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Thread: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

  1. #391
    6 months of heartbreak Bob Borkowski's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by Red in Chicago View Post
    Didn't even top 30k today? Pretty sad.
    Actually I thought the total for the 3 game series (92,000 and change) was pretty good for the Reds in the month of April.

    Typically the months of April and September are slim pickens for Cincy attendance-wise.

    Some people are starting to jump on the bandwagon.
    I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.

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  3. #392
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    I was on vacation for a couple of weeks starting the day after opening day. Combined with trying to catch up at work I've not been engaged in the season until yesterday. Went to the game.

    Some observations:

    I'll get it out of the way: Tavaras was exactly what I expected to see. Two ground outs and his only time on base was legging out a hit to deep in the hole at SS. While it did add another run it had zero impact on winning the game and completely fulfills the empty "speed and defense" label with which he as tagged. Had a nice-ish catch in CF. I'm really glad he's been focusing on his OBP and has had a good start. Will he keep it up all year? Doubt it. Hope I'm wrong, but doubt it.

    Phillips: This "clean up" farce has to stop. He's a talented hitter but continuing to cast him as a slugger only fosters him swinging for the fences. His first AB he launched a mighty blast that landed about 3' in front of the plate. This guy has to go through some sort of underground "patience at the plate" school where they water-board him into not swinging at everything. Otherwise 3 years from now when our new 2B takes the field we'll all be saying "man, I thought BPhil was really going to be something".

    Laynce Nix: He hit some balls very hard but right at people. Also, he spells his name with a Y.

    Votto: One intense guy. Does he ever smile? He might just become a baseball star with a brighter future than Bruce. Still waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy to early to tell, but that is one talented kid.

    Owings: His performance was good and obviously effective. But I was not overly blown away by his stuff. By the 2nd and 3rd trip through the lineup, neither was Atlanta. They started hitting the ball much harder and much further. It didn't translate to runs, but they obviously were getting him figured out.

    Janish: Stopgap. Enough said. Please Walt, get us a real shortstop.

    It was great to see a win. It was a pretty lifeless game with the exception of the homers/double. But nonetheless it was a win and a good time at the ballpark.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  4. #393
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    What about Janish's .438 OBP and his near-perfect defensive chops has you believing he's a stopgap?

    I have my doubts too, but he's hardly been a drag on the team thus far.

  5. #394
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What about Janish's .438 OBP and his near-perfect defensive chops has you believing he's a stopgap?

    I have my doubts too, but he's hardly been a drag on the team thus far.
    I don't think he's been a drag on the team at all. In fact, he'd probably make a nice platoon given the right combination of players.

    Put him out there every day, for 162 games, and he'll have "drag on the team" written all over him. His .428OBP is the result of small sample size and a hit rate he can't sustain. He's had zero walks in 14 AB's. So unless he continues to hit .357 he's going to be yet another dud on a lineup that already struggles. I don't see that happening, do you?

    He was, IMO, over matched at the plate yesterday by a less than "powerhouse" pitcher. It's obviously wholly subjective on my part and based on an even smaller sample size, but I saw a guy that would kill you at the plate over the course of an entire season.

    He does have a very nice glove, however.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  6. #395
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    My take is that I'm not nearly as bearish on this offense as virtually every other poster on this site.

    And having an elite defender at short (over 130 games, maybe he's not an elite defender, but he's looking that way in the early going) is never a drag on a team, even if he OB .300. But I think he can easily sustain a .325 OBP.

    In short, there are problems with this team (not as many as most teams this decade, but there are some long-term concerns--mostly with the starting pitching and the inability to throw strikes: surprise!), but Janish doesn't break the top 20.

  7. #396
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Janish isn't a legit major league bat and his defense isn't good enough to carry the wood as a starter.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #397
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Janish isn't a legit major league bat and his defense isn't good enough to carry the wood as a starter.
    You've said that once or a thousand times.

  9. #398
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    In short, there are problems with this team (not as many as most teams this decade, but there are some long-term concerns--mostly with the starting pitching and the inability to throw strikes: surprise!), but Janish doesn't break the top 20.
    I'd put getting a solid short stop in the important category.

    But since there aren't many rock-solid short stops floating around and the prospects cost talent, I think a workable solution could include Mr. Janish. It would be interesting to see if Walt could get creative and find a suitable platoon partner for him and work it that way. Minimize the exposure of both and keep some flexibility on the team.

    "Stop gap" has a connotation that sounds like I think he's horrible. I don't think he's horrible (unless he suddenly gets big time playing time). Assuming he's utilized carefully, and thus far he seems to have been, he can be a useful part for a couple of years.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Pessimist stat of the day: the Reds have issued 81 BBs on the season; only the Brewers (a dreadful pitching staff) and the Indians (again, dreadful) have issued more (82).

    No amount of offense is going to matter unless this pitching staff can figure out a way to throw a leather ball across that chunk of plastic. That BB/9 rate is totally unsustainable. Especially in GABP.

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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You've said that once or a thousand times.
    I guess because it needs restated every so often?

    Here are Janish's minor league numbers: .257/.341/.383, OPS:724;

    Here's their translation into major league equivalents: .202/.266/.292, OPS: .558;

    Here's what he's projected to do in '09 based upon a survey of 6 projection systems: .245/.314/.362, OPS: .676; wOBA: .302;

    Based upon that projection, his glove would have to be worth +17 runs to cancel out his bat over 600 PAs worth of playing time....just to be an average shortstop.

    Given that much leather, he would've been the best defensive shortstop in the game last season and a top three defender on any given year. He's not that good defensively.

    He's a useful defensive replacement while getting a few starts against lefties. But as a starting shortstop, he'd be a liability.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #401
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I guess because it needs restated every so often?

    Here are Janish's minor league numbers: .257/.341/.383, OPS:724;

    Here's their translation into major league equivalents: .202/.266/.292, OPS: .558;

    Here's what he's projected to do in '09 based upon a survey of 6 projection systems: .245/.314/.362, OPS: .676; wOBA: .302;

    Based upon that projection, his glove would have to be worth +17 runs to cancel out his bat over 600 PAs worth of playing time....just to be an average shortstop.

    Given that much leather, he would've been the best defensive shortstop in the game last season and a top three defender on any given year. He's not that good defensively.

    He's a useful defensive replacement while getting a few starts against lefties. But as a starting shortstop, he'd be a liability.
    I think we all know that he's not a starting shortstop. Does everyone on a roster have to be a starter, and an average or above starter, to help a franchise? He's not hurting the team in his current role.

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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think we all know that he's not a starting shortstop. Does everyone on a roster have to be a starter, and an average or above starter, to help a franchise? He's not hurting the team in his current role.
    I was responding to this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    And having an elite defender at short (over 130 games, maybe he's not an elite defender, but he's looking that way in the early going) is never a drag on a team, even if he OB .300. But I think he can easily sustain a .325 OBP.

    In short, there are problems with this team (not as many as most teams this decade, but there are some long-term concerns--mostly with the starting pitching and the inability to throw strikes: surprise!), but Janish doesn't break the top 20.
    Sorry if I misunderstood your point.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Based upon that projection
    Players improve, players get worse, players get hurt, talent pools deepen or thin. Some players offer positive intangibles, some negative.

    We already know there's some softness in minor league projections and in defensive ratings.

    You act as if these projections are reckoned on stone tablets. They're not.

    You've said that once or a thousand times.
    I know. Projection systems indicate you can expect at least one "let me tell you how inadequate this player is" post from this poster for every optimistic thread about a borderline Reds player.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #404
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 4/26/09 - Reds vs Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Players improve, players get worse, players get hurt, talent pools deepen or thin. Some players offer positive intangibles, some negative.

    We already know there's some softness in minor league projections and in defensive ratings.

    You act as if these projections are reckoned on stone tablets. They're not.



    I know. Projection systems indicate you can expect at least one "let me tell you how inadequate this player is" post from this poster for every optimistic thread about a borderline Reds player.
    Janish will be 27 this year. There is no hidden agenda and there is nothing dogmatic, hateful or "a priori" about the conclusion that:

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo;
    He's a useful defensive replacement while getting a few starts against lefties. But as a starting shortstop, he'd be a liability.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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