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Thread: I'm starting to worry ...

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    I'm starting to worry ...

    about Arroyo. has been awful the first two innings.

    But then I worry about a lot of things
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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  3. #2
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    I'm worried about Votto. He hasn't gotten a hit yet today

  4. #3
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    I'm worried about Votto. He hasn't gotten a hit yet today
    I'm worried that Willy T will be rusty by tomorrow
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #4
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    I'm worried about all that Thai food I ate last night....

  6. #5
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'm worried about all that Thai food I ate last night....
    LOL, me too!
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    does anybody think its time to give Nix a few starts in left over Dickerson?
    He's striking out a bunch.
    "Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser."

  8. #7
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by vic715 View Post
    does anybody think its time to give Nix a few starts in left over Dickerson?
    He's striking out a bunch.
    I'm Ok with it. I like Dickerson a lot but he's still feeling his way around his AB's. He'll be fine but I am Ok with giving Nix 12-15 AB's in a series or two.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    I can understand giving a guy a day off to let him reset a bit. But beyond that, I've never understood how benching a guy is supposed to help him get back on track. The Reds need Dickerson to get as many PA as possible this year so they know what they have with him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    I'm Ok with it. I like Dickerson a lot but he's still feeling his way around his AB's. He'll be fine but I am Ok with giving Nix 12-15 AB's in a series or two.

    Dickerson will be fine when he moves to his rightful position -- fourth outfielder who can play all three positions.

    Just look at the track record. The minor leagues. Last September. This year. Talented player but with very high strikeout percentage.

    Dickerson has had some problems defensively too, I'll assume that is just an adjustment. But unless he makes more contact, he's going to have a problem.

    As for Nix, sure, give him some at bats against righties, but that doesn't change the fact that the Reds still need to improve left field.

    And third base ain't looking too good either.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-25-2009 at 04:21 PM.

  11. #10
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    If you're looking for a guy who strikes out less, Nix likely isn't the answer.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    If you're looking for a guy who strikes out less, Nix likely isn't the answer.
    I don't think he's the long term answer either I'm just kicking around ideas to make this offense kick in. I'd even consider Hernandez hitting cleanup and
    moving EE and Phillips to 7th and 8th to take a little heat off.
    "Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser."

  13. #12
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Is this one of the days when we're great, or is this one of the other days?

  14. #13
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Jojo's two-step plan of action:

    #1) Thank the Gods of baseball that the Reds have won 9 games.

    Why? Because on any given night, the Reds have had offensive blackholes in 5 out of 8 positions in the lineup (we won't count the pitcher's spot). Speaking of pitchers, Volquez is walking 9 per 9 and Arroyo has been a 5th starter. In other words, if we're not grateful for this merciful gift of 9 wins, we might risk death by volcanic eruption or tsumami.

    Code:
     	        PA	 AVG   	 OBP   	 SLG   	wOBA	BABIP
    B Phillips	67	0.161	0.29	0.232	0.271	0.178
    E Encarnacion	68	0.145	0.319	0.218	0.275	0.189
    R Hernandez	50	0.234	0.28	0.34	0.291	0.244
    A Gonzalez	49	0.152	0.2	0.261	0.223	0.176
    C Dickerson	48	0.195	0.32	0.341	0.313	0.280
    J Hairston	35	0.161	0.257	0.258	0.262	0.167
    #2) Barring a trade for a major talent that the Reds would have made regardless, the Reds should just sit tight and keep doling out PAs to many of the guys above.

    Why? It's unlikely that any of these guys are this bad. For instance simple regression to the mean suggests a guy like EE should post a wOBA of .360 over his next 70 PAs. Likewise, one would expect Phillips/Hernandez to post wOBAs around .330. Even turkeys like Hairston and Gonzo should be expected to benefit from a regression towards their true talent level.

    The Reds are above .500 despite significant underachievement.

    Looking at the big picture, this season is only frustrating if you think this roster is playoff caliber. Otherwise, it's been a pretty good story so far.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #14
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Pecota estimated playoff chances based upon the season thus far:

    Code:
    Average wins by position in NL Central:  100.2 91.4 84.6 77.9 69.5 59.8
    NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
    Cardinals         12    5   .516   88.7   73.3   24.77377   15.18665   39.96041
    Pirates            9    7   .396   67.5   94.5     .74436     .75053    1.49489
    Reds               9    7   .493   83.4   78.6   12.08846    9.83478   21.92324
    Cubs               8    7   .571   94.6   67.4   49.34481   14.42735   63.77216
    Brewers            7    9   .507   83.5   78.5   12.62607    9.71337   22.33944
    Astros             6   11   .403   65.6   96.4     .42254     .47072     .89326
    A 22% chance to make the playoffs doesn't seem so disheartening does it?
    Last edited by jojo; 04-25-2009 at 06:25 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #15
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: I'm starting to worry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Dickerson will be fine when he moves to his rightful position -- fourth outfielder who can play all three positions.

    Just look at the track record. The minor leagues. Last September. This year. Talented player but with very high strikeout percentage.

    Dickerson has had some problems defensively too, I'll assume that is just an adjustment. But unless he makes more contact, he's going to have a problem.

    As for Nix, sure, give him some at bats against righties, but that doesn't change the fact that the Reds still need to improve left field.

    And third base ain't looking too good either.
    At this point I would have to agree. I really like Dickerson, but to me, he seems like he is trying to figure out where he fits. As a September call up, you know where you stand and every AB you get excited about. April and May are a different story. I do believe he can play everyday. Just not sure he has it upstairs right now. Having said all that, I would like to see Dickerson as the 4th OF if the Reds were to acquire a legit cleanup hitter/outfielder. Who that mystery player is I don't know.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08


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