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Thread: Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

  1. #151
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Bronson has won us five games. Granted he must be close to the top of the league in terms of run support but he's also in the league leaders in wins as well.
    Well, the Reds have won five games that Bronson has pitched in. I wouldn't say he's "won" all of them other than statistically.

    WRT run support, he's gotten about 5.7/9 runs a game from the offense. Compared to his ERA, it would seem something is afoot. I think his "real" record so far is something like 3-4 or 4-3.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #152
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    I really am starting to like that Willy T signing after all. I hope he keeps it up. He's playing great.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  4. #153
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    But a pitcher's win/loss record says almost nothing about a pitcher's performance. I present you Johan Santana... ERA+ 559 ERA 0.78 WHIP 0.97 W/L........4-2. Arroyo 5-2 go figure
    .
    W-L isn't a good tool for comparing Bronson to Santana.. however it is a good tool for telling the value of Bronson to the Reds team.

    For example, if a pitcher is leading 10-0, they are not going to worry about their ERA. They aren't going to care if they give up a few solo HR, they are just going to avoid walks and pitch to contact. Most really don't care if they win the game 10-2 or 10-5.. the goal is to get the win.

    Bronson's 5 wins have been valuable. Sure, the offense has helped, but he did his job on those days. Some days, a pitcher's job is easier than others.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #154
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I'd say as a Red...he's easily been the Reds 2nd best starter over the last 3 years. And you're also the person that was against trading him to Atlanta (when they showed interest in the past).

    Sure, he's not been so good so far this year. But you're basing it off of 6 weeks of play. It's a long season.
    I think I've made it abundantly clear that I regard Arroyo's production in 2006-2007 as valuable.

    His numbers last season revealed him to be helpful only about half the time, but the other half giving the team very little chance to win. His walks went up, and his Ks went down. The same thing is happening this season. But if he's going to turn it around to "average," he's got a lot of work to do. And with his stuff (flatter, less bite), I don't see it happening. Minus a miracle.

  6. #155
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think I've made it abundantly clear that I regard Arroyo's production in 2006-2007 as valuable.

    His numbers last season revealed him to be helpful only about half the time, but the other half giving the team very little chance to win. His walks went up, and his Ks went down. The same thing is happening this season. But if he's going to turn it around to "average," he's got a lot of work to do. And with his stuff (flatter, less bite), I don't see it happening. Minus a miracle.
    In 2008 Arroyo had the highest K/9 of his career.

  7. #156
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    But a pitcher's win/loss record says almost nothing about a pitcher's performance. I present you Johan Santana... ERA+ 559 ERA 0.78 WHIP 0.97 W/L........4-2. Arroyo 5-2 go figure

    Arroyo will gradually trend towards the norm. By then of the year be somewhere between a 95 and 110 ERA+. He is a solid #3 pitcher and continues to be an asset to this team.
    Oh he's been lucky to be sure but remember the saying "I'd rather be lucky than good."

    Simply put I don't care how poorly he pitches so long as it doesn't hurt the team in the win column

  8. #157
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    But a pitcher's win/loss record says almost nothing about a pitcher's performance. I present you Johan Santana... ERA+ 559 ERA 0.78 WHIP 0.97 W/L........4-2. Arroyo 5-2 go figure

    Arroyo will gradually trend towards the norm. By then of the year be somewhere between a 95 and 110 ERA+. He is a solid #3 pitcher and continues to be an asset to this team.
    Santanas 2 loses also came in games in which he didn't give up an earned run.

  9. #158
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    In 2008 Arroyo had the highest K/9 of his career.
    You're right. I had mistakenly included 2009's stats with his 2008's from an earlier post. But, however instructive it may or may not be, since the start of 2008, his Ks are down from his 2006-07 numbers, and his walks are definitely up. He could do the same thing he did last season and make a massive correction, but at age 32, I wouldn't consider it money in the bank.

  10. #159
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Getting back to Willy...

    Is anyone not thrilled to see the way this guy is playing? Different and fun style of baseball around here.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  11. #160
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Getting back to Willy...

    Is anyone not thrilled to see the way this guy is playing? Different and fun style of baseball around here.
    Yeah, it's a nice change I agree. I like guys that go 1st to 3rd and home from first on a double. Breath of fresh air from the stone tablets that moved around the bases last year.

    Can't say I didn't see it coming, though.

  12. #161
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yeah, it's a nice change I agree. I like guys that go 1st to 3rd and home from first on a double. Breath of fresh air from the stone tablets that moved around the bases last year.
    Can't say I didn't see it coming, though.
    Don't pat yourself too hard since you've already called the season....

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Last night's game will be remembered as the game this season where the Reds were winnowed out of the contention cluster which includes Chicago and St. Louis and temporarily Milwaukee. Tonight's game will be putting the corpse on ice. I'll say Milwaukee 10-4.
    Concerning Arroyo, he was projected to be something like league average. While I think you're way too down on him at this point, I do agree that his first 7 starts necessitate downgrading the expected "mean" he'll regress to over the course of the rest of the season (i.e. his next 24 starts are probably going to be something less than league average).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #162
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think I've made it abundantly clear that I regard Arroyo's production in 2006-2007 as valuable.

    His numbers last season revealed him to be helpful only about half the time, but the other half giving the team very little chance to win. His walks went up, and his Ks went down. The same thing is happening this season. But if he's going to turn it around to "average," he's got a lot of work to do. And with his stuff (flatter, less bite), I don't see it happening. Minus a miracle.
    I'd say it's way too early to jump to such conclusions. Arroyo has historically had bad slumps here and there and has then turned it around and been great. It's not like he's 37. I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise.

  14. #163
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Don't pat yourself too hard since you've already called the season....



    Concerning Arroyo, he was projected to be something like league average. While I think you're way too down on him at this point, I do agree that his first 7 starts necessitate downgrading the expected "mean" he'll regress to over the course of the rest of the season (i.e. his next 24 starts are probably going to be something less than league average).
    I still think all three of those teams will finish ahead of the Reds; my "calling the season" is nothing different from what I've predicted since the prediction thread: 82-80.

  15. #164
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Anyone else think Taveras' OBP is largely driven by his BA: His BA sits at .322, and he has only 11 walks on the season. I fully expect his OBP will drop considerably when he returns to earth.

  16. #165
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Anyone else think Taveras' OBP is largely driven by his BA: His BA sits at .328, and he has only 11 walks on the season. I fully expect his OBP will drop considerably when he returns to earth.

    That's the big question, though. Can he keep his batting average up? If he can, it's all good. If he can't, then there may be some problems.

    I'll bet there are people on this board who didn't think he'd get 11 walks for the season.
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