Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

[Ltlabner]

We are talking about arbitration though. It doesn't necessarly follow the same logic we do.

That's dandy but it has nothing to do with your assertion that Willy T' producing those numbers as being "reasonable".

It clearly is not, so any discussion regarding what might happen in arbitration that starts at your definition of "reasonable" is pretty much useless. Might as well say, "If Willy Taveras wins American Idol, swims the Pacific Ocean, gives up baseball for the priesthood and becomes a light skinned white woman this year, that's reasonable. So in arbitration........"

[Sea Ray]

Of course IF he does do it then he'll only be the 5th guy to have done it... but the 2nd Red.

SEASON
MODERN (1900-)
RUNS >= 100
STOLEN BASES BETWEEN 60 AND 80
AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .280

OPS                           YEAR     OPS       R       SB       AVG    
1    Rickey Henderson         1989     .810      113       77     .274   
2    Bob Bescher              1911     .753      106       80     .275   
3    Juan Samuel              1984     .749      105       72     .272   
4    Tony Womack              1999     .702      111       72     .277

Yes, but the way you sorted it makes it look awfully rare. My guess is if you sorted the BA and stolen bases to infinity like you did the runs scored the list would be much higher. Capping the avg at .280 and stolen bases at 80 makes for a very sparsely populated list.

[edabbs44]

Except that it isn't.

He's hit .280+ two years out of four.

He's never exceeded 85 runs

He's stolen 60+ bases once out of four years.

He's exceeded .350 OBP once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

His EqA has been league average (.260) once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

So no, your scenario isn't "reasonable".

This is pretty unfair.

He has hit .280 in 50% of his seasons.

He also stole 60 bases in his most recent season. He is on pace for 46 this year while ramping up the SBs this month, so it would be fair to say that he could reach 60 this year if the trend continues.

Runs are very team dependent, so while 85 is his career high he could also (with a little bit of luck) score 100. He is on pace for 110 right now. If Votto can get back on the field then this has a better shot at happening.

Maybe it isn't probable, but it is definitely "not excessive or extreme", which does fit the definition of reasonable.

[Ltlabner]

This is pretty unfair.

He has hit .280 in 50% of his seasons.

He also stole 60 bases in his most recent season. He is on pace for 46 this year while ramping up the SBs this month, so it would be fair to say that he could reach 60 this year if the trend continues.

Runs are very team dependent, so while 85 is his career high he could also (with a little bit of luck) score 100. He is on pace for 110 right now. If Votto can get back on the field then this has a better shot at happening.

Maybe it isn't probable, but it is definitely "not excessive or extreme", which does fit the definition of reasonable.

Your version of what is "possible" is why Las Vegas drains all the suckers of the kids college funds and the mortgage payment and send them home to the little lady and bank auditors.

Redread was trying to make the case that it was reasonable to believe Willy T would suddenly be able to do something he's never done before. Ever. He's never done what Redread suggested was reasonable in the same season. The history clearly shows that this is not "reasonable" at all. Willy would have produce in ways he never has and there's no evidence to suggest he'll be doing that at all.

By the way he was never able to score over 85 runs (83 is carer high) as the lead off hitter on two world series contending teams. I'm going to suggest that it's going to take more than "luck" for him to reach 100 at the front of this powerhouse lineup.

[TheNext44]

Your version of what is "possible" is why Las Vegas drains all the suckers of the kids college funds and the mortgage payment and send them home to the little lady and bank auditors.

Redread was trying to make the case that it was reasonable to believe Willy T would suddenly be able to do something he's never done before. Ever. He's never done what Redread suggested was reasonable in the same season. The history clearly shows that this is not "reasonable" at all. Willy would have produce in ways he never has and there's no evidence to suggest he'll be doing that at all.

By the way he was never able to score over 85 runs (83 is carer high) as the lead off hitter on two world series contending teams. I'm going to suggest that it's going to take more than "luck" for him to reach 100 at the front of this powerhouse lineup.

Personally, I think that Taveras will finish 09 with numbers close to his career numbers, maybe a tad better, which is nothing to get excited about. I agree with you on your assessment of what he probably will accomplish.

However, the very fact that he has not hit .280, stolen 60+ bases and scored 100 runs in one season, logically, is why it is reasonable to think that he might this season.

He most likely will hit near .280, as he has hit at least .278 three out his four years in the majors. I have no idea if he will steal 60 bases, I'm guessing most likely closer to 35, but if he were to steal 60+ bases and hit .280, he will most likely score close to 100 runs.

He scored 82 and 83 runs in his first two seasons, when he hit .280, had an OBP of around .325 and stole around 35 bases. If he were to keep his his average and this his OBP at .280 and add 25 more stolen bases, it is logical to assume that he will score around 8-12 more runs, or around 90-95.

Again, I don't think he will do that, since I really don't see him stealing 60 bases this season, but if he were to do the first two in one season, he would logically do the third, or very close to it.

[kaldaniels]

Look at the differece in what WT and CD are being paid.

This is nothing more than an honest question, Is WT that much better?

.

With WT, he has a track record, and as with any post-arb player, you have a decent idea of what you are going to get.

No one, and I repeat no one, can be for certain what numbers CD would put up over a 162 game season. Could be a lot better than Willy, yet they could be terrible once the book is out on CD.

So sure, Willy T is being paid a premium compared to CD. However, anyone with a non-jaded view on the big picture should see that this is the least of the Reds worrys at this point. It seems the argument is being made that CD is equal to WT (and again, that is not a proven thing right now)...but in the big picture is 2-3 million all that meaningful?

Bigger fish to fry folks.

[Kc61]

If Wily T can be more selective and avoid too many popups caused by uppercutting, I think he can substantially improve his BA and OBP numbers. I don't think his power numbers will improve at this point, they could get better later in his career if he fills out more.

I've never believed that a player is limited by his career stats. Sometimes coaching, maturation, avoiding injuries, and working on particular tendencies can make a lot of difference.

If career stats were determinative, Hairston could never have had the kind of year in 2008 that he did have. We'll see if it was a fluke, but even if it was - it happened and he contributed to the ballclub.

I'm not predicting Taveras' numbers for this year. But I don't know how anyone can say what his BA or OBP will be unless they have an intense knowledge of the player and of the Reds' program for him. IMO the Reds thought he could improve when they acquired Wily T and he probably can.

And by the way, the Reds were right when they said WT is a plus on defense. The various defensive measures show him as a high echelon CF, at least so far this year. They may be right about his offensive potential as well.

[Ron Madden]

Yes, it's worth it.

In the offseason, the only OF spot the team was comfortable with was RF.
Redszone was comfortable with Dickerson, and Walt wasn't (for good reason).

Tavares has been an above average CF so far. Even if Dickerson OPSed 1.000 this season, it would still be a great move, because that fills both LF and CF.



Someone had a good point on this thread. Although Dickerson has been disappointing, he's a useful reserve player. It's not as if he's been buried in AAA. Depth is a good thing to have. Tavares is definitely earning his 3 million

Now if Taveres was making 10 million/year, I could see people agonizing over his salary.. But we have guys like Phillips, Cordero and Arroyo that are making a lot more money.. their salaries are seldom brought up. Occasionally, yes..
but not nearly to the extent of Tavares. Heck, Tavares is making less than Weathers. 3 million/year for a FA average CF is a great deal.

This offseason the Reds needed to aquire a power bat to play LF and to improve their options at SS.

I believe it's too early to say Dickerson has been a disappointment. Dickerson, Bruce or Hairston can play CF as well as Taveras can.

What bothers me is the money spent on Taveras, Weathers and Lincoln could have went towards a power bat to play LF and a better option at SS.

[Ron Madden]

With WT, he has a track record, and as with any post-arb player, you have a decent idea of what you are going to get.

No one, and I repeat no one, can be for certain what numbers CD would put up over a 162 game season. Could be a lot better than Willy, yet they could be terrible once the book is out on CD.

So sure, Willy T is being paid a premium compared to CD. However, anyone with a non-jaded view on the big picture should see that this is the least of the Reds worrys at this point. It seems the argument is being made that CD is equal to WT (and again, that is not a proven thing right now)...but in the big picture is 2-3 million all that meaningful?

Bigger fish to fry folks.

Yes, Willie Taveras has a track record and that's what scares me.

Nobody knows anything for certain.

We can see what Taveras has done in the past and pretty much expect more of the same in the future.

I'm not some evil hermit sitting here sticking pins in a Willie Taveras voodoo doll. I want him to do well as much as you do.

.

[redsmetz]

Yes, Willie Taveras has a track record and that's what scares me.

Nobody knows anything for certain.

We can see what Taveras has done in the past and pretty much expect more of the same in the future.

I'm not some evil hermit sitting here sticking pins in a Willie Taveras voodoo doll. I want him to do well as much as you do.

.

While prior statistics MAY indicate what will happen in the future, a player is NEVER locked into that. Statistics are not a predetermination of what will actually happen. That is the basic flaw, IMO, of statements such as your's. It's just not true. It could well be that we're witnessing the oft mentioned "career year" (which can never be fully recognized in the midst of said career). It also could be that we're seeing a player who finally "gets it." Or, it could be that he will revert to what his career norms have been thus far. But we can't unequivocally "pretty much expect more of the same."

[jojo]

While prior statistics MAY indicate what will happen in the future, a player is NEVER locked into that. Statistics are not a predetermination of what will actually happen. That is the basic flaw, IMO, of statements such as your's. It's just not true. It could well be that we're witnessing the oft mentioned "career year" (which can never be fully recognized in the midst of said career). It also could be that we're seeing a player who finally "gets it." Or, it could be that he will revert to what his career norms have been thus far. But we can't unequivocally "pretty much expect more of the same."

Expectations for a player's performance should be colored by a reasonable estimate of the player's true skill level. A BA of .280 seems not only possible but reasonable. The stolen bases and runs scored are much bigger hurdles IMHO.

[redsmetz]

Expectations for a player's performance should be colored by a reasonable estimate of the player's true skill level. A BA of .280 seems not only possible but reasonable. The stolen bases and runs scored are much bigger hurdles IMHO.

I don't disagree with that at all. That leaves room for the fact that something may click and cause improvement, while recognizing the limitations the players previous stats indicate.

As for stolen bases, I got to the game late, so I didn't see Taveras' first time on base, but I gather from a comment behind me that Taveras was picked off, but a balk was called. I did see him get picked off and thrown out stealing later in the game. I wonder if he has previously just gotten by on his speed alone and if it wouldn't do him wonders to work with someone like a someone who was a stealing whiz to help him get better leads and better reads on pitchers. Just a thought.

[edabbs44]

Your version of what is "possible" is why Las Vegas drains all the suckers of the kids college funds and the mortgage payment and send them home to the little lady and bank auditors.

Not at all. Those things (minus the runs scored) have happened in the past. There is no reason why he wouldn't be able to do them all in one season. None whatsoever. Just because he hasn't done them all in one season doesn't mean it isn't possible. If that is so, then that means Edwin will never hit over 16 HRs and over .251 in the same season for the rest of his career.

Do you think that the statement above is accurate?

Redread was trying to make the case that it was reasonable to believe Willy T would suddenly be able to do something he's never done before. Ever. He's never done what Redread suggested was reasonable in the same season. The history clearly shows that this is not "reasonable" at all. Willy would have produce in ways he never has and there's no evidence to suggest he'll be doing that at all.

Again, Willy has done the things that Redread has suggested (minus runs scored), just not in one year. Why wouldn't he be able to do all of these things in one season? If your answer is b/c he has never done them all in one season, then that is a bogus response.

By the way he was never able to score over 85 runs (83 is carer high) as the lead off hitter on two world series contending teams. I'm going to suggest that it's going to take more than "luck" for him to reach 100 at the front of this powerhouse lineup.

The fact that "runs scored" is a team dependent stat has been beaten into all of us around here. It is more than possible for him to improve in that category. Why can't he score 100 runs this year?

If this is so, then someone better tell the stat keepers that Jhonny Peralta couldn't have scored 104 runs last season since it never happened before.


Your WT bias is showing.

[Falls City Beer]

I don't understand why it's such a big deal to just say that so far Taveras has been an asset to the team. And not a terribly expensive one. They're paying Arroyo 10 mill to post 6 + ERA and FIP. But Taveras is the target?

[Sea Ray]

I don't disagree with that at all. That leaves room for the fact that something may click and cause improvement, while recognizing the limitations the players previous stats indicate.

As for stolen bases, I got to the game late, so I didn't see Taveras' first time on base, but I gather from a comment behind me that Taveras was picked off, but a balk was called. I did see him get picked off and thrown out stealing later in the game. I wonder if he has previously just gotten by on his speed alone and if it wouldn't do him wonders to work with someone like a someone who was a stealing whiz to help him get better leads and better reads on pitchers. Just a thought.

The pickoff was a bad call by the 2nd base umpire. He was in before the tag.

In Spring training Chris Welsh was raving about what a student Willy is at the art of stealing bases. He was very impressed with how much study he put into his craft of base stealing