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Thread: The second-guessing game

  1. #46
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Granted its a small sample size, but 4 of the 6 bench players have an OPS+ over 100, while only 2 of the 8 starters do. 2 starters are OPS-ing over .667. Two. And they are both 2nd year players.

    If only they there was a job in baseball that involved putting the right hitters in the lineup. Granted, there were many things the FO could have done this off season to dramatically help the ball club, but it would also help if the manager knew how to put hot players in the lineup, and not try so hard to not be a "front-runner."
    Actually, Rosales is one of the "bench" players and he is the starting 3B.

    Janish is out OPS'ing, Gonzalez, but I doubt you would have begged Dusty to start him at the beginning of the year. Anyway it looks like he will be starting some games due to Gonzalez's injury.

    Hanigan is hitting better than Hernandez, but he's a rookie and Hernandez was acquired to start this year, while the Reds break in Hanigan for the future.

    Nix is really the only guy who should get more playing time and Dusty the other day said he would. Hence the title of Hal's latest article:

    "Redsí Nix to get more playing time"

    http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayto...me-107009.html

    Maybe one reason why they are OPS'ing so well is because they are being used properly, and if over used, their faults would show?

    And about putting "hot" players in the lineup, that's the philosophy that Boone and Narron used, and one reason why they are not managing today.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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  3. #47
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Baseball clubs have constant access to credit in the form of fans. Put a winning club on the field and you get your ROI.

    Those weren't prices for the wealthy. They were the prices. That a number of teams passed on paying those prices when they needed the talent is something they've got to live with.
    So the fact that the premier FAs this offseason went to the winning teams doesn't have much to do with their recent success?

  4. #48
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    So the fact that the premier FAs this offseason went to the winning teams doesn't have much to do with their recent success?
    Maybe it's because the "winning teams" were the highest bidders? Maybe that's why they are the "winning teams"?

  5. #49
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Actually, Rosales is one of the "bench" players and he is the starting 3B.
    Was. That job inexplicably belongs to Hairston for the next couple of games (except that now Hairston is playing SS tonight for the injured Gonzalez so Rosales stays in the lineup for now).
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
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  6. #50
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    Was. That job inexplicably belongs to Hairston for the next couple of games (except that now Hairston is playing SS tonight for the injured Gonzalez so Rosales stays in the lineup for now).
    You just knew that was going to happen.

  7. #51
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    This is a myth. They didn't have their choice of those guys. Those guys had their choice of a bunch of teams and happened to choose teams who have won in recent memory. Except Dunn, who wasn't coming back anyway.
    If the Reds were willing to cough up 12 million, I think some of them would've listened. Probably not Ibanez or Dunn (who both wanted and got multi year deals). Probably Abreau. 7 million more would've probably turned his head.

    I agree with Atomic Dumpling. Cast just wasn't willing to put his money where his mouth was (at least for this year). Part of the blame also goes to Wayne for leaving us with relatively overpaid contracts (Freel, Gonzo, Cordero, and even Phillips).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #52
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If the Reds were willing to cough up 12 million, I think some of them would've listened. Probably not Ibanez or Dunn (who both wanted and got multi year deals). Probably Abreau. 7 million more would've probably turned his head.

    I agree with Atomic Dumpling. Cast just wasn't willing to put his money where his mouth was (at least for this year). Part of the blame also goes to Wayne for leaving us with relatively overpaid contracts (Freel, Gonzo, Cordero, and even Phillips).
    Can't help but get another cheap shot at Wayne can you?

  9. #53
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Generally the most valuable player in baseball tops out at a WAR of 9 to 10 (aka Pujols).

    Dye is projected to have a wOBA of .355. Thus his bat would be +13 runs above average over 600 PAs. His defense is likely to be something like -18 runs (based upon CHONE projections). He gets dinged another -7.5 runs for playing leftfield. The he gets 20 runs for the difference between average and replacement over 600 PAs.

    That would suggest he would be worth about a win (13+20-7.5-18.5).
    I agree with the reasoning.. However, the Reds probably won't get average production out of LF. They are probably going to get close to replacement level (if they are lucky).

    I think Dye is worth several more wins, just because our LF is so bad.
    I agree that Dye isn't worth 15 more wins.. Maybe 4-5, only because our LF is so bad.
    I don't think he makes this team a contender though.
    I wouldn't mind trading for him, because that makes this year much more entertaining, and I don't care much for Homer.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #54
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Generally it's a buyer's market because there are more sellers than buyers. Generally there is a reason for that too...

    BTW, the Ms passed on the "established" hitters with purpose.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #55
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If the Reds were willing to cough up 12 million, I think some of them would've listened. Probably not Ibanez or Dunn (who both wanted and got multi year deals). Probably Abreau. 7 million more would've probably turned his head.

    I agree with Atomic Dumpling. Cast just wasn't willing to put his money where his mouth was (at least for this year). Part of the blame also goes to Wayne for leaving us with relatively overpaid contracts (Freel, Gonzo, Cordero, and even Phillips).
    $12MM? $7MM more than LAA? That's a lot of money. Not sure if it would have been a wise business move.

  12. #56
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Maybe it's because the "winning teams" were the highest bidders? Maybe that's why they are the "winning teams"?
    Chicken or the egg.

  13. #57
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Chicken or the egg.
    I truly believe those guys went to the highest bidder, especially Abreu. The Reds chose not to play with the "big boys" this winter even when prices fell into their range.

  14. #58
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    [sad voice] oh....we're a small market team...we'll never get a real FA...they wouldn't want to play here anyway....oh golly......[/sad voice]

    That's the mentality of losers.
    Yes, that's our Cincinnati Reds, unfortunately.

    I'm really disappointed in Cast so far. Looks like he's just another windbag owner that talks a big game but wants to stay "small market" and collect a nice revenue sharing check.

    I think Walt did an ok job (not great) based on the holes he had and the money he had to spend. We'll do better than the 74 wins we had last year. At least that's some progress. The team is more enjoyable to watch than last year. Last year was truly unbearable.. I pretty much stopped following the team.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #59
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Can't help but get another cheap shot at Wayne can you?

    Hey, it's the truth. I can criticize Cast and Walt too.

    Without Gonzo on the payroll, it becomes a lot easier to make some moves.

    Unloading Freel was a minor miracle, but we got stuck with an overpaid catcher.. Not bad, since Freel was a sunk cost, and Hernandez was only a small increment more, but not an optimal situation.

    I'd rather have a legitimate cleanup hitter than Cordero.

    I never understand why DanO and Bowden are fair game to criticize, yet Wayne is supposed to be immune. Wayne has proven that you can make the team substantially worse, despite upgrading the starting rotation.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #60
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The second-guessing game

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    $12MM? $7MM more than LAA? That's a lot of money. Not sure if it would have been a wise business move.

    I agree. I was speaking hypothetically.
    If the Reds were willing to cough up 12 million for Dye, they could've gotten one of the FA LF. That's all I'm saying.

    It's hard to say whether it would've been worth it to outbid LAA for Abreu.
    It may not have taken 12 million, but would 8-10 million be worth it?
    If the franchise was truly interested in creating a culture of winning and was trying to get fans back, then yes, I think it would be worth giving Abreau 8-10 million for probably another 3-5 wins.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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