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Thread: Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

  1. #31
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    He is a leadoff hitter. SLG is one of the last things I would look at in order to determine his value.
    That wasn't his point at all.

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  3. #32
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    He is a leadoff hitter. SLG is one of the last things I would look at in order to determine his value.
    The point, that Nate originally brought up, is that with such a low slugging percentage pitchers aren't going to nibble around the plate (which tends to lead to more walks with a patient hitter). They are going to attack him and throw strikes.
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  4. #33
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    The point, that Nate originally brought up, is that with such a low slugging percentage pitchers aren't going to nibble around the plate (which tends to lead to more walks with a patient hitter). They are going to attack him and throw strikes.
    But if they attack him that means he will get more pitches to hit. So far Taveras has been pretty paitent at the plate not swinging at many bad pitches. The key for him is how often he gets on base. Even if pitchers pound the strikezone because he doesn't have HR power, he still will see more good pitches to hit. If Taveras gets on base he has the ability to turn a bunt single into a triple. To be quite honest I don't know why he hasn't run much so far this year but I expect to see more of it as the season progresses.

  5. #34
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    But if they attack him that means he will get more pitches to hit.
    That would be great if he were a .320 hitter, but he's not. Pitchers are not playing into his strength by doing this.

    You say what you care about with Taveras is his OB, yet pitchers pounding him with the hard stuff is what makes his OB go down.
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  6. #35
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    But if they attack him that means he will get more pitches to hit. So far Taveras has been pretty paitent at the plate not swinging at many bad pitches. The key for him is how often he gets on base. Even if pitchers pound the strikezone because he doesn't have HR power, he still will see more good pitches to hit. If Taveras gets on base he has the ability to turn a bunt single into a triple. To be quite honest I don't know why he hasn't run much so far this year but I expect to see more of it as the season progresses.
    Looking at it from a pitcher's point of view, the ideal hitter is another pitcher. The second most ideal hitter is a power-deficient guy whose OBP is singles driven. Unless the guy is Ichiro (i.e. a freak who still manages an above average wOBA), such a hitter generally is a great risk from a making contact standpoint.

    I think that's the context for what several have alluded to in this thread concerning WT's issues with getting on base and hitting for power.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #36
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That would be great if he were a .320 hitter, but he's not.

    You say what you care about with Taveras is his OB, yet pitchers pounding him with the hard stuff is what makes his OB go down.
    Exactly.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #37
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That would be great if he were a .320 hitter, but he's not. Pitchers are not playing into his strength by doing this.

    You say what you care about with Taveras is his OB, yet pitchers pounding him with the hard stuff is what makes his OB go down.
    Best RC/27 for a FT player with a slugging percentage below .360 in the past 20 years is Chuck Knoblauch (1992)with a tad over a run better than the league average. he hit .297 and had a .384 ob% But he could take a walk.

  9. #38
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To be quite honest I don't know why he hasn't run much so far this year but I expect to see more of it as the season progresses.
    I'm not sure I do. In the three seasons before '08, he attempted 45, 42 and 42 steals (granted he only played 97 games in '07). So far this season, he's on pace for 43 attempts, which is right in line with those numbers.

    Now maybe we'll get the '08 version of Taveras when he ran like his hair was on fire (75 attempts) - and I hope we do - but he's really going to have to take it up a notch for that to happen.
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  10. #39
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Nobody has to be careful with or fearful of a guy with a .358 SLG.
    I agree, generally. In fact I had a post in the SunDeck stating that Taveras' biggest problem is not his low OBP, but his low SLG, for the very reason you just stated.

    However...

    My point in this last post was that I was surprised at how hard Taveras hits the ball. He does not swing like a punch and judy hitter, he really crushes the ball when he makes solid contact. The reason his SLG is so low is because of his approach, which is to pound the ball into the ground and his size.

    I don't think that pitchers look at a hitter's SLG when they are on the mound. Sure, the pre-game meeting points this out, but when a pitcher faces Taveras, and sees his swing, they probably are more fearful of him than his SLG would dictate, and are more likely to be careful with him than they would be with most guys with his SLG.

    That's all I'm saying.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  11. #40
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Well, except that Taveras has a career LD% of 14% and only 12% this year. By comparison, Votto is at 26%, Bruce is at 21% and Edwin is at 21% (all career numbers).

    If I'm a pitcher, I'm going right after Willy.
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  12. #41
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    Well, except that Taveras has a career LD% of 14% and only 12% this year. By comparison, Votto is at 26%, Bruce is at 21% and Edwin is at 21% (all career numbers).

    If I'm a pitcher, I'm going right after Willy.
    LD% is very subjective. It does not include hard hit grounders, which is Taveras' style. It should be low for him, you want him hitting grounders with his speed. And we have seen this year, that when he can get one of those grounders past the infield, they can get to wall real fast. You can crush the ball, and still have a low LD rate.

    Anyway, my point is that Taveras appears to hit the ball harder than his numbers indicate. I am not saying that he has "hidden" power, just that pitchers, while they should go right at him, might be a bit fearful based on how hard he swings. Not a very compelling argument I know.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  13. #42
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Has he done anything Norris Hopper couldn't have done?

  14. #43
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    One would expect a lightning-fast GB hitter to have a sustainably higher than average BABIP. For all of Taveras' lightning fast, hard-hittingness, his BABIP, isn't that impressively higher than average.

    I'm not really buying the "he doesn't hit for power but pitchers fear his ability to hit the ball hard" argument.

    He's a singles hitter. He may hit grounders harder than normal but it doesn't seem to translate.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #44
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    One would expect a lightning-fast GB hitter to have a sustainably higher than average BABIP. For all of Taveras' lightning fast, hard-hittingness, his BABIP, isn't that impressively higher than average.

    I'm not really buying the "he doesn't hit for power but pitchers fear his ability to hit the ball hard" argument.

    He's a singles hitter. He may hit grounders harder than normal but it doesn't seem to translate.
    I agree. What I might buy is the "pitchers fear his ability to drive them batty on the basepaths" argument...but only if he starts running like he did last year.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
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  16. #45
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Has he done anything Norris Hopper couldn't have done?

    Play defense better.
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