slump so they can throw an anti-Taveras posting party.
    I think a good many don't see Taveras' defense as a plus. In other words, it's not good enough to make the offensive trade off an advantage. That's probably a large motivation behind focusing on his offense.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #38
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think a good many don't see Taveras' defense as a plus. In other words, it's not good enough to make the offensive trade off an advantage. That's probably a large motivation behind focusing on his offense.
    Willy is fine in CF. He's not a great defender, but his speed gets him to balls that he should get and many others would miss if they got the awful reads off the bat that he does. I don't think he gets to a lot of balls that other decent CF would not though. His poor jumps negate his speed the same way his speed makes up for many of his poor jumps. His defense won't cost the team a lot of runs or games and it won't save many either. In the past he's had a pretty good arm, but its not looked so good so far.

    Jojo has it right. If he hits, his defense won't detract from his offense. If he doesn't hit, his defense doesn't make up for it.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #39
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think it's pretty clear that Willy can't sustain his current walk rate because pitchers simply won't let him.

    For his career he's taken a little under 53% of all pitches he's seen. This season he's taking 65% of them.

    We're probably looking at a small sample size effect where he's just had a run of PAs against guys who weren't throwing strikes to him for whatever reason (remember there are also several others in the lineup with walk rates that are outliers compared to their careers). Even if this was a new approach on Willy's part, it won't take long for pitchers to absolutely pound his strike zone into submission forcing him to swing (or bunt).
    But it shows what Taveras can do when he is on. He has made a positive impact on this team through the first couple of weeks of the season. There is still a long way to go but it shows if Taveras can keep up a decent OBP what kind of asset he can be for the Reds.

    What gets kind of annoying is everything Taveras does continues to get discounted. So far he has been the most consistent RH bat. Even Edwin, and his new plate approach, has an OBP in the low .300's. He isn't hitting and pitchers are figuring a way to get him out. Phillips cant hit the broad side of a barn right now. I have a feeling that Taveras will be less prone to huge peaks and valleys than both Edwin and Phillips have shown to be.

  11. #40
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    But it shows what Taveras can do when he is on. He has made a positive impact on this team through the first couple of weeks of the season. There is still a long way to go but it shows if Taveras can keep up a decent OBP what kind of asset he can be for the Reds.

    What gets kind of annoying is everything Taveras does continues to get discounted. So far he has been the most consistent RH bat. Even Edwin, and his new plate approach, has an OBP in the low .300's. He isn't hitting and pitchers are figuring a way to get him out. Phillips cant hit the broad side of a barn right now. I have a feeling that Taveras will be less prone to huge peaks and valleys than both Edwin and Phillips have shown to be.
    I don't know. After April of 08, Taveras went into a huge valley. Death Valley maybe.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #41
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    I think a good many don't see Taveras' defense as a plus. In other words, it's not good enough to make the offensive trade off an advantage. That's probably a large motivation behind focusing on his offense.
    Put Dickerson in CF and ??? in left and I think most folks would acknowledge Taveras in CF and CD in left is a solid plus for the OF defense. Keep in mind that there are arguments saying that measuring OF defense in Coors is sketchy, given the differences in how the ball carries there vs other parks (especially for a CF, who's got to track balls that are in the air longer).

    Small sample size so far, but I think the eyeball evidence on WT so far indicates he covers a lot of ground side to side, and may be a little gunshy near the wall on balls over his head. Don't have a read on his arm yet.

    In other words, it's not good enough to make the offensive trade off an advantage
    This is a matter of opinion, not fact.
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  13. #42
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    If they want him to maintain a decent OBP they need to give the guy some rest occasionally. Working the count takes an extreme amount of concentration and it causes one to be fatigued.

    The closet analogy i can think of is golf....it's relatively easy to keep your concentration and swing together for a certain number of holes, but has the day wears on you find yourself lacking the shot preparation that needed to maintain a good score. Things begin to erode in your game. The thing is you don't notice it by watching a guy go through it, but everything in your game becomes so much harder.

    Getting good at-bats takes extreme concentration. When you are tired you tend to say "heck with it...i'll just hope some things work out". A guy like Wily T. needs rest to maintain his approach. He'll never look tired/fatigued, build the rest in and maybe he'll give you a .370 obp.

  14. #43
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    But it shows what Taveras can do when he is on. He has made a positive impact on this team through the first couple of weeks of the season. There is still a long way to go but it shows if Taveras can keep up a decent OBP what kind of asset he can be for the Reds.

    What gets kind of annoying is everything Taveras does continues to get discounted. So far he has been the most consistent RH bat. Even Edwin, and his new plate approach, has an OBP in the low .300's. He isn't hitting and pitchers are figuring a way to get him out. Phillips cant hit the broad side of a barn right now. I have a feeling that Taveras will be less prone to huge peaks and valleys than both Edwin and Phillips have shown to be.
    I don't think anyone is poo pooing WT. It's just a discussion about whether we're seeing a real skill (i.e. something that will generate repeatable production) or we're seeing some happy randomness.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #44
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    What gets kind of annoying is everything Taveras does continues to get discounted.
    Get used to it. Just enjoy his play and let others stew.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #45
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    Re: Willy T and OBP

    If they want him to maintain a decent OBP they need to give the guy some rest occasionally. Working the count takes an extreme amount of concentration and it causes one to be fatigued.

    The closet analogy i can think of is golf....it's relatively easy to keep your concentration and swing together for a certain number of holes, but has the day wears on you find yourself lacking the shot preparation that needed to maintain a good score. Things begin to erode in your game. The thing is you don't notice it by watching a guy go through it, but everything in your game becomes so much harder.

    Getting good at-bats takes extreme concentration. When you are tired you tend to say "heck with it...i'll just hope some things work out". A guy like Wily T. needs rest to maintain his approach. He'll never look tired/fatigued, build the rest in and maybe he'll give you a .370 obp.
    Agree 100%. And beyond his ability to grind out good ABs, his ability to steal bases and leg out IF hits will be compromised by playing on a 150+-start pace. I think he's got to be more around 135-140 starts.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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