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Thread: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

  1. #1
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    Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    What say you?

    I guess I'd arbitrarily base this on the likelihood to win, say, 50-100 games in the big leagues, regardless of current readiness.

    My uneducated, all-but-random guess, at the moment:

    1. Bailey
    2. Lotzkar
    3. Sulbaran
    4. Wood
    5. Thompson
    6. Fairel
    7. Horst
    8. Maloney
    9. Hildenbrandt
    10. Buck

    Also considered: Guillon, Lecure, Snowden, Carroll, Ramirez, Viola (who apparently is no longer a starter but maybe should be) and Stewart (who is currently a starter but apparently shouldn't be)

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Does Bailey still have prospect status in terms of his service time? Basically, would he still be eligible for rookie of the year consideration?

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Like it. 4 lefties in the top 10 -- there's something new.

    My general take is that apart from the "special" guys a more advanced pitcher is a better prospect than a less advanced one. So:

    1. Bailey
    2. Sulbaran (looks pretty special to me)
    3. Lecure
    4. Buck
    5. Ramirez (still like him, though he's been up and down as a minor leaguer)
    6. Maloney
    7. Lotzkar
    8. Wood
    9. Fairel
    10. Ravin

    Could be there next: Horst, Castro, Partch
    Not healthy enough: Thompson (also why Lotzkar is at #7)

    Soon to be top 3, at least: 09 first-round draft choice
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Bailey isn't a prospect and not ROY eligible.

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bailey isn't a prospect and not ROY eligible.
    That's what I thought, and it makes the organizational pitching depth look a bit weaker.

  7. #6
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    I will go with 10 guys that I won't put in order for right now because I am not sure where everyone is health wise.

    Juan Carlos Sulbaran
    Matt Maloney
    Jordan Smith
    Daryl Thompson
    Kyle Lotzkar
    Dallas Buck
    Travis Wood
    Jeremy Horst
    Evan Hildenbrandt
    Ramon Ramirez

  8. #7
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    He may not be ROY eligible, but he's in the minors with essentially no major league service time, so certainly should be on our prospect lists.

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Like it. 4 lefties in the top 10 -- there's something new.

    My general take is that apart from the "special" guys a more advanced pitcher is a better prospect than a less advanced one.
    I'd agree with that. The less-advanced guy still has to get to the point where the more-advanced guy already is.

    I also agree that relative health plays a huge part in this. For somebody like Lotzkar, it's the difference between the top of the list and the bottom.

    As to Bailey's prospect status . . . Whether or not he's an "official" prospect, he started the season in the minor leagues. For these purposes, I consider him to be a minor-leaguer whom the Reds are still trying to develop into a major-leaguer. That, to me, is a "prospect."

    I'm probably giving in too quickly on Ramirez. A month ago, based on his call-up last year, I'd have had him in the top five. I couldn't believe that he wasn't given a fair shot to make the Reds' rotation in the spring. But something seems to have compromised him between September and now.

    Lastly, I inadvertently left out Jordan Smith. Should have included him in the "consideration" portion, if not the bottom five. (Although he hasn't shown it so far this season.)

  10. #9
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Most likely to win 50-100 games in the bigs? Maloney. Highest ceilings? Lotzkar and Bailey.

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    He may not be ROY eligible, but he's in the minors with essentially no major league service time, so certainly should be on our prospect lists.
    In baseball terms, prospect means ROY eligible, with less than 150 AB's and less than 50MLB ip. If its a minor league starting pitcher list, then sure. But if its a prospect list, then Bailey just doesn't meet the requirements.

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    True, if you are writing a book or work for a prospect website. If you are just a bunch of Reds fans rating your 'up-and-coming' starting pitchers which you are calling prospects (because they are) then Bailey should count. He's not Freddie Garcia in the minors, he's 22 and can still be considered a prospect on this forum...in my opinion...otherwise, we are pretty thin at future starting pitchers in the organization...

    Who cares about ROY anyway? Luckily for the Reds Volquez and Cueto are both young pitchers that are already up.

    Bum

  13. #12
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    True, if you are writing a book or work for a prospect website. If you are just a bunch of Reds fans rating your 'up-and-coming' starting pitchers which you are calling prospects (because they are) then Bailey should count. He's not Freddie Garcia in the minors, he's 22 and can still be considered a prospect on this forum...in my opinion...otherwise, we are pretty thin at future starting pitchers in the organization...

    Who cares about ROY anyway? Luckily for the Reds Volquez and Cueto are both young pitchers that are already up.

    Bum
    Ultimately it just comes down to how the word is defined in baseball circles. Someone is either a prospect or they aren't because the word has a set definition.

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Amongst baseball writers and purists...not fans. Why quibble?

  15. #14
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    The person quibbling is the one who wants to change the definition of a word...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Top Ten Starting Pitching Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Most likely to win 50-100 games in the bigs? Maloney. Highest ceilings? Lotzkar and Bailey.
    That's a good and fair distinction, and it's what makes this a thorny exercise. But yeah, it was based on the former. And given that, I probably should have ranked Maloney higher. But it's all so fleeting. If Ramirez puts together three good outings in a row, he's suddenly in the same category.


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