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Thread: The second-guessing game

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    The second-guessing game

    From Boston.com. A relevant bit about the Reds:

    Reds can't pull off a Jermaine Dye deal: He keeps on ticking, off to another great start in a very good career. A deal could have been made by sending pitching prospect Homer Bailey to the White Sox, but it got hung up because the Reds wanted Chicago to pay some of Dye's $12 million salary. The Reds don't have a regular left fielder to speak of.
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  3. #2
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    As much as Jermaine Dye's bat is needed in left field, I'm glad the Reds didn't make that trade now. I like what I'm reading about Homer Bailey. Everybody that has seen him pitch this year says his stuff and mechanics are back to where they were in 2006 when he dominated in the minors. I'd like to have Dye in left field but not at the expense of Homer Bailey. I like the thought of having three young power arms in the rotation for many years to come.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. #3
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    I'd rather keep Homer and try for a 'lesser' name than Dye.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Homer Bailey has pitched 5 games at AAA. In 27 innings (5.4 innings per start) he's given up 27 hits and 11 walks. His ERA is 4.61 and his WHIP is 1.39. The only statistic that even impresses is his 31 strikeouts. Allowing an average of 5 runs per game, it really doesn't matter about your strikeouts. they are nice, but I'd rather get them out without allowing a bunch of hits, too.

    The trade should have been made. I think Homer will be no better than a 4 starter and maybe a five. And that's a year or two off. We could use Dye's offensive abilities so much this year. it might make the difference in winning 75 or 90 games.
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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Homer Bailey has pitched 5 games at AAA. In 27 innings (5.4 innings per start) he's given up 27 hits and 11 walks. His ERA is 4.61 and his WHIP is 1.39. The only statistic that even impresses is his 31 strikeouts. Allowing an average of 5 runs per game, it really doesn't matter about your strikeouts. they are nice, but I'd rather get them out without allowing a bunch of hits, too.

    The trade should have been made. I think Homer will be no better than a 4 starter and maybe a five. And that's a year or two off. We could use Dye's offensive abilities so much this year. it might make the difference in winning 75 or 90 games.
    I don't know how to run the numbers, but could one player account for 15 wins? That sounds high.

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Yeah, I dunno. I'm kind of in the middle. I'm a bit Fox Mulder on Homer in that I want to believe but I'm wondering if he'd be more valuable as a trading chip than a player. I also don't know if Dye is the guy I'd want although the net difference in production between him and what we've had in LF is pretty significant; it might even have us worrying the Cardinals.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    No way in the world I trade Homer for Dye. Yeah, Dye's a good player, but we're simply not going to win this year. Too many young kids to realistically think we'll get to the playoffs. 2010 and beyond is our window in my opinion and Homer's a big part of it. We've got kids coming up that can fill that OF position in the near future. Even if they don't pan out...I'd rather we look in the FA market next year instead of trading away a kid with Homer's potential. Pitching is MUCH more important than an OF'er.
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Homer Bailey has pitched 5 games at AAA. In 27 innings (5.4 innings per start) he's given up 27 hits and 11 walks. His ERA is 4.61 and his WHIP is 1.39. The only statistic that even impresses is his 31 strikeouts. Allowing an average of 5 runs per game, it really doesn't matter about your strikeouts. they are nice, but I'd rather get them out without allowing a bunch of hits, too.

    The trade should have been made. I think Homer will be no better than a 4 starter and maybe a five. And that's a year or two off. We could use Dye's offensive abilities so much this year. it might make the difference in winning 75 or 90 games.
    In his last three starts:

    19.1 IP, 15 H, 7 BB, 23 K, 1.88 ERA

    He was roughed up in his first two starts but his stuff was very good according to Rick Sweet. My guess is it was a letdown from being sent down despite outpitching his competition in spring training. It happens. David Price and Matt Wieters (the #1 and 2 prospects in baseball) are both off to underwhelming starts in the minors after being sent down. Homer's stuff has been terrific according to everyone who has seen him pitch this season.

    I like Dye, but not trading Bailey for Dye may turn out to be the best decision Jocketty has made with the Reds.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #9
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    If Homer reaches his alleged potential, the Reds could be a dynasty. At this point, I'll keep him.

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Last year (and early this year) people were so quick to give up on Homer it just astounds me. It's like they expect him to be an ace of the staff at, what is he...22? 23? Good grief. Give the kid some time to mature. He's got the stuff to be a number 1 starter...those don't grow on trees you know.
    2014 predictions:
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  12. #11
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Total hypothetical:

    Homer could be traded for "the missing link" that gets the Reds into the postseason this year but isn't.

    What level of performance from Homer would make that "OK" in 2010 and beyond?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #12
    On the brink of disaster acredsfan's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Everybody is getting hung up on Bailey vs. Dye when the deal was stopped because of a money issue. The question should be is Dye worth $12M PLUS the loss of Homer. Even if he does end up as only a 4th starter as has been suggested in this thread, that is still a loss in production which you then have to pay another player to replace. Taking the whole picture into account, I would rather try Nix in LF and take my chances with Homer becoming an above average starter.
    Last edited by acredsfan; 05-04-2009 at 11:07 PM.
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  14. #13
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Last year (and early this year) people were so quick to give up on Homer it just astounds me. It's like they expect him to be an ace of the staff at, what is he...22? 23? Good grief. Give the kid some time to mature. He's got the stuff to be a number 1 starter...those don't grow on trees you know.
    I agree with your general point, that it's to early to give up on Homer. But I don't know if I agree with the #1 starter stuff. From what I've seen, both in person and on television, he doesn't have anywhere near the stuff that Volquez or Cueto has. Maybe it's changed, maybe his stuff really is that good this year. But I'll believe it when I see it. The Reds sure aren't going to downplay his stuff if they hope on using him as a potential trading chip at some point.

  15. #14
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    It seems to me as if many on this board are in "grass is grenner" mode with Homer. He's been nitpicked so much since he was drafted that people consider him a bust and too far gone. But if he was in KC or Minnesota, for example, those same individuals would probably be clamoring to try and deal for him.

    Homer is young. I know I am rooting for him to make it big in Cincy.

  16. #15
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Wonder how many people in KC gave up on Grienke three years ago?


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