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Thread: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

  1. #1
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    Certainly it's not big news that if you avg 15 wins a month you will have 90 by seasons end. But between that and a post on the Sundeck about the month of may predictions I decided to start this ongoing thread for our month to month win predictions and to keep track of some that might have gotten away and the like. What say you?

    For the month of April here is how it broke down.

    April 6-9 vs. NYM: 1-2
    April 10-12 vs. Pitt: 1-1 (1 ppd)
    April 13-15 @ Mil: 2-1
    April 17-20 @ Hou: 3-1
    April 21-23 @ Chi: 2-1
    April 24-26 vs. Atl: 1-2
    April 27-29 vs. Hou: 1-2

    11-10 Overall, 4-7 @ Home, 8-3 on the road, 4 games short of 15 wins for the month.
    May 1-3 @ Pit: 2-1 (13 more wins are needed at minimum)

    So here is my prediction of the rest of the month of May.

    (May 1-3 @ Pitt 2-1 would have been my actual prediction FWIW not that it matters now)

    May 4-5 @ Fla 1-1
    May 6-7 VS MIL 1-1
    May 8-10 VS STL 1-2
    May 11-13 @ ARI 2-1
    May 15-17 @ SD 1-2
    May 19-21 VS PHI 1-2
    May 22-24 VS CLE 2-1
    May 25-27 VS HOU 1-2
    May 29-31 @ MIL 2-1

    Total: 12-13 which would put us at 14-14 on the month and at 25-24 overall and 5 wins short of the desired avg total.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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  3. #2
    OOOOH YEEEAHHHH!! CarolinaRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    I thought in the original thread the Reds would win 18 games this month and I'll stick to that after the nice start in Pittsburgh. I thought the team would win or tie every series, save for St. Louis and Philly, in which they'd go 1-2.

    Good to see two great starts to open the short roadie.

  4. #3
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    April was a short month, only 21 games. Asking 15 of those is too much.

    What was the pro-rated number they should have gotten to? 12? They almost did that.

  5. #4
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    I like using the golf score game. Nine games represent one hole. The goal for each hole should be 5-4, which projects out to a 90-72 record. The Reds went 5-4 on the first hole, 5-4 on the second hole, and are 3-3 so far on the third hole. If the Reds can win two of their next three games they'll maintain a 90-72 pace.

    Check out this thread for more on the golf score game:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...highlight=golf
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    I remember reading that a few years ago and I really like that slant on the season. Here is the Breakdown.
    Hole #1: (5-4) Par
    Hole #2: (5-4) Par
    Hole #3: (4-4) We need a win tonight in order to par.
    Hole #4: 1 vs MIL, 3 vs STL, 3 @ Ari, 2 @ SD
    Hole #5: 1 @ SD, 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 2 vs HOU
    Hole #6: 1 vs HOU, 3 @ MIL, 4 @ STL, 1 vs CHC
    Hole #7: 2 vs CHC, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ KC, 1 vs ATL
    Hole #8: 2 vs ATL, 3 vs CWS, 3 @ TOR, 1 @ CLE
    Hole #9: 2 @ CLE, 3 vs ARI, 3 vs STL, 1 @ PHI
    Back Nine
    Hole #10: 3 @ PHI, 3 @ NYM, 3 vs MIL
    Hole #11: 1 vs MIL, 3 @ LAD, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs SD
    Hole #12: 2 vs SD, 3 vs COL, 3 vs CHC, 1 @ SF
    Hole #13: 2 @SF, 3 @ STL, 4 vs WAS
    Hole #14: 3 vs SF, 3 @ PIT, 3 @ MIL
    Hole #15: 3 vs LAD, 3 vs PIT, 3 @ ATL
    Hole #16: 4 @ COL, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs HOU
    Hole #17: 1 vs HOU, 4 vs FLA, 3 @ PIT, 1 @ HOU
    Hole #18: 2 @ HOU, 3 vs STL, 3 vs PIT (April 10 rain-out vs PIT, if needed)
    ___________________
    Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Bull Durham

    MLB Mock Draft
    2009:
    2. Dustin Ackley 27. Tyler Skaggs 33. Kyle Heckathorn 51. Nick Franklin 82. Billy Bullock

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    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    The Back Nine Starts off rough, we're gonna need a run of birdies to end the front 9.
    ___________________
    Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Bull Durham

    MLB Mock Draft
    2009:
    2. Dustin Ackley 27. Tyler Skaggs 33. Kyle Heckathorn 51. Nick Franklin 82. Billy Bullock

  8. #7
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron View Post
    The Back Nine Starts off rough, we're gonna need a run of birdies to end the front 9.
    Holes 8-9-10 are gonna be rough. That's why holes like the one we are on are so important. We already have a birdie at worst (assuming I understand it correctly) and could come out with an albatross (Double Eagle). With 2 wins to start this series we were one freaking inning away from a potential hole in one.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  9. #8
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Holes 8-9-10 are gonna be rough. That's why holes like the one we are on are so important. We already have a birdie at worst (assuming I understand it correctly) and could come out with an albatross (Double Eagle). With 2 wins to start this series we were one freaking inning away from a potential hole in one.
    Your getting it. Here is the updated schedule:
    Hole #1: (5-4) Par
    Hole #2: (5-4) Par
    Hole #3: (4-5) Bogey
    Hole #4: (6-2) At worst a birdie, win tonight and an Eagle.
    Hole #5: 1 @ SD, 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 2 vs HOU
    Hole #6: 1 vs HOU, 3 @ MIL, 4 @ STL, 1 vs CHC
    Hole #7: 2 vs CHC, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ KC, 1 vs ATL
    Hole #8: 2 vs ATL, 3 vs CWS, 3 @ TOR, 1 @ CLE
    Hole #9: 2 @ CLE, 3 vs ARI, 3 vs STL, 1 @ PHI
    Back Nine
    Hole #10: 3 @ PHI, 3 @ NYM, 3 vs MIL
    Hole #11: 1 vs MIL, 3 @ LAD, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs SD
    Hole #12: 2 vs SD, 3 vs COL, 3 vs CHC, 1 @ SF
    Hole #13: 2 @SF, 3 @ STL, 4 vs WAS
    Hole #14: 3 vs SF, 3 @ PIT, 3 @ MIL
    Hole #15: 3 vs LAD, 3 vs PIT, 3 @ ATL
    Hole #16: 4 @ COL, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs HOU
    Hole #17: 1 vs HOU, 4 vs FLA, 3 @ PIT, 1 @ HOU
    Hole #18: 2 @ HOU, 3 vs STL, 3 vs PIT (April 10 rain-out vs PIT, if needed)
    ___________________
    Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Bull Durham

    MLB Mock Draft
    2009:
    2. Dustin Ackley 27. Tyler Skaggs 33. Kyle Heckathorn 51. Nick Franklin 82. Billy Bullock

  10. #9
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    With a win tonight we have shot par on yet another hole. We are even going into to the 6th hole tomorrow and on pace for 90 wins.
    Hole #1: (5-4) Par
    Hole #2: (5-4) Par
    Hole #3: (4-5) Bogey
    Hole #4: (6-3) Birdie
    Hole #5: (5-4) Par
    Hole #6: 1 vs HOU, 3 @ MIL, 4 @ STL, 1 vs CHC
    Hole #7: 2 vs CHC, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ KC, 1 vs ATL
    Hole #8: 2 vs ATL, 3 vs CWS, 3 @ TOR, 1 @ CLE
    Hole #9: 2 @ CLE, 3 vs ARI, 3 vs STL, 1 @ PHI
    Back Nine
    Hole #10: 3 @ PHI, 3 @ NYM, 3 vs MIL
    Hole #11: 1 vs MIL, 3 @ LAD, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs SD
    Hole #12: 2 vs SD, 3 vs COL, 3 vs CHC, 1 @ SF
    Hole #13: 2 @SF, 3 @ STL, 4 vs WAS
    Hole #14: 3 vs SF, 3 @ PIT, 3 @ MIL
    Hole #15: 3 vs LAD, 3 vs PIT, 3 @ ATL
    Hole #16: 4 @ COL, 3 @ CHC, 2 vs HOU
    Hole #17: 1 vs HOU, 4 vs FLA, 3 @ PIT, 1 @ HOU
    Hole #18: 2 @ HOU, 3 vs STL, 3 vs PIT (April 10 rain-out vs PIT, if needed)
    ___________________
    Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Bull Durham

    MLB Mock Draft
    2009:
    2. Dustin Ackley 27. Tyler Skaggs 33. Kyle Heckathorn 51. Nick Franklin 82. Billy Bullock

  11. #10
    OOOOH YEEEAHHHH!! CarolinaRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    The Astros sweep meant the 15 wins for the month mark was met.

  12. #11
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty's 15 Win Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by CarolinaRedleg View Post
    The Astros sweep meant the 15 wins for the month mark was met.
    Yes and if by chance we were to sweep Milwaukee (and BTW I happen to like our chances of at least getting 2) Then it would put us at 29 wins in the 1st 2 months, just 1 win shy of being "on pace".
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes


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