Fay: Bruce a 40 home run guy?

[OnBaseMachine]

Bruce a 40 home run guy?
Posted by JohnFay at 4/27/2009 10:34 AM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Jay Bruce has 19 home runs in a little less than his last half of a season. He hit seven in August, seven in September and has five so far in April. Scouts talk about his electric bat. But I don't think many people projected him as a 40 home run guy. He's not pulling to the ball to do it. His first home run yesterday nearly hit the foul pole in left. At least one of the other four was to the opposite field.

What kind of numbers do you project for him?

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...cincinnati.com

[Sea Ray]

I think he can hit 40 but I don't want him to change his approach to do it. I'm sure he'll have some 40 HR years in his career

[Falls City Beer]

As long as he's healthy, he'll hit 40. He won't have to change his game to do it either. Power is his game despite his youth.

[Root Down]

I think he can hit 40 though he is a natural line drive hitter. I really hope when he posts larger numbers than he or anyone else expected that he doesn't try to become a home-run hitter (see BP).

[Falls City Beer]

I think he can hit 40 though he is a natural line drive hitter. I really hope when he posts larger numbers than he or anyone else expected that he doesn't try to become a home-run hitter (see BP).

Bruce doesn't need a dead-pull swing to hit it out (unlike BP), so his feeling the need to change his approach is pretty unlikely.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bruce doesn't need a dead-pull swing to hit it out (unlike BP), so his feeling the need to change his approach is pretty unlikely.

Yep. Bruce has great power too all parts of the field. Two of his five homers have been to left field.

I agree that he has a few 40 homer seasons in him. This year? Probably not. I'm expecting around 30 from Bruce this season.

[bucksfan2]

If he tries to no. If he continues to swing the way he is right now then yes. He showed yesterday that he has enough power to hit it out to LF and also crush one to RC. If he takes the approach of driving the ball to LC, like Votto does, then Bruce will likely be in the 40 HR range. If he starts the Edwin pull everything then he will likely be a 30 HR guy.

[RedEye]

Whether he is a 30 or 40 HR guy is less important to me than whether he starts walking more. 30-40 HR with a .350+ OBP is much more imposing than 30-40 HR with a .310 OBP. If we're lucky, he'll develop into a patient slugger who also hits for high average.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Whether he is a 30 or 40 HR guy is less important to me than whether he starts walking more. 30-40 HR with a .350+ OBP is much more imposing than 30-40 HR with a .310 OBP. If we're lucky, he'll develop into a patient slugger who also hits for high average.

I feel the same way. I haven't been overly impressed with his patience, but he's still so young that I'm assuring myself that he will mature into a more patient approach at the plate.

[RedsManRick]

Power wise, he's more Berkman or Braun than Fielder or Dunn. I think he's a regular 30-35 HR guy with maybe a few 40 HR seasons in him.

[JaxRed]

On the Braves broadcast yesterday they indicated Reds managment thinks at this point that Bruce has never met a pitch he didn't like.

[membengal]

Were they bitter when they said it? B/c Bruce, while working on strike zone command at his tender age, has never been the free-swinging lady of the evening that Francouer has been...

[dougdirt]

On the Braves broadcast yesterday they indicated Reds managment thinks at this point that Bruce has never met a pitch he didn't like.

Jay goes through stretches of hot and cold. Interestingly enough, when he is hot, his plate discipline is quite strong. When he is cold, he is swinging at everything. With maturity and experience hopefully he figures it out and learns to consistently wait for his pitch rather than going for the pitchers pitch.

[M2]

Bruce hit 31 HR last season (10 of them in AAA). He hit 26 HR the season before. So 40 HR wouldn't be all that stunning from him.

His doubles totals dropped off sharply last year and it would be nice to see that rebound.

Yet he'll be violating plenty of baseballs this year, which brings me to where the next phase of where Jay Bruce's career is headed - before this season ends, the plight of the Reds will be all his fault.

[OnBaseMachine]

Jay goes through stretches of hot and cold. Interestingly enough, when he is hot, his plate discipline is quite strong. When he is cold, he is swinging at everything. With maturity and experience hopefully he figures it out and learns to consistently wait for his pitch rather than going for the pitchers pitch.

Yep.

If you go back and read some of the recent articles on Bruce, one of the first things he always mentions is how he needs to improve his plate discipline. Like Doug said, when Bruce is right, his plate discipline is very good. When he struggles is when he starts swinging at bad pitches and getting himself out. By all accounts, Bruce is a very hard worker so it wouldn't surprise me if his plate discipline is a strength two years from now.