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Thread: The second-guessing game

  1. #31
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    I wouldn't have been opposed to the trade entirely but I'd cringe when Homer became an ace, 2009 was gone and so was Dye and the Reds were again without a left fielder and a future ace. Yes, I believe Homer will get there.

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  3. #32
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I would quibble with the one line which I've bolded. I think the market changed after they made those moves. I'd have to look at the dates, but I think the FA market had not shifted by that point (although I acknowledge I might be off slightly).
    Yeah. I can't prove it, but I'm still of the opinion that Jocketty started out with one budget number, making moves with an eye toward leaving enough room to sign a bat for left field, a stated priority going into the offseason. Then one day Castellini walked in and gave him a lower number.

    I really don't think Walt is an idiot who had this budget figure all along and can't count, which is what some of RedsZone appears to believe. Nor do I hold him responsible for not foreseeing the cut. His job is to find ballplayers, not keep the books.
    Not all who wander are lost

  4. #33
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Yeah. I can't prove it, but I'm still of the opinion that Jocketty started out with one budget number, making moves with an eye toward leaving enough room to sign a bat for left field, a stated priority going into the offseason. Then one day Castellini walked in and gave him a lower number.

    I really don't think Walt is an idiot who had this budget figure all along and can't count, which is what some of RedsZone appears to believe. Nor do I hold him responsible for not foreseeing the cut. His job is to find ballplayers, not keep the books.
    Or he just decided that he didn't want to another good bat, no glove LF, which is what the market was rife with this year. The team had made the decision to prioritize defense and, particularly given the talent in the pipeline, it didn't make sense to invest in somebody that didn't fit the mold of what the team was trying to do. With no LF available who fit both the mold of the team and the budget (at the time, nobody thought Abreu would get just $5M), they decide that the next best thing was upgrading elsewhere.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #34
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Or he just decided that he didn't want to another good bat, no glove LF, which is what the market was rife with this year. The team had made the decision to prioritize defense and, particularly given the talent in the pipeline, it didn't make sense to invest in somebody that didn't fit the mold of what the team was trying to do. With no LF available who fit both the mold of the team and the budget (at the time, nobody thought Abreu would get just $5M), they decide that the next best thing was upgrading elsewhere.
    I tend to agree. Given the lack of leftfielders whose defense didn't give back a chunk of their offensive worth, Jocketty decided to created a facsimile via platoon and turn his focus upon other positions.

    Philosophically, its not an unsound approach IMHO.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I would quibble with the one line which I've bolded. I think the market changed after they made those moves. I'd have to look at the dates, but I think the FA market had not shifted by that point (although I acknowledge I might be off slightly).

    This is the first time I've heard this account of any dealings with Abreau's people. Where was that reported?
    I guess my biggest gripe with those free agents is that similar players were already in house, and available for much less money.

    Hopper, Roenicke, and a healthy Bray.

    The Abreu dealings were detailed by Paul Daugherty several times right after he signed with the Angels on 700 WLW. There might be something in print at the Enquirer website, or maybe WLW still has the podcast online. (I doubt it since they fired PDoc)
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  7. #36
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    You can argue the Reds didn't need to make the Dye for Bailey swap, but there is no argument that the Reds needed to take the offense seriously.

    Whether it was by trade or in the free agent market, the Reds needed a bat. Thanks to Wayne Krivsky the Reds have the best starting rotation the club has seen since 1995. He locked up Harang, he traded for Volquez and Arroyo, he made changes in the developmental system which fostered Cueto's rise to the majors.

    And it became a buyer's market for bats this winter.

    So the Reds an opportunity to make a serious bid for the postseason given the rotation and there were multiple bats available.

    Yet the Reds didn't get so much as one impact bat and the lineup is being sabotaged by multiple below average hitters. What you've got now is pitching that's delivering and an atrocious offense that isn't. I can tell you what Pythagoras has to say about this club and it isn't all that upbeat. Getting outscored by 50 runs isn't a winning strategy.

    So feel free to wax poetic about how wonderful Homer Bailey will be (he's got this year to win himself a job with the major league club or he goes bye-bye) or how a guy like Dye isn't a fabulous defender, but the Reds needed some muscle in the middle of the lineup and some more OB distributed around the lineup if they were going to make a serious run this season.

    The 2009 Reds ultimately may be a nothing ventured, nothing gained story. The club isn't built to make anything of whatever advantages it has on the mound.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #37
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You can argue the Reds didn't need to make the Dye for Bailey swap, but there is no argument that the Reds needed to take the offense seriously.

    Whether it was by trade or in the free agent market, the Reds needed a bat. Thanks to Wayne Krivsky the Reds have the best starting rotation the club has seen since 1995. He locked up Harang, he traded for Volquez and Arroyo, he made changes in the developmental system which fostered Cueto's rise to the majors.

    And it became a buyer's market for bats this winter.

    So the Reds an opportunity to make a serious bid for the postseason given the rotation and there were multiple bats available.

    Yet the Reds didn't get so much as one impact bat and the lineup is being sabotaged by multiple below average hitters. What you've got now is pitching that's delivering and an atrocious offense that isn't. I can tell you what Pythagoras has to say about this club and it isn't all that upbeat. Getting outscored by 50 runs isn't a winning strategy.

    So feel free to wax poetic about how wonderful Homer Bailey will be (he's got this year to win himself a job with the major league club or he goes bye-bye) or how a guy like Dye isn't a fabulous defender, but the Reds needed some muscle in the middle of the lineup and some more OB distributed around the lineup if they were going to make a serious run this season.

    The 2009 Reds ultimately may be a nothing ventured, nothing gained story. The club isn't built to make anything of whatever advantages it has on the mound.

    Amen.

    It's very disappointing. This team, and I don't think I'm exaggerating, has one of the most talented rotations in the game. And it's all going to waste. It's not even that we have an average offense. We have a very poor offense that is going to end up killing our postseason hopes, and hopefully not our young arms also.

  9. #38
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    If you are reading the book "Dont Jump" Do Not click this link!

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2009.shtml
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  10. #39
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Amen.

    We have a very poor offense that is going to end up killing our postseason hopes, and hopefully not our young arms also.

    Of course very few of us had postseason hopes during the fall, winter and spring and I think Reds front office people may have been amongst those people.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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  11. #40
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And it became a buyer's market for bats this winter.

    So the Reds an opportunity to make a serious bid for the postseason given the rotation and there were multiple bats available.

    Yet the Reds didn't get so much as one impact bat and the lineup is being sabotaged by multiple below average hitters. What you've got now is pitching that's delivering and an atrocious offense that isn't. I can tell you what Pythagoras has to say about this club and it isn't all that upbeat. Getting outscored by 50 runs isn't a winning strategy.
    Do you think that it was a true buyer's market, or do you think that it was a buyer's market for teams who could actually sell their team to the FA? I saw teams like the Dodgers, Angels and TB reap the benefits of the market. Other than Washington picking up a guy who Cincy probably wasn't offering anything to, did any non top tier teams clean up in this buyer's market?

  12. #41
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Do you think that it was a true buyer's market, or do you think that it was a buyer's market for teams who could actually sell their team to the FA? I saw teams like the Dodgers, Angels and TB reap the benefits of the market. Other than Washington picking up a guy who Cincy probably wasn't offering anything to, did any non top tier teams clean up in this buyer's market?
    When established productive hitters are available for a percentage of their former wages, it is a buyer's market. When teams are willing to trade away cogs in the middle of their lineup in order to save money, it is a buyer's market.

    I suppose you could argue there's no such thing as a buyer's market for truly pathetic organizations, but the market works outside of a club's ability/willingness to execute.

    Looks to me like the Reds, Giants, Braves, Royals, Mariners and White Sox are going to kicking themselves this season for not adding some thunder which was there to get and pretty much anyone could have told you those clubs needed.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #42
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    If you are reading the book "Dont Jump" Do Not click this link!

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2009.shtml
    Granted its a small sample size, but 4 of the 6 bench players have an OPS+ over 100, while only 2 of the 8 starters do. 2 starters are OPS-ing over .667. Two. And they are both 2nd year players.

    If only they there was a job in baseball that involved putting the right hitters in the lineup. Granted, there were many things the FO could have done this off season to dramatically help the ball club, but it would also help if the manager knew how to put hot players in the lineup, and not try so hard to not be a "front-runner."

  14. #43
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    When established productive hitters are available for a percentage of their former wages, it is a buyer's market. When teams are willing to trade away cogs in the middle of their lineup in order to save money, it is a buyer's market.

    I suppose you could argue there's no such thing as a buyer's market for truly pathetic organizations, but the market works outside of a club's ability/willingness to execute.

    Looks to me like the Reds, Giants, Braves, Royals, Mariners and White Sox are going to kicking themselves this season for not adding some thunder which was there to get and pretty much anyone could have told you those clubs needed.
    It's like how the housing market is now a buyer's market. Prices are low, rates are low...except now there is much stricter lending criteria so only the wealthy can get those low rates and cheap prices.

    The prices for Abreu, Burrell, etc were for the wealthy. Those prices would have gone up to normal levels if they were to go to a non-winner.

  15. #44
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    It's like how the housing market is now a buyer's market. Prices are low, rates are low...except now there is much stricter lending criteria so only the wealthy can get those low rates and cheap prices.

    The prices for Abreu, Burrell, etc were for the wealthy. Those prices would have gone up to normal levels if they were to go to a non-winner.
    Baseball clubs have constant access to credit in the form of fans. Put a winning club on the field and you get your ROI.

    Those weren't prices for the wealthy. They were the prices. That a number of teams passed on paying those prices when they needed the talent is something they've got to live with.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #45
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    [sad voice] oh....we're a small market team...we'll never get a real FA...they wouldn't want to play here anyway....oh golly......[/sad voice]

    That's the mentality of losers.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


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