Seriously. What the HELL is he talking about?Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
Seriously. What the HELL is he talking about?
The funny thing is that by replacing Dickerson with Nix, and then Taveras with Dickerson, Dusty has unintentionally picked the right players for the right positions.“First they want (Laynce) Nix to play instead of Dickerson,” Baker said. “... Now they want Dickerson instead of Taveras. It’s a long season, and you’ve got to go with a guy’s track record as well as what he’s doing now too. Quite honestly, I’m getting a little tired of having to testify to who I play and why, and how long and when.”
Let's just hope he continues a platoon of Dickerson and Taveras in CF. Dickerson by himself in CF would be better, but that is asking a lot from Dusty.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I understand what you are saying, but I am not amused.
This is a dude that gets paid $3.5M a year to run our favorite baseball team.
His comments are very disturbing. Very.
Dickerson went 2-for-4 with a double tonight. He was on base more tonight than Taveras has been in his last 46 atbats.
Guess where he'll be tomorrow?
Go Gators!
Methinks Dusty and Marvin go to the same "How to Deal with the Media & Fans" course. And both are apparently failing.
OK, Dickerson is now the starting CF, period. It's obvious he's the best man for the job and has earned it. Anyone can see that. Oh wait, Dusty is the manager, therefore logic might not apply here. Stay tuned.
I don't know, Marvin makes Dusty look like Joe Torre. Marvin is abrasive on his best day; a complete baffoon on his worst. At least Dusty knows how to talk to the media a little bit (recent examples not included, please). Marvin is completely clueless when it comes to handing the media. He is a train wreck in almost every press conference I see him in. Can't say that about Dusty.
Not sure what this proves, but I broke out the binomial calculator to look at Taveras's production. As has been pointed out, since hitting a high of .322, he has gone 8 for 94 for .085 BA. The odds against doing this by chance seem very remote to me. I used a binomial distribution to try to get an idea of how long the odds are.
The binomial permits assessing the probability of a particular number of outcomes given the a specific number of trials and a probability of success on each trial. If we let his BA be the probability of getting a hit and the number of AB's equal the number of trials, then we can get an idea of how unusually bad this streak has been.
Of course, we don't know what his true batting average should be. For argument's sake let's assume it is .200. I think even his most vocal critics would concede that. That means that on average he should collect a hit every five AB's.
The probability of hitting safely fewer than 9 times in 94 AB's for a .200 hitter comes out to 1 in 500.
OK, now let's be a little more generous and give him a true average of .230. Then, the probability of fewer than 9 hits in 94 ABs drops to 1 in 5000.
Now, let's be super generous and say that the best estimate of his true average is his current lifetime BA, .277. Then, the probability of his current run of futility is less than 1 in 100,000.
The fallacy in this approach is that the trials (AB's) are not strictly independent. Nor is the opposing pitching always the same. Still, I would tend to reject the possibilities that he is either that bad or that unlucky.
He is neither but then again his tepid contact is giving BABIP no chance. He may be a a bit unlucky during his slump but he's mostly earning it with weak contact.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Well, if he's tired of doing so, he can always find another line of work.
I like Dusty. I really do. I defended him to the death on here when he was hired, and probably sacrificed a bit of my reputation to do so.
But enough is enough. I was a substitute teacher this past school year, and one of the teachers I subbed for frequently had a sign in his room, and it said this: "DON'T DO STUPID!"
Dusty Baker, I give you this advice.
Dusty must be getting it from other quarters, maybe his daughter now has a crush on Chris Dickerson?
In reality, Dusty is fully aware of Willy's problems and he's obviously struggling to put a positive spin on it and his handling of the situation.
If Dusty is going to talk about what we as fans wanted, he should throw in there: "First they didn't want to sign Taveras in the first place..."
First they didn't want to sign Dusty in the first place....
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Fake rep points in your favor.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote